RE: Cash Balance20 Sep 2023 13:18
Personally, unless the KRG's funds locked up in Lebanon become available, I expect the $151 million now owed to be paid only in monthly installments over the one to two years following pipeline reopening and the billing/payment lag (so think first installment approximately 4 months after reopening). GKP's cash balance as of 8 August $80 million needs to be normalised for the blow out in payables. So I subtract $21 million off that figure. (For now I assume they keep the $8m owed to the KRG and offset it against the $151.)
A whole bunch of things took us down from (briefly) over £3 to where we are today. The first was return of capital to shareholders which isn't coming back. 30p per share right there. Next was a 25% fall in Brent from roughly $120/bbl. Then there was the impact of KBT pricing which shaved an average $9 off the pricing mechanism which is very significant. Only after this came the pipeline closure. Lastly, of course, was the deflation in investor sentiment from over-giddiness to anxiety (no real blood on the streets yet). The one thing that took us up during this period was touching - very briefly - 55k bopd production - a good deal of which was already in the share price, certainly when it was over £3. Let's see how things unfold. In the interim, we can be entertained by Arma's theatrics as well as those of the rampers - few, if any, of whom are actually buying. Those who are desperate will continue to flap the M&A card.
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