Member Info for PUTUP

You're nuts if you think you are going to get a dividend before the company gets some of the arrears owed. They need to manage their liquidity very carefully until everything is resolved and there's a path to arrears payment.

"I'm following in the opinion of PUTUP."

To be clear, I'm rather well invested in GKP. I just don't have fanciful ideas as to how quickly things will be resolved and as to how much upside there is when they are.

"I'm putting more into Bitcoin!"

Christ! That's nuts! (Have a look at BluNord. A badly executed block trade smashed it through technicals but the fundamentals are still good. In fairness I'm in at around 155NOK but I think there's upside to well over NOK600 in the 1Q. Could be worth a crack and likely much more sound than Bitcoin.)

"$15 ps and I’m like outa here"

LOL. You're going to be here for a long, long time

" update on December sales at 40k plus"

That would have to be an enormous second half of the month given: "and c.21,900 bopd between 1-11 December". You should do the maths on $30 per barrel in perpetuity. Not pretty. The status quo isn't sustainable and the current stock price expects much, much more. Here's to making some actual progress at some point in 2024...

Brent futures market doesn't seem too bothered.

Me? I don't day trade. The only time I was a trader was many, many moons ago and I traded money-market-FX arbitrage and interest options (short term and long-term swaptions). It was, at times, exciting but generally boring.

How much GKP do you actually own?

Shame the Central Iraqi government didn't attend. The KRG isn't our problem with respect to contract discussions.

"0.50% short layed on today !! "

Put on yesterday...

"I never said Genel. "

Apologies. DNO. My mistake. Replace "Genel" with "DNO" and my statement still stands. It's clear that "they" in your reply to Arma referenced his mention of DNO. But I'm glad you've realised the need to correct your statement . Maybe you should have used all caps in your correction as well (and perhaps referenced the 40% that your statement needs to be multiplied by).

Money is why we're here. Perhaps you'd prefer to take the money you have in GKP and donate to the Salvation Army or similar?

Not when it rises with good reason. The repeated ramper pump and dumps just turn people away permanently.

Dunno. Trades are piddly. Looks like retail getting giddy (possibly on this misread 3 day resolution view). Mulder thinks Genel is making $1 bn a year "at 90k bopd even at 30 bucks" which about sums up the general level of knowledge of many retail investors.

Tempted to sell into this modest strength...

Brent is still within the same downward trading trend it's been in since October. Bounced off the bottom on the 13th. Resistance at $83 ish. So not much doing there.

Look at the "Burn shorters, MF, burn!" and "3 days" threads. All misreading a recent article that referenced the previous comment of a deal could be reached within 3 days.

"Well at 90k bopd even at 30 bucks they are making 1 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR!"

Don't confuser gross field sales with what the producer "makes"

Muppets thinking a deal can be reached within 3 days? That is, misreading an old statement?

"Last month, hopes about a deal were renewed when Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani visited Erbil to discuss the matter with the Kurdistan Regional Government. "First step is to agree with the region and companies on adjusting their existing contracts to be consistent with Iraq's constitution. We could reach a deal in three days," Abdel-Ghani said at the time."

You guys have trouble reading? Note the article says "last month" and "said at the time."

"3 days ? That definitely won't happen should read 3 months at least. "

Read again

"Abdel-Ghani said at the time."

Never said it was tw*t. Where in the below do I talk about the company's financial statements?

Blocked for achieving 'legendary idiot status'.

"Any move to a fixed amount per barrel is a mistake for Iraq. There's a material difference between capex, opex and a return for doing the work (aka until known as Profit Oil). The latter falls well within $8 per barrel. Opex has been $3-3.40 per barrel. Capex much higher still reflecting the development nature of the field. GKP makes no margin on the last two. They're merely the instrument of the KRG, consulting on and implementing an agreed plan (the FDP) on their behalf. The only risk they take with respect to field development is that in relation to being reimbursed for capex and opex and the extent to which it affects their Profit Oil stream.

Iraq would be foolish to move too far away from the present scheme. Under it they reap the lion's share of any value created (albeit they shoulder the lion's share of field development risk). GKP would be foolish to shoulder more of the risk of field development also.

The debate ought to centre around the (gross) 'profit' going to the IOCs for implementing the field development and operating the field - the Profit Oil component. As of our last regular receipt (September '22 production) this was $4.14 per barrel net to GKP or, more relevantly re the proposed $8, $6.73 per barrel to the Contractor (gross of the GKP CBC). Under the present PSC this is a variable number. It shifts higher as production shifts from Cost Oil to Profit Oil and shifts lower as more production is realised and the R Factor rises. But in general the margin is small (and from this margin the IOCs must cover their non-recoverable G&A expenses and GKP pays a CBC also).

If the IOCs are to really bear the risks around capex and opex (which a move to a fixed amount per barrel produced would do) then their required return would have to be much higher. Operating costs were circa $3-3.4 per barrel (one could figure out a more accurate figure within this range) and capex per barrel an amount on top of that. The IOCs would have to earn a margin on these costs, particularly capex given it is investment now for a future return. They'd also need much more freedom (since they bear risks) around the FDP."

Good luck Andy1022, but if you can't even understand how the proceeds of oil sales are divided between the KRG/Iraq and the IOCs you are merely cannon fodder for those that do. Hint: sales proceeds, after a 10% royalty, are split between what is labelled in the Production Sharing Contract as Cost Recovery and Profit Oil. The formula determines the payment the IOC receives. The payments GKP receives, gross of the Capacity Building Charge (which is deducted under Cost of Sales as Capacity Building Payments - see note 5 to the accounts), is booked as "Revenue" in GKP's financial accounts - the first line in the consolidated income statement (see also note 4 to the accounts). If you don't understand the Cost Recovery and Profit Oil formula in the PSC you haven't a hope of figuring out the very FIRST line item in the company's financial accounts.

Now run along and do some homework.

OMG you don't even understand the terms by which the company gets paid. Doof! This has nothing to do with accounting. It's about who gets what when a barrel of oil is sold. And that's the debate the KRG and central Iraqi government are having - how much per barrel should the IOC get. Currently that's defined in each Production Sharing Agreement. Go do some study on the economic fundamentals behind this company (and the other IOCs in Kurdistan). Accounting comes much later.

Andy1022 needs to do his homework and understand what the current PSC is. Muppet.

Here. I did your homework for you. Slide 26. Ignore it at your peril.

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/02/gkp-corporate-presentation-22-jan-2020-vfinal..pdf

First, no surprise on the 8th member (GKP's partner).

Any move to a fixed amount per barrel is a mistake for Iraq. There's a material difference between capex, opex and a return for doing the work (aka until known as Profit Oil). The latter falls well within $8 per barrel. Opex has been $3-3.40 per barrel. Capex much higher still reflecting the development nature of the field. GKP makes no margin on the last two. They're merely the instrument of the KRG, consulting on and implementing an agreed plan (the FDP) on their behalf. The only risk they take with respect to field development is that in relation to being reimbursed for capex and opex and the extent to which it affects their Profit Oil stream.

Iraq would be foolish to move too far away from the present scheme. Under it they reap the lion's share of any value created (albeit they shoulder the lion's share of field development risk). GKP would be foolish to shoulder more of the risk of field development also.

The debate ought to centre around the (gross) 'profit' going to the IOCs for implementing the field development and operating the field - the Profit Oil component. As of our last regular receipt (September '22 production) this was $4.14 per barrel net to GKP or, more relevantly re the proposed $8, $6.73 per barrel to the Contractor (gross of the GKP CBC). Under the present PSC this is a variable number. It shifts higher as production shifts from Cost Oil to Profit Oil and shifts lower as more production is realised and the R Factor rises. But in general the margin is small (and from this margin the IOCs must cover their non-recoverable G&A expenses and GKP pays a CBC also).

If the IOCs are to really bear the risks around capex and opex (which a move to a fixed amount per barrel produced would do) then their required return would have to be much higher. Operating costs were circa $3-3.4 per barrel (one could figure out a more accurate figure within this range) and capex per barrel an amount on top of that. The IOCs would have to earn a margin on these costs, particularly capex given it is investment now for a future return. They'd also need much more freedom (since they bear risks) around the FDP.

Average production

2021 43,440

2022 44,202

2023 circa 22,350

"It's worth BILLIONS"