Member Info for QBArtist

Article was written before the div cut. Basically says the company has got challenges, but is not in financial trouble even if competitors in better financial shape. New management needs to stabilise the falling revenues, make strategic decisions regarding further AI investments which need funding, and disposals, plus points out there is valuation discount compared to peers (Publicis et al). Possible disposals include sale of minority stake in Kantar (known since about March this year), stand alone division like PR and healthcare division could be of interest to PE or trade buyers.

On the subject of "interesting", this might also be interesting :

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/c9bbd8db-b059-4ad3-9169-61d0f50e6990

Yes, well investing in this may well be no more than a Bet.

Closed off the lows today, with the buying really only towards the last few minutes. Possibly some short closing or a turnaround companies investor.... or first bite by an interested party...?

I'm holding a few, basically a short term trade that's turned into a long term hold :)

Fundamentals don't look great, so probably heading south. But, as is often the case in these situations, whiplash on possible bid interest or restructure can be sharp and sudden. So I'm sticking with it.

"....I would predict early drop, then slow recovery...let's see....." (8.02am)

Although self gratulatory, I congratulate myself on my prediction this morning for the share price movement today.

"The cash flow is very ugly. "

To be fair, it's forecast 15-25% decline, and still over £1bn, enough for debt repayment and dividends and investments.

The only positive seems to be that MR has kitchen sinked everything, including the div, to allow a future recovery. I would predict early drop, then slow recovery...let's see.....

It's not so easy for me to sense where the SP will open on the back of this or where it will trend.

Anyone taking a chance and buying ahead of the announcement?

MW taking profits on their short positions. Over negativity and short closures is often give good indication of a bottom. MW made good profit on their short call, would be poor money management not to cash in a bit, esp with new CEO coming and the current historically low share price....

I was trading from the 505-10 levels, but luckily I sold the lot on the uptick yesterday. Close one... My post on capm valuation no longer valid, this seems to be in a secular decline, and from what I read too much debt to be a take over target. May look at it again if it goes sub 380, for trading only.

This is looking oversold to me, and as no one posts here, thought I would post my CAPM valuation to see how much upside there might be .

10 year gilt yield: 4.5%

Beta : 1.27

UK stock expected annual stock market return: 9%

CAPM required rate of return = 4.5% + 1.27 x (9%-4.5%) = 10.21%

Forecast RoE for 2026 is 18.5%

So for 2026 valuation, value of net assets should equal 18.85/10.21 (i.e 1.85x) stated book value to get to the CAPM valuation.

Net assets per balance sheet = £3,475m x 1.85 = appx £6,400m; current market cap 5.43bn i.e appx 18% upside, by end of 2026, assuming profits forecast are not downgraded further.

Also shorters have done well and made unrealised gains, which might be worth closing now, and so provide some upward impetus, albeit probably just short term. Unless people think that earnings will have to be downgraded even more, this is looking interesting to me at current prices.

CBG really taking a bath today, as with all the banks.

Chid

"Time not waffle will tell"

Chid, you watch the clock for whatever it has to tell you. I'm in the business of risk taking and putting money to work.

Still very very low, 429k today. At least the Bots gave us a positive close today.

US Core CPI was 3.2% vs 3.3% expected. Market taking this well. US Bonds, gilts and GBP all have rallied. The risks of Truss II are alleviated for the time being. With CBG, shorters now need to take a view on the company and SC outcome as the market wobble is over, at least for the time being.

Haven't heard from Chid on this Board recently. Probably because he's fallen off his chair with the near 5% rally in Lloyds?

US inflation out this afternoon at 1.30pm. What I heard on the business news channels is that the better than expected UK inflation print means that traders are pulling back their short bets on Gilts, and probably GBP. I also read that Goldman Sachs is not chasing the GBP down. If the CBG shorters are taking a market view with regard to holding/closing positions, this might be a short-term market reversal point for them too watch. But do watch out for the US inflation print this afternoon. Also company specifics still at play. I personally won't be putting any new money into CBG if starts climbing, as it appears right now, as I expect high volatility and trading band. to continue until some new company news.

CPI better than expected. There's some reversal in the bond markets and GBP. Let's if this feeds through to CBG, and if it can hold on to any of the gains at the end of the day.

150m share in issue. Daily volumes very low

No institutions will buy at present. Only upside is shorts closing, which they are not doing.

This thing is like holding a Premium Bond, except you can't even get a£50 win. :-(

Not sure what was the outcome of the gilt auction, as I can't find any news, but bond prices and GBP are holding steady. Inflation data in the morning likely to cause more volatility tomorrow. I'm expecting elevated market volatility for a few months due to increased inflation risks (oil, energy prices up, NIC rise in April, wages increases, Trump tariffs). On the positive, expectations of Trump ending various wars could be helpful to bring down some of the inflation expectations and so positive for equity asset prices and lower interest rates. Reeves speaking in HoC at 1.15pm.