RE: The wood and the trees...#24 Oct 2023 16:10
Thanks for the informative posts BB (unlike most here). Personally, rightly or wrongly, I am much less worried about #1. I think SOMO will have to honour the existing contracts as is. I see this issue as more of a problem for the budget discussions between Federal Iraq and the KRG which seem to have set an impossible situation. I absolutely agree that #2 is a great unknown issue. We will have to see how it plays out and you are absolutely correct to layout the considerable risk. #3 is a question of time but also, as you highlight, money. People here have greatly underestimated the complexity of the negotiations and the historical poor return to the pipeline owner.
In 2020, when the stock plummeted with the onset of covid all you had to believe is that the oil price would recover (and a close understanding of and watchful eye over vaccine development gave a lot of confidence in this regard). In my opinion it was an easy call then. The current crisis is much more serious. Everything is at stake. I'm holding, but will also continue to call BS to the complete rubbish that often permeates this BB. Let's see how things unfold.