Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

There is less than 80% free float. Doesn't take much to move the price either way. My guess is sellers dumping into low liquidity. Theres pretty much no broker coverage or consensus that I can see and the SP is falling. Not much to interest your average punter.

2021 H1 EPS = 1.61p. If we say 2022 is a similar year then 2022 EPS = 1.6 x 2 = 3.2p
However, interest reduced from £15m p.a to £3m under the recent refinancing. £12m in pre tax tax savings = EPS of 1.3p

My 2022 EPS is therefore 3.2 + 1.3 = 4.5p = a P/E of around 3x on a price of 14p. Also consider:
- Net debt of less than 1x EBITDA. Probably debt free by 2023
- Free cash flow > £50m
- Margins are rising

It hurts when the SP continues to decline but sometimes you need to trust your research and look ahead. The share price is the only thing about this business which is in a negative trend

Considering all the accomplishments of the company over the last year it's surprising the SP is at this level. Liquidity has been poor as usual and there is a pretty good chance that HPS is trying to offload its shares. And maybe Tosca as well.

After the sale of All Season net debt is at 1x EBITDA, which is at the bottom end of their target 1-1.5x. Free cash flow was £29m for only 6 months in H121. Current Mcap is £100m. Only paying out £10m is easily achievable and would support a yield of 10% and allow some upgrading of their fleet, which I'm guessing is probably overdue with the focus on reducing net debt throughout the pandemic.

I've been been adding here recently, its trading at a significant discount to Speedy which is unwarranted and I'm expecting some chunky cash returns next year

Thats because it's a different Diversified Energy. DEC doesn't operate in the Carolinas nor is it in the propane business
https://www.diversifiedenergy.com/

A quick comparison with Equals yields a fascinating result,

Consensus Measure Current Year, AGFX, Equals
Sales, 36.3, 38.3
Sales Growth, 29%, 32%
EBITDA, 11.4, 5.25

Market Cap AGFX £100m, EQLS £120m

For 20% less MCap you get a business with similar sales and sales growth but with double the EBITDA. AGFX is undervalued against Equals on any measure. I don't need to do the comparison with AFX, its even more undervalued doing that comparison

This interviewer is great, he really makes Anthony squirm. The contrast in style between the clear, direct questions and bumbling answers is quite stark. I had to go back and listen 3-4 times around 26.30 but am I right in saying that the lithium pilot plant will complete in 3-6 months?

Its so small no one seems to have noticed :-)

Positive updates from Equals and AFX today

https://www.investegate.co.uk/equals-group-plc--eqls-/rns/trading-update/202112080700068858U/

https://www.investegate.co.uk/alpha-fx-group-plc--afx-/rns/trading-update/202112080700068960U/

Chance of a higher bid now that the board have put the company in play

Godshare you were spot on. I thought they might fight a bit harder but looks like they all want to get the deal done

That would be the market view. But the board could argue the following against a low ball bid:

- the profit warning was due to a temporary Covid headwind and its impact on hospital based treatments
- the Erwinase decision is a delay, not a permanent reduction in value
- the services side has significantly strengthened over the last year with a lot of new business wins. The future looks very promising for this side of the business, more so than a year ago

I took this up for a trade so I would be happy if the board could agree on a decent price, with a clean structure, maybe around 900p in cash. Of course a bidding war would be even better. But just playing the devil's advocate here, I don't think the board will give this up easily and it may come down to institutional support

It would appear so. Something is motivating buyers, possibly shorts closing

There were rumours of an offer from Advent last year pitched at £10.50+. The SP spiked from £7.30 ish to over 9. Conditions and prospects have improved substantially since then. I think the odds are stacked against a friendly deal happening, it doesn't seem like anything less than £10 will get a look in

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8417997/Advent-International-bought-Cobham-eyes-Clinigen.html

Who feels sorry for GLG with a short position of 1.1%? Increased the day before the news, what a shame for them

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B89J2419/

My sense is the board seem pretty hostile here and PE always want to scoop a good deal so there is a pretty good chance that the offer is rejected and the SP tanks back to 650p. But there is simply no way an offer can be less than the current price and I don't think can be less than 800. Egos and pride are on the line but do they have the plans and pipeline to justify this? This plays into Singer's hands perfectly, the board will be forced to consider other strategic options and showing their hand if this does end up falling over. Corporate machinations at their finest!

My guess is the board would consider something around 900p. There are a lot of institutions on the register who would probably go with the board’s recommendation. An offer at 750p would really be low balling it and just waste time and be embarrassing for everyone

Can't blame you, could get messy here. Board will think its worth more than the offer no doubt, but perhaps there is enough of a disgruntled base that they can get a hostile bid over the line. A low ball offer could also expose the company to a bidding war. There are at least 2 parties now which think that the company is undervalued. How many more are there? At its peak it hit 1200p and big things are being predicted for the pharm sector. Although they don't have a huge stake having Eliot on board should make for some drama at least

The SP was £8.50 in June and pre covid £9.50, I would be surprised and pretty disappointed if it went for less than £8. A 30% premium on a heavily depressed base of 6 would at least get to 7.80. Something too low would be seen as extremely opportunistic

Future potential share issues, felt really sick when I added this all up. Surely I've made a mistake and my numbers are too high?!

2011/2015/2017 Plans
Shares 6.833m
Options 3.78m. (£1.6 strike price)
RSU 7.63m
Pool increase 6.85 (IPO related)
Total 25.09m

Additional IPO Bonus (no obvious performance targets)
Druker 3.75m
Carmi 1.65m
Niri 1.35m
Total 6.75m

Grand total 31.843
@ £5.4

£171.95m

https://investors.tremorinternational.com/static-files/076e0ecf-93fe-4f7e-90ee-19fbf62b9733

The share price is reflecting the fwd gas strip tanking over the last month and the recent contraction in risk appetite. Its as simple as that. On the equity side the company already has a solid institutional base which has stepped up repeatedly for the various placings over the years (although always at some discount). On the debt side the company has a syndicate of 17 lenders, 5 of which were added in August. The company has no problem with support from institutions which have already made themselves comfortable with the AROs, hedging losses and ESG credentials with what I assume is extensive due diligence. I would say they crave this kind of high yielding 'transitional' energy company. Its the paperhanded hedge funds which are in and out who are most likely to be influencing short term price movements

Unbelievable recovery. I wonder what time Paul Singer and his team wake up in New York. I bet he's an early riser. 7am London time is 2am in NY. Volume today is 4x the average for November, close to 2% of total issued shares and only half way through the day. I think we will see a notification from Elliot or another of the institutions tomorrow

Wild ride there, down to 540 and back, someone is loading, Eliot must have taken some more, if they were happy to buy over 6 then at that price they couldn't resist. Expect to see some more action from them in the near future