Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I'm hoping for a further fall so I can load up some more but it seems very sticky. Tin price is really defying the sea of red lately. I cant really see the SP not being higher in 6 months time when the 100t/month kicks in. Doesn't take a genius to multiply production by the tin price and a 40% margin to work out the monthly cash flow potential. Who knows where tin will be then as well

I'd say they could get to 3.5-4p this year. My rationale is that 1x £30m sales gives a Mcap of 30m, or 2.5x the current MCap. I think this is reasonable if they can show they are getting costs under control in the same way as Adept4 and there is a view of break even cash flow

A bit more flavour. So if this work was divided evenly amongst all firms DWF share would be even this means they could be looking at £18m per annum. I presume they were already on the government central legal panel which is why it wasn't announced.

Clyde & Co and DAC Beachcroft are among law firms to have won places on a legal panel advising the NHS on resolving concerns and disputes, worth a combined £193 million. 11 law firms have been handed places on the NHS Resolution – a branch of the Department of Health and Social Care, providing advice to the NHS on resolving concerns and disputes – legal panel, which comes into effect on 1 March 2022 and will run for three years. The panel framework comprises two sets of law firms and has a combined value of £193 million per year. Clyde & Co, DAC Beachcroft, Browne Jacobson, DWF Law, Hill Dickinson, Kennedys, Weightmans, Hempsons, Bevan Brittan and Capsticks have won roles on the first panel, which has an estimated annual expenditure of £188 million per annum.Panel two will operate based on a significantly smaller £5 million per annum. According to a statement, the first panel will manage claims for NHS members and beneficiaries across hospital Trusts, GP practices and independent sector providers under clinical and non-clinical indemnity schemes. The second panel will provide legal advice to NHS Resolution and other branches of the Department of Health and Social care, covering regulatory, health and employment law. DAC Beachcroft, Weightmans, Bevan Brittan, Blake Morgan, Browne Jacobson, Capsticks, Hempsons and Hill Dickinson make up panel two, with all spots awarded after a competitive procurement process. Head of insurance at DWF Glyn Jones said: “This is our first appointment to this panel and we look forward to establishing our relationship with this new client, delivering our recognised high quality and innovative approach to proactively resolving claims in support of NHS Resolution’s strategic aims and providing value for money for the taxpayer.” Last month, 14 law firms including DWF, DLA Piper and Pinsent Masons were named as suppliers on the U.K. Government’s central legal panel valued at £430 million.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/refocused-protection-set-to-resume-growth-2/30413

Why would a capital raising be due? Cash at 30 June 2021 was £1.5m with no liabilities. Then add on the raise in July with the mystery institution (say £900k after expenses) gives cash of £2.4m pro forma at 30 June.

Cash admin expenses have been running at £650kp.a. and I'm guessing the 5 drill holes for Copperhead cost $A200/metre x 2500 metres = $A500k/£280k. This is about $A170k per month for 3 months, might be a bit low so lets say £350k.

So after this drilling campaign has been completed there should be £2.4m-£400k admin for half year -£350k Copperhead = £1.72m at 31 December 2021. Maybe a few lab expenses on top of that so say £1.5m. That should be enough to get to the end of the year or have I missed something?

Will take an age to churn through Tosca stake at this rate!

PR77 Phase 1 expansion construction and commissioning was confirmed to be on track for Q2 22 in the 15/12/21 operations update. I am assuming this means June so probably safe to assume from July/August 2022 production of 100t tin per month

https://www.investegate.co.uk/afritin-mining-ltd--atm-/rns/quarterly-production-update/202112150700056630V/

Sentiment around Avon is extremely weak so doesn't take much to make investors scatter. It feels like a decent recovery play with the difficult decisions made by the board and prospects for the remainder of the business but the 'medium term' horizon is too long for most investors

New target is 1120p. 1740 was from August last year. I also don't think much of broker targets, if they were any use they would have marked it down before the SP tanked. What's the point of tracking the SP down after the fact?

Looks like yesterday was due to "Berenberg cuts target price to 1120p from 1740p"

Another ridiculous update from peer AFX. 67% revenue growth! I've lost count how many times this has been upgraded in the year. We could be ecstatic with half that number.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/alpha-fx-group-plc--afx-/rns/trading-update-and-intended-board-change/202201190700078798Y/

What it does say is that the model of throwing sales people at potential customers works. Hopefully AGFX can prove that too. The SP seems primed for disappointment seems to looking for an excuse to dip below 80p.

If 2021 is anything to go by we are due a trading update for 9 months performance within the next few days. But if its anything like last year's there's not really much point. This was one of the least informative TUs I have ever read and seems to indicate that they don't know how the year will turn out.

"Argentex is pleased to report that trading has continued to improve following the announcement of its Interim Results on 20 November 2020. Although the full effect of the latest lockdown has yet to be felt, the recent Brexit trade agreement and the successful implementation of the vaccine programme for Covid-19 provides the Board of Argentex with confidence that this encouraging trend, driven by a return to historic client trading behaviour, will continue for the remainder of the financial year to 31 March 2021."

Looks like that last 3.8% might get a little bit disorderly... might get another buying opportunity under 16p

Free float now around 24%. Good riddance to Tosca. 2% went to Ravensworth, leaving 6% unaccounted for

Exponent 33.8% 15/12/2020
Ravensworth 29.5% 14/01/2022
Toscafund 3.84% 17/01//2021
CIP Merchant Capital 3.6% 29/3/2021
Hestia 5.6% 28/10/2021

And 1% offloaded by Tosca on Tuesday, should see that come down more from yesterday

Added 2%. Interesting. Doesn’t help with free float

Yeah Tosca was trying to orchestrate a merger between HSS and Speedy for at least 5 years. The fact that they appear to be exiting suggests that this is highly unlikely. I think HSS are equally as likely to be a buyer given their net debt position and ambitions

It's hard to say what the intentions of the major shareholders are. They have sat by idly while the share price has been destroyed so they seem to be very patient and supportive of management's transformation plan. There is no way the major holders will let this go to an outsider on the cheap and I think if it was an inside job something would have happened by now. My guess is that they would be willing to hold on to this for a few more years and sell when the market has recognised the value and a higher SP makes a takeover easier to swallow.

It's easier to focus on how cheap the company is right now and that despite all the positive change the SP is languishing. I've spent quite a few hours crunching numbers and reading through all the news and it really does seem to be a strange anomaly.

120m shares moved today and suddenly jumped to 17p to sell must be something happening

A whole lot of chunky trades again today. Over 70m shares going through between yesterday and today so far. Tosca had around 83m at last count so perhaps a push to dispose of the lot. Tosca must be licking their wounds over this one. Be interesting to see who is taking them on, hopefully we see a more diverse and attractive share register soon. The 80% overhang is really holding this back

While Toscafund are up on the rights issue they have been in since the IPO and watched the value of their investment decline by more than 90% since then. Toscafund has held stakes in HSS and Speedy for many years, attempting to influence the two to merge. It seems they have failed so are looking to exit HSS. I've picked up a few of their shares, I think anything below 15p presents irresistible value.

Top holders now look like this, less than 18% free float available

Exponent 33.8% 15/12/2020
Ravensworth 27.5% 27/10/2021
Toscafund 11.84% 30/12/2021
CIP Merchant Capital 3.6% 29/3/2021
Hestia 5.6% 28/10/2021