Member Info for QBArtist

Presumably the traditional new year fund allocations. FTSE struggling as usual. Banks, incl. CBG doing well. Services PMI was below market consensus; there is some chatter that BoE rates cuts will even less than the even less previously thought before christmas. That is generally good news for the interest margin earners.

Okey dokey Nicktims, understood loud and clear, and thank you for your good luck wishes.

However, I will not be taking my hat off to MW just yet: By downloading data from short-tracker and looking at high, low and closing share prices of the day of the disclosed short position, I have been able to make calculation that between 31 October and 2 December MW increased its short bet from 0.54% to 1.91%, and as a very crude and simple calculation, that the average price they paid (by taking the highest share price of the relevant day) has to be a maximum 239.5p. Closing price on Friday was 232p, giving them a gain of appx 3% (if they actually shorted at the highest price of the day in the relevant period) . Taking into account risk, cost of borrowing and that an index fund would have got you at least 1.5% during that time, its not much of a return. Indeed, since 11 Dec MW has been reducing its short exposure, perhaps recognising that they might have made a wrong call in October and November?

Nicktims

"WELL DONE MARSALL WACE! I SALUTE AND THANK YOU!"

Are you trying to get a job at MW?

Yes, I suppose whatever way the CoA had gone, this was always heading to the SC to settle the matter once and for all.

Knot

Is your view that SC will overturn CoA on the frontend commission /engagement fee, or both engagement fee and the "higher interest rates for more commission" schemes?

Chid

"it won't change the facts that four shorters disagree and are putting their money where there mouth is"

Marshall Wace reduced it's short from 1.91% on 2 Dec to 1.59% on 20 Dec.

Yes, agree Nihar. I'm encouraged that the close is on the 50 day MA line. Hopefully that means the uptrend remains intact.

On the on day chart, the 20 day moving average is now supporting at around the 232 mark. Today it seems to be breaking out of the 50 day MA line (about 236). The 100 day MA line is at around 345. On the 4 hour charts though, it probably iooks like profit taking will kick in at about 255.

Which Tuesday was that? Today? Christmas eve?

Bloomberg article is dated 17 December. Thank you for telling us something that we, traders and the market already know.

RBC has issued a target price of 360p:

"RBC cuts Close Brothers price target to 360 (425) pence - 'outperform' "

My understanding is that the fixed commission was £183 for CBG. Haven't been able to find the loan value, but presumably this was a small percentage of the loan. Extrapolating the historic loan book, the impact is probably tens of millions rather than 100s, if the SC upholds, but just my guestimate.

In the Firstrand case, the fixed commission (not disclosed) was 25% of loan.........!

I'm working on the premise that CBG will have to take a hit of between £400-600m in the next two years. No dividend for FY 2025, and dividend reinstated in 2026 probably at 40% of the last dividend: 40% of 67p = 26p, that is currently around a 10% yield. Funding for the compensation payments comes from dividends not paid £100m x2 plus another £50m from the reduced dividend in FY 2026, sale of asset manager £250m. There is also some press comments of Winterflood being sold. Once all of this is out of the way, the BVPS, PE ratios and yield will point to a much higher share price.

Just my view, DYOR, maintain a diversified portfolio, including holding cash, and don't rely on chat boards to make decision! Share prices go up and down, so both long and short can be correct, its just a matter of timeframe.

Good luck to everyone with their investment management and portfolios and merry christmas!

Sorry, my bad, shortest day today (winter solstice), not shorters day! Anyway, shorters have had their day, and time for them to move on and stop attacking descent long standing British businesses. CBG has net interest margin over 7%, much higher than the bigger banks.

Shorters day today.

#moving average.

I'm expecting shorts to close now that this has become clear.

Good to see that the 225 support at the 20 day moving has held :-)

The 20 day moving average seems to be supporting at 225, and it seems that there might be resistance at around the 250 mark where the 50 day moving average line is heading. If it breaks the 50 day moving average, the next technical resistance will be in the 300s.

I'm happy to listen to anyone with an opposite view to see if I got my logic, thought pattern or analysis wrong. But please can this be based on some logical or quantitative analysis or new news item? and not conspiracy theories ..?

Market risk.

From the back of the envelope analysis I did of the short positions and when they were taken out, Marshall is the only one at current prices who is meaningfully in the money, mainly thanks to the positions they took earlier in the year. Hence they will be pocketing profit when reducing their shorts. The new shorters have not made too much money at current prices.

So, I am sticking with my view made in my earlier posts last week, that technically I think the general direction will be north.

Imo the market will eventually treat this like Bond markets discount whether or not a central bank will cut or hike rates. At the moment the market is suggesting a very very low probability that the Supreme Court will overrule the Court of Appeal. Just like Bond prices over time adjust the probability on rate decisions, so will this. My only question is what is Caius Capital LLP and Qube Research & Technologies Limited thinking of that I haven't thought of......?