Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

At least get the title of the RNS right. Incompetence of the highest order
I wish I could see Elliot's reaction! I wonder if they are increasing their stake.

Interesting that guidance hasn't changed for this year or next. Although is that pinned on 'continued pipeline strength' rather than conversion. The assumption was Erwinase US sales to commence next quarter after approval this quarter. After building inventory and a relatively slow rollout I can't imagine they had it contributing much this year. A decent chunk of Porton's fee must have been linked to approval which will also help.

The rest of the business must be doing pretty well, 7% down seems a little overdone but the market has spoken

No1Scarlet, no one is interested in UK small caps, especially those with a crowded 85% institutional overhang. You have to wonder how long the large shareholders will accept such chronic underperformance. Exponent is a strange one, involved since 2012, a pretty long time by PE standard. They took it over and then listed it and sat back and watched 90% of its value disappear. Toscafund are snakes, I would prefer to see them on another register to this one. They'll bend the rules and screw the minority if they can. Do we know anything about Ravensworth? Whats their angle?

I'd say that their case would be that the business has been mismanaged and that if management focused solely on services then its EBITDA should be much higher. The 33m is historic, consensus has total EBITDA growing 8-12m p.a.a over the next few years, I don't know the breakdown between services/non services but if a lot of its services then that would change the equation. The healthcare sector is hot right now, there should be loads of new deals in the pipeline which could support higher future earnings, how much is future earnings potential worth?

Not much to say now

Gas Producer Behind Empire of Dying Wells Says It Will Fix Leaks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/diversified-energy-says-it-will-plug-more-wells-and-fix-leaks

Elliot wants to split the business up. Believes the sum of the parts is more than the whole and that a good business has been mismanaged. The services business is the jewel. The acquisition of UDG was on an EV/EBITDA multiple of over 15x. Clinigen is valued at half that.

https://news.sky.com/story/activist-elliott-floats-break-up-of-pharma-services-group-clinigen-12404003

Didn't listen myself, don't know if anyone has any insight to add.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_40ce36a3d230a72ef1b7f6058d1b0a52/dgoc/db/557/4519/pdf/Diversified+Energy+Capital+Markets+Day+2021.pdf

CMD I think you’re right on one hand. There’s definitely a discount. But I don’t see this prevailing. Free cash flow yields at +20% don’t stick around for a long. And DEC seem committed on being an ESG leader in their field which should get the share back to parity at least, but it might take a while

A liberal use of the word 'approaching' by me...the contract is for £1m per annum which wouldn't quite get to £30m, but a bit of growth and another contract or 2 and it could be. However I think the IDE contribution will fall, there must be alot of unprofitable business in there which will get ripped out as soon as possible

I was wondering if there was any brokerage coverage, saw that Allenby is the nomad. Nothing post IDE

http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-clco.html

Thanks for sharing Insiderknowledge. DEC section from 40.40. Good insight to the type of analysis being thrown around out there by PIs. Which in this case is pretty limited. They lose credibility a bit when they refer to them as 'oil wells' and producing 'huge amounts of barrels of oil'

I'm surprised by the size of this deal. Assuming the other areas of the business don't fall next year's revenue should be approaching £30m. I wonder if they need to recruit new staff to service to service this contract and how scalable their tech really is . The 'further upside potential' is exciting, particularly when considering the recent growth in digital transformation services. Silver Bullet listed recently with a market cap of £35m or so, and only $4m in sales. Probably too small to be this customer but could be TPX Impact, which has been experiencing pretty phenomenal growth

https://investors.tpximpact.com/

Some very large round blue numbers. Must be some transfers

That acquisition multiple on Tanos looks incredibly attractive now. Will be paid off in not much more than a year

On DEC's EV not much to move the dial financially but its very interesting to see that undeveloped assets can still be sold, despite all the anti hydrocarbons rhetoric. And a nice little bump to cash flow.

I'd like to know who's got the chutzpah to buy these assets, bold contrarian move. There will be a time in the future when the US realises it has underinvested in transition energy and assets like these with short term development potential will be valuable

Fiasco is a pretty good word for it. Don't think I have seen a more botched director sell down. Surely he could have got a better price than 80p? It seems like something more was happening than CJ just getting sick and that he has taken a hit of several million just to take a parting shot at the company. The story about him getting covid/long covid is only a rumour. I can understand the company not wanting to encroach on his privacy but some kind of explanation is warranted. Unfortunately now the company seems to have adopted a forced liquidation price as its value, but I think that will change as the market becomes more comfortable with the growth profile after a few more results and this all blows over.

Taken an absolute battering this last month...6.50 last month and is now closer to 5 for short term. Hopefully DEC has been buying selling down those contracts, them and all the other producers I'm sure

Staying above 18p will be an achievement

It reminds me a lot of Loopup. Strong pipeline, lofty sales goals which they said could simply be achieved by adding new sales pods. I got sucked in while the rest of the market was selling. Have a look at the chart on that one. Painful lesson there that stocks that appear cheap are often cheap for a reason. Saying that Loop wasn't experiencing 30%+ revenue growth.

So yes keeping an eye on this one. Next update in January will be critical. One part of me wants to buy more but the other wonders why no one else is

Yeah just a marketing exercise. The investor meet pres was similar. Precious few details on numbers and concrete growth plans.

Whats interesting is that Numis has EPS rising from 7.9p this year to 10.8p next year. That puts the company on a 1 year forward P/E > 8, but with growth of 37%. Clearly something ain't right there. I guess the market isn't quite convinced by the proposition of merely throwing people at the market and producing sales.

I was wondering about the dividend myself. I don't really know how they get a dividend of 0.75p... this equates to about £850k, which at 30% would give an implied adjusted PAT of £2.8m. I can't see a single reference to 'adjusted PAT', only PAT which is £3.3m. Using this number would give a dividend 17% higher

Looks like mkt doesn't believe the story Harry. SP is plumbing all time lows. Its a little difficult to reconcile the train wreck of performance since IPO (and failure to acknowledge on delivery of lofty promises) with the optimism for the future.

Reaction looks pretty harsh given earnings expectation downgrade of around 10%. Does the market think there may be more to come? Looks like fund or funds drip feeding algo sells pretty constantly since the trading update. I'm a buyer below 80p if it gets there

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/965555/argentex-group-says-business-is-on-right-trajectory-following-record-first-half-performance-965555.html

Saying that, that big block of 80% across 3 holders is probably enough to put a lot of people off. Can never be sure of their long term commitment, although the Toscafund sell down and addition of at least 2 new institutions is quite positive

Exponent must have been patiently waiting for an opportunity to exit their investment but the continuous share slide since IPO meant they had to top up at 10p, 95% down on the price around listing, rather than selling down