Member Info for PUTUP

"Shut up Jake"

Paul has developed yet another personality albeit a duplicate of the existing ones. Cue the Cranberries

In your head, in your head

Zombie, zombie, zombie-ie-ie

What's in your head, in your head?

Zombie, zombie, zombie-ie-ie-ie

Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh, eh-eh oh, ya-ya

"so far in the fourth quarter output is averaging double the level of the third quarter"

Pretty easy to double the 3rd quarter. GKP's average for the 3rd quarter was about 17k bopd. So double that would still be consistent with the update in September. Ho hum. I'm assuming 35k bopd for the 4th qtr until we hear otherwise from the company.

""This meeting was an initial step...we anticipate future meetings with all stakeholders," said Myles Caggins, an APIKUR spokesperson in a statement to Reuters. "

Good that discussions are about to start... I wouldn't expect quick agreement but will be happy to be surprised.

Read the section on the financial sector here as a start:

https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-investment-climate-statements/lebanon/#:~:text=While%20legally%20Lebanon%20is%20a,2019%20due%20to%20dollar%20illiquidity.

"WI is now 80% "

John continues to lie about what the Contractor's Working Interest is...

Market Abuse: Market manipulation through misleading statements or impressions is also a criminal offence under sections 89-91 of the Financial Services Act 2012, subject to penalties of up to ten years imprisonment and/or a fine.

BS alert: "net entitlement reserves"

What a pity GKP has no such asset.

GKP's assets are limited to:

1. Cash on hand

2. Receivables less payables

3. It's share of the CRP less that already invoiced in Receivables (80% ownership)

4. The earnings stream from its Working Interest (currently 61.5% of 27% = 16.6% and falling with the R Factor) in Profit Oil for the life of the PSC

It has no entitlement to reserves except as earned via 4 above. It has no entitlement to production assets except to the extent that it hasn't been reimbursed by the KRG/Iraq for recoverable expenditure (capex, opex and direct Shaikan G&A) i.e. its share of the CRP balance. 1, 2 and 3 are easily modelled and regularly disclosed by the company. Have a crack at 4 and you're done.

(If anyone wants to buy at 10x the current price, give me a call and I will offer you a great deal.)

"as long as gkp keep spending on drills and other production facilities as the field is developed, these monies will keep coming back to gkp"

GKP has been recovering an off-balance sheet asset. Recovery has far exceeded expenditure. That has led to the ability to return this capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. When the asset is fully recovered, recovery will equal expenditure and free cash flow is lower. (If expenditure exceeds recovery again, rather less likely, GKP begins lending again to the KRG/Iraq.) We make no margin on cost recovery but have to fund it with capital when the CRP builds. When, as has been the case for the last couple of years, the CRP has been recovered we recoup that capital and no longer need it. Redo the example provided in the article when cost oil is 20% rather than 40%.

Pity it gets these statements wrong "GKP is the operator of the Shaikan Field (80% WI)" and "The MOL Group owns 20% in Shaikan field". These are their respective ownerships of the Contractor. They're not their Working Interests in the field. It is a cause of great confusion when it shouldn't be. Of course, their computation example holds true only when there is enough CRP to allow the full 40% allocation to cost oil... Compare the $29 million with current costs to identify the rate of historical CRP recovery which hasn't got long to go.

Whack-a-John

Someone or some people bought. Someone or some people sold. To read anything into it other than that is sheer stupidity.

When was the last time you spoke with the company?

2022 Average Production 44.2k bopd (up just 1.8% over 2021)

Gross recoverable costs were running at more than $20 million per month. Opex guidance alone was $3-$3.40 per barrel. Corporate cash overhead was about $1m a month.

And this clown thinks they can do 50k bopd with $6m of cash costs 'n capex incl corporate overhead per month while leaving payables screaming. LOL! What's more, he thinks they achieve this while management state otherwise... Good luck with that thinking!

No progress or even much discussion on contracts. Management waiting like the rest of us.

Production still 'around 33k bopd' with volatile demand => revenues of circa $11.5 million per month with the difference between this and costs largely going to normalise payables => cash largely unchanged

No update since 25th of September because there's been no material changes. If management had something positive to share they would have made an update end October. They've an obligation to provide updates if material new information (including relating to production, contracts and cash balances).

The KRG don't have money to pay the arrears except from future production. "At the end of Q1, 2023, USD 294 million and Euro 310 million of KRG oil revenues remain held in bank accounts in Lebanon. Banks in Lebanon continue to restrict the movement of foreign currency outside the country." https://govkrd.b-cdn.net/Government%20Open%20Data/Deloitte%20Reports/Deloitte%20Reports%202023/Final%20RCOG%20Q1%202023%20Public%20Report.pdf

Believe the ramping (straw grasping) of the failed batsman if you want, but reality is more sobering. Hit the snooze button for now.

Errr.... that's just a block listing return. The new awards were announced way, way, way back in March!

(No update => no change. No need for conspiracy.)

I asked management. Yes but we lost out on the $ from the oil so net-net the same.

Unfortunately not. They tried but are not able to do this and haven't been since they began selling to local refineries via pipeline. The little they did hold back has been repaid (in oil).

$30 is the price oil has been sold at locally

No update => no material change from "around 33,000". So I've pencilled in 35k as optimistic. Circa $11.7m receipt per month allowing some normalisation of payables alongside covering costs. Treading water.

I'd say next to zero progress and, despite all the wailings of Jake and all his various avatars across here and other platforms, the stock - rightly - continues to languish until real news arrives. Writing down November and December production to local sales @30 of circa 35k in my model.

'Patience still required' into next year...

Unfortunately, we have no idea when they set that short - only when they crossed 0.5%. We also have no idea whether there was another side to the trade. Clearly, however, the buying back that short has supported the market for GKP stock in recent days. That support is now gone. Let's see what happens next.

"investor relations also gone quiet too"

"All parties have gone dark"

They've nothing positive to say. The good news is they have nothing negative they have to say either. So, you can safely conclude there's been no material change to volumes sold, or prices received, and no material progress with respect to contracts since the last update on the 25th of September. All very dull...

Capex, opex and direct Shaikan G&A add to the CRP. Cost Oil received reduces the CRP. When receipts exceed expenditure the balance falls.