Member Info for PUTUP

Oh really? For noting the fact we are only back to where we were three weeks ago? And still another circa 20% below where we were a month before that? Yawn. Wake me up when we are actually exporting oil. For now this is ordinary vol.

Perhaps 147king is a paid ramper? Nah, he'd be smarter.

So far a nice little bounce back to.... where we were three weeks ago.

Here's hoping it continues or at least holds until we get clear news.

Sep 11 was just the day it hit 0.5% and so registered on Shorttracker... We have no idea when they set that small short.

The hard part is figuring out whether there's (enough) blood yet... Looking forward to you soaking it up.

"Anfil they are not updating the market. That's very bad."

They updated everyone in detail less than two weeks ago! Clearly nothing material has come to light since. Chill.

Not quite (and especially not on a FD basis which is the basis on which you should calculate market cap). I think you forgot the currency translation...

Obviously the market is less confident about being paid the arrears. Let's await any news that might rebuild that confidence. Until then, whatever happened to Opu?

Revenue has been deferred not lost. The average price of Brent for April-August this year was $80. It's now over $92...

In his defense (I can't believe I'm saying that), I think he means anyone who held on or before early March of this year had the opportunity to sell then at more than double the current price - whether or not you regard/ed the stock to be a good performer over the long term. So all those people are down 50% or so versus that decision. I called the stock a sell post Genel's announcement re the move to KBT and ahead of GKP's own announcement on the 9th of March. I sold some at 207p at that time (6 March) but not nearly enough. I hesitated. (I only sold about 20k.) I very much regard myself as being down 55% since then and am kicking myself. I'd much rather have been all out then and be sitting here perhaps thinking about whether to go back in. But there's only so much looking in the rearview mirror that's healthy. Hopefully just enough to learn from mistakes. Not selling everything then was clearly a mistake. (I clearly didn't learn from earlier mistakes. I didn't sell everything the previous time my model called a Sell signal. Above 300p. I sold a mere 5k or so only then. Silly me.)

Onward...

Arma, I think you need to realise that euphoria and hype took the stock to those completely ludicrous levels. A hard collision with reality brought it crashing down. It wasn't a case of 'justified valuation followed by robbery' (so to speak). If anything, it was the other way around. The production of oil - and, with it, cost recovery - simply didn't come fast enough.

*The company was right to state the obvious risk however

"Guys like PUTUP are in danger of panicking; he doesn't get that the oil will flow."

Nah but I'm very cognisant of the risks here which are far greater than at any other time since I've focused on this name.

"One thing's for sure. The oil will flow."

Very likely yes. It isn't at all assured, however, that it will flow for GKP in its present form. We hope the challenges the company face will be resolved favourably but nothing is assured. If we are lucky export sales will restart before year end but I wouldn't at all be surprised if this situation drags on into 2024. How many here thought in March that it was going to be resolved in just a few weeks?

"Particularly since they're now financially invested by their 20% salary deferments... "

That's been the case since June! Why do you keep behaving as if this is something 'new'?

Personally I do not expect a placing in the next couple of weeks. So I'd personally place a next to zero probability on that. However, if local sales stutter and the pipeline remains closed it's a real possibility. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. The company was right not state the obvious risk however.

" Why is asking 'what is the positive' outcome a dumb question?"

Because the answer is obvious and you're just being a d!ck. And I've yet to se you produce any sort of contribution of value to this board. Perhaps you are a paid ramper that doesn't actually own. You seem to forget where my moniker came from: in 2020 "put up or shut up" when everyone was crying that the sky is falling and it was time to buy. I did and it has paid off handsomely.

I hope for a positive outcome. Faith has nothing to do with it. What a dumb ar$e question. How many shares do you own?

"Putup are you sure you are invested in GKP. All your commentary has a negative slant which suggests you are not a holder."

Yes. No it doesn't. I simply prefer to deal in grounded analysis rather than ramping. How many shares do you own?

"at this price the dividend yield is 68%. "

LOL! Kheldar has no clue.

Of their public fund holdings

"I think these are only the (American) institutions that are required to report to the SEC."

Any hedge fund with operations within the US (which is almost every large one Lansdowne included) is required to report a 13F in their public funds.

Anfil,

You did say net cash flow but let's set semantics aside.

I understand what you are saying. (You omit that MOL is being paid monthly but that isn't significant.) However, it is dependent on the company continuing to withhold funds from the KRG (and thereby realize the receivable owed by them by other means). At the moment, the amount withheld from the KRG is relatively small (less than $8m). I note also that this amount is substantially less than the gross field sales for July and August (closer to $19m).

While it's an obvious strategy for GKP management to deploy for as long as possible, personally I'm not going to rely on them continuing to withhold funds as those amounts grow until they announce agreement has been reached to do so. If the KRG isn't being paid by Bagdad and aren't receiving funds owed from local sales then I'd expect all hell to break loose. Also, I'd expect trade payables to have to normalize if the company is retaining substantial cash (even if that cash is owed to another party ie the KRG). Trade payables blew out more than $20 million in 1H. If that happens cash balances fall and not "in fact more".

As you note, there isn't much value created by doing the above except to the extent the receivable can be realised earlier rather than later it's a good thing (particularly when the current stock price appears to have discounted the receivable to zero).

Let's see what happens. Maybe the KRG agree the offset. Nonetheless GKP still needs a proper route to export sales to be worth the current valuation. Hopefully that happens soon. For now I have written off export sales for October and November but basically have a full return to normality in December. On that basis the stock is cheap (even writing off the receivables). Time will tell if those assumptions need to be adjusted yet again.

The only things being netted are (a) the amounts owed to GKP (and MOL) from the oil the KRG is lifting and (b) the amounts GKP/MOL owe to the KRG for the local sales they're handling. You'll understand that per a barrel of oil the KRG owes a lot less (again, per barrel) to the contractor than the contractor owes two KRG for a barrel sold locally.

Yes and not just the production capacity of the field (as limited , or not, as the case may be, by processing)

If it were easy they'd already be doing it. In any event, let's see. Nonetheless the delta in free cash flow between 25k and 35k at $30 a barrel ($3.3m) likely won't define the valuation of the company materially. You still don't get to Anfil's free cash flow expectations.