Member Info for QBArtist

From the h1 release, gross margin is 12.5% on sales of �836m. Adjusted EBITDA is �23.3mn 12.5% of 836 = �104.5m of gross profit. If EBITDA is 23.3mn, then operating expenses are �81.2. So operating expenses equate to 77.7% of gross profit. What we now know: Full year EBITDA is expected, ceteris parabis, �55mn, a reduction of �15mn due to: �5m of unknown material error and �10mn of margin erosion. Speculating that the �10mn margin erosion means 1% drop in gross margin. This means, on FY sales of �1.6bn, gross margin at 11.5% = gross profit of �184mn Now if they are saying EBITDA is going to be �55mn, this means FY operating expenses of �129mn or 70% of FY sales. Cash flow management have brought it to the brink, but it still looks like a money making business to me. Note quite sure why or how anyone (bankers, analysts and the company itself in particular) would have thought that EBITDA would go from �23mn in H1 to �70mn for the full year. This implies EBITDA generation of �45mn in the second half. Does anyone know how much costs savings were expected in H2?

Demark I'm not quite sure what your point is. The shares are suspended and nobody can do nothing, and of course there is a risk of more black holes. But as a Mr "I am right and you are wrong" I note from your comments on other shares that you don't always get it right.

Demark I'm not quite sure what your point is. The shares are suspended and nobody can do nothing, and of course there is a risk of more black holes. But as a Mr "I am right and you are wrong" I note from your comments on other shares that you don't always get it right.

Just checked short tracker. Nobody was shorting this stock.

Imo there has to and will be a rights issue. That's has got to be an important reason for the suspension thereby avoiding the mistake clln made. As other posters have said without suspension this would be sub 50p. This is a story of over ambitious management greed driven growth by overgearing leaving no headroom for mishaps. Increasing equity is the long term solution with more stricter control on management

sorry, in my post, that should be a one for two right issue....my arithmetical error

Good strategic decision

A two for one RI at 50p would raise about �45m, allow for tax cash flow mismatch to even out, pay off some debt and provide headroom. EPS dilution would be to give adjusted/normalised EPS of around 15p. Theoretical ex-rights price would be 83p. The P/E on this scenario would be about 5-6x. Like a lot of others on this board, i jumped in yesterday, especially after gaining comfort from the second RNS. However, it didn't make sense that the price dropped around 70% on the first RNS. Smart institutions investors and traders knew that debt was a problem, and i suspect with the pricing yesterday the market was discounting, fearing and getting ready for more fund-raising.. I jumped in expecting that i might be caught in a RI, but I do think that the market they are operating in is recession and economic downturn proof (similar to how Dominos prospered so much during recession times as people went for takeaways rather than eat out). Didn't expect this surreal event today, but am happy to subscribe to a RI as am comfortable with the long term outlook. Just hope that they clean up the accounts first and management take some responsibility for this mess.

Retail sector is out of favour, Hugo boss disappointed plus John Lewis effect. Deb is now on 7X 2018 bottom of the range earnings forecast, debt is £275m, and about 1.25X ebitda. 2017 was very tough year for retailers due to Sterling weakness. But Sterling has recovered about 7-8% against dollar, and this should provide positive surprise on expenses side. Unless retail expenditure goes completely pear shaped, this should re-rate sharply, hopefully as I'm quite long on this....

Would speculate that a bid is in the making when he is ready, as he has stopped just of 30%. As a reminder on mandatory bids: A bid required to be made under the takeovers code where the bidder acquires shares amounting to 30% or more of the voting rights of a target; A mandatory offer must be made in cash or cash alternative at the highest price paid by the bidder during the 12 months prior to the announcement of the offer. From the 52 week range, the minimum price for a bid would be in the 50p range.

Sky reading at 20x and 3% yield, itv at 10X and 4.5% yield. Plus net debt at sky much higher relative to market cap. Looks like a no-brainer to me, I got in this morning.

correction: should read "RNS of 27.10.2017"

From the RNS of 27.10.18: "Operating costs before depreciation increased in line with expectations, increasing 3.3% compared to the same period last year driven by the translation impact of foreign exchange rates...." According to my research, 35% of sourcing costs are in US dollars or dollar-linked currency. Stronger sterling directly goes to P&L and cash flow. DYOR

I think that is helping Debs today.

Premier oil also strongly shorted all the way to the share price doubling in H2 2017. Shorters don't always get it right.

I'm in, on the following analysis: Expected 2018 pretax: �55m = => �45m after tax; EPS therefore : 3.6p. Current PE therefore = 8x 2018 earnings I would expect dividend to be cut to about 1.8p for the whole year. There revised and realistic dividend yield is 6%. Hoping that this will become just a slow and boring stock to hold with gradual recovery. Also, takeover target hopefully will support the share price and prevent any further falls.

About £600 loss but could gave been worse. Gold price outlook seems to have turned very bearish; RRS is very high correlated. Will get back in when gold has stabilised.

...have been increasing their shorts since 23.10.17, last top up on 17 November, when the share price was around 152p. Millennium already started closing their shorts last week. Bit too risky to be short right now...

...for 162p, hopefully today

Or the thing has just been incredibly oversold, and the relative valuation sticks out like a sore thumb.