Member Info for QBArtist

The Company announces that on 11 July 2014, the eighth annual conditional award of shares under the Performance Share Plan 2007 ("PSP") was made to two executive directors and eight senior managers. Mr Christopher Malley, Chief Executive, was granted a conditional award of 240,000 Ordinary Shares. Following this award, the outstanding number of Ordinary Shares awarded to Mr Malley under the PSP is 319,000. Mr Robert Brooksbank, Group Finance Director, was granted a conditional award of 112,000 Ordinary Shares. Following this award, the total outstanding number of Ordinary Shares awarded to Mr Brooksbank under the PSP is 169,000. These awards have a split performance condition whereby half will vest after three years based on TSR performance compared to the FTSE Small Cap Index and half will vest based on EPS performance (growth in underlying earnings excluding IAS19 pension accounting) over a three year period.

Saw an article that says Unipixel share price might bounce on short covering. To be honest, all I can see is that Unipixel have made some progress, but it still seems too early to talk of sales orders and full scale production. Dunno what all this means for Carclo's share price except to agree with Lindon's assessment that there is no danger to Carclo.

Update call at 4.30pm ET; likely to impact carclo's share price given that it's a competitor.

RNS news that the directors have bought some shares. Also UniPixel down 10% yesterday. Might be related to "Seeking Alpha" article that UniPixel has not commenced production of its touch sensors (as was reported (allegedly?)) and that the update scheduled for 25th June is unlikely to reveal much.

Might be relevant that intel has raised guidance on the back of bouyant business Pc demand. Would be interesting to see what the demand for touch screen PCs is like.

Thanks Lindon. That's interesting. So maybe that the rumours of atmel being in licensing talks in asia are not exaggerated. By the way, I have seen that liberium seem to have reduced their earning forecasts for 2015. To me their estimates seems a bit conservative because carclo should achieve better earnings this year just by standing still. I did note from the earnings release that the amortisation of development costs is now over 10 years down from 12 previously. Therefore agree with both gocarclo and you on the share price. i.e it deserves to be higher, but at the moment probably won't go higher until some of the promises are delivered.

Lindon / gocarclo - its is always interesting to read your exchange of views. A follow on question to that of gocarclo for Lindon - the two things you mention, if achieved would I think send the share price rocketing back to levels seen in the past. Do you think that there is a more of a chance of a middle ground scenario i.e. the existing agreements with HP, Asus etc start bringing in reasonable revenues, so as to give time for the other businesses you mention such as printed electronics can take off in the future?

Using another valuation method – the Capital Asset Valuation Model (CAPM), on current financials and forecasts I get to following valuations for Carclo shares: Current risk free rate (30 year govt bond) is 3.5% The FT gives a Beta for Carclo of 0.85. Assume a 3% risk premium for investing in equities.Carclo’s book value per share calculated as 114p (on 2014 results) Risk free rate + risk premium x Beta = 3.5% + 3% x 0.85 = 6.1% as the required return of return (RRR) for investing in Carclo shares. On a book value of 114p, and EPS 6.1, the return is 5.4%, below the RRR 6.1%. Therefore the share price would have to fall to 100p to give the RRR of 6.1%. However the market is forward looking and current forecasts are for an EPS of 8.2p in 2015, and 12p in 2016. Taking 2015, the return is 8.2/114p = 7.2%. This means that the share price would have to rise to 135p to give the RRR. For 2016, on a forecast EPS of 12p the model gives a valuation of 197p. Discounting this back using the RRR to present value gives a valuation for the shares of around 175p now. Clearly the market does not believe the 12p EPS forecast for 2016 given where the share price is right now. Out of interest, 12 months ago the forecast EPS for 2015 was 20p. Using CAPM, this would have valued the shares at 331p (if you look at the charts, the shares were trading at about 350-370p 12 months ago). Six months ago, the EPS forecast for 2015 had dropped to 13.7p. On those forecasts CAPM gives a valuation of 226p. The Share price six months ago was 260-275p. Hope this analysis helps investors.

I agree with Rivaldo that eps of 8p in 2015 is realistic. 2014 PE ratio is 21x; and 2015 PE is 16x; if market accepts a an eps growth rate of 20% pa on average for the next 3 years, then to get a PEG (PE divided by growth rate) ratio of 1 on the 2015 EPS the share price would have to rise to160p per share (8p x 20 =160). If the growth story gains credibility through contract wins, license agreements etc it would be quite normal for a share price to overshoot current forecast PEG ratios. GLA.

Basic EPS 5.5p; Underlying EPS 6.1p; Market forecasts were 6p Dividend is in line at 2.65p for the full year. Management working with partners for volume growth in touch screen; "Working on a number of projects" re printed electronics. Only limited need for additional capex in CIT. Additional bank funding in place at up to £26m. Pension surplus. Results look in line, with management focused on delivering future growth. GLA.

Topped up this morning but only got partial execution coz the share price has shot up again. In case there is any doubt, the product is called XSense, which is a registered trade mark. Wish the shorters well.

Thanks Gocarclo - I think we are both reading from the same page. I don't think the coffee analogy is too far out though. Being a non-tech person a lot of the technical stuff does not make sense to me. It's not easy for me to see what distinguishes the various touch providers. I can only see that Xsense distinguishes itself by being skinnier than the other products and allowing curved products. There might be a pricing issues, but I think it is fair for management to try and get a premium price initially when launching a new product. If there are fewer contract wins because of uncompetitive pricing, management will have to reduces prices. Carclo's last statement commented on price competition and so unfortunately prices will have to come down and margins will be less than previously thought. That however does not led me to think that xsense will not succeed. On the contrary, given the way we consumers crave this new touch technology and want thinner, smaller, lighter products I am willing to and have staked my money on this through Carclo shares. Investor impatience probably wasn't helped by the capital raising at 431p per share in 2012 in which I suspect expectations were raised with the institutional investors. My assessment is whether the shares should be held at today's prices, and my view is that there is much more of a chance of the shares going up than down. Obviously the news flow has to be monitored closely.

share price is up 5% today on very good volume, and IMO it will continue to rise ahead of the results on 10 June. Haven't seen any reasoned argument as to why the share price should drop to 50p, and so don't believe it. I think the correct analogy is which coffee shop I should go to. They all look pretty much the same for me, some of them offer caramel shots, some offer skinny double shot cappuccinos, and some offer regular filter coffee. I might have a preference for a particular brand, but at the end of the day, as long as the coffee is not disgusting I am happy to try all, and my main concerns would be how much the coffee is going to cost me, what the customer service is like, and how long I have to wait for it. I have not read anything here that suggests there is something fundamentally wrong with xsense and therefore at current share price levels am of the view that it offers very good prospects for a decent investment return.

Thanks for your comments everyone! The message I get is that you will either get very rich or very poor very soon with this stock! As a holder sitting on a loss I hope its the former!

Thanks for your comments Lindon - I hadn't considered a write off risk. But this has led me to look again Carclo's balance sheet in more detail. In the 2013 accounts, goodwill in the accounts was £21.6m, of which barely £1m is attributable to CIT. There is a further £22.6m as intangible assets which represent "Patents & Development", but I was unable to see what it relates to from the accounts. Is this this the capitalised capex that you think is at risk of writedowns if orders don't start coming in soon? Would you not agree that to say that a write-off of £20m might be on the cards is a bit of a doomsday scenario with very low probability? As I understand it a lot of time and money has been spent by Carclo / Atmel to develop xsense, and from Carclo's recent comments the problem isn't the technology, it is the pricing because of competitive pressures. Atmel might be playing hardball to keep healthy margins given the quality of the product that has been developed (to me it does appear to have a competitive edge, although I'm no expert), but ultimately management will have to succumb to pricing pressures and drop prices because it is better to get some return on investment than nothing at all. I would have thought that if the product really isn't going to sell, then management would look for an exit strategy which would involve selling the patents etc, so it is very unlikely that there would be a risk of write offs anywhere near what you are suggesting.

I forgot to mention that yesterday I saw a TV ad for a new Samsung curved TV. How long is it going to be before we get touch screen TVs and who is best placed to provide the technology for large touch screen TVs? After 3D curved TVs, surely the only thing we are all missing now are touch screen TVs?

I had invested in this stock on the basis that eps forecast for 2014 was between 7 & 8p, but it seems that since 1 May forecasts have been reduced to 6.1p for 2014. It then rises to 8p in 2015 and then 11p 2016. The implied annualised growth rate is 25%, which I suppose has to come mainly from the CIT business. On the current share price, 2015 prospective PE is about 13.5x and PEG ratio is 0.55 - stock looks cheap (very cheap?) IF the forecasts are believed by the market. I have not been following Carclo that long and therefore do not know how good the non-CIT business is and what growth prospects it offers for the next few years. Any comments from someone who knows about the non CIT business would be appreciated. A couple of other observations (my observations only): 1. settlement of litigation: The litigation with Uni-Pixel was settled earlier in the year. Legal costs in the 1H accounts were £400k, and there will undoubtedly be further costs for 2H. These are non recurring items for 2015, therefore pre-tax profits would increase all other things remaining the same due to the absence of litigation expenses; 2. I have seen press comments about a factory closure in Scotland, with comments of job losses. The earnings will therefore be deflated in 2014 by redundancy costs; but in 2015 earnings should get a double boost due to the absence of the redundancy costs and the positive effect of the cost savings. In short what I'm saying is that in my analysis the EPS should show a healthy jump in 2015 from 2014, all other things remaining the same and in the absence of unknown shocks. Any comments from anyone who thinks there is a flaw in my thought process please do make a comment.

As far as I can tell the market cap on today's value is £72m, and net asset value is £66m; forecast eps at 7.5p gives a PE ratio of 14.7, dividend yield is nearly 3% now. Therefore do not understand why everyone wants to bail. I hope that I am not missing anything, because I am quite deep under water on this one.