Member Info for PUTUP

Won't want to invest

The whole point of the Field Development Plan was to give the KRG oversight and APPROVAL of investment (and costs). It was necessary because it is/was the KRG that pays for investment in the field. (There is a cost to the Contractor via the loss of potential PO while production is shifted to CO for cost recovery but the shift is to reimburse the Contractor.) If Iraq doesn't agree to reimburse adequately (the proposed cost reimbursement covers OPEX but not CAPEX) the IOCs won't invest in capex and there will be a standoff when discussing field development. Expectations of a rapid increase in production will fall short. Only a foolish investor would pay now for production beyond, say, 55k bopd even with the pipeline reopened.

"The Budget Law seems to require a fixed figure per barrel in Dinars based on production in Iraq but the IOCs in Kurdistan have individual costs per barrel in $.

What could possibly go wrong?"

There seems to be little fundamental recognition of the need to repay the IOCs for historical and current capex. And, of course, this is exacerbated by the low production level of the field. (A given annual capex level falls to a more palatable figure per barrel as production rises.) It is also exacerbated by the remaining (albeit small) CRP as this also needs to be recovered. Once it normalizes 'things get easier.'

Personally I don't see this situation getting resolved anytime soon. I'm modeling the current status quo to continue for the full 1Q 24. Hopefully I get something positive to change that. However, it's clear that APIKUR have no real influence except to keep repeating their list of demands and showing a cohesive front. Whether they achieve their goals is anyone's guess. The issue at hand is very fundamental and it seems one the central Iraqi government don't understand or, worse, are simply unwilling to recognise.

"because it way paying 40 percent dividend"

LOL you crack me up...

I sold above £3. Wish I had sold the lot. I called the sell again after the Genel announcement re the move to KBT pricing and sold more again. Actuals.

"Let's see if you can hold firm on quietening down the drama."

Didn't have to wait long...

LOL. Muppet.

"Oil demand slowing ‘drastically’, says IEA

Energy watchdog says countries outside Opec+ able to fulfil projected increases in demand next year"

Worth a read (alongside the Morgan Stanley report I posted some time ago). OPEC market share falls to 51%.

The "sell" was above £3 in June 22 and again above £2 in March of 23. The "buy" is lower than here.

Let's see if you can hold firm on quietening down the drama.

"if there is a market for it" and not with such oppressed costs

Eventually they can do a lot more - with investment and with an open export pipeline...

In fact, the RNS was worse than I was expecting. I had modeled 35k per month for the 4th quarter.

I've been very consistent in arguing that the company had considerable payables that needed normalising (and that the reason why there hasn't been an RNS for a while is because there hasn't been a material change to report).

No. Just commonsense.

Well, well, well. No surprises there for me. Whatever happened to the rampers predicted 55k per month production and steady cash build to over $100m? The parade of muppets have been shown to be just that.

Don't expect volumes and cash balances to have gone up enormously. Hopefully we will get an update this week which will provide more visibility. The company had at least $21 million of payables normalisation to unwind in 2H. That would leave cash broadly flat at its August level if they achieved 35k per month at circa $30/bll for Q4. Also remember that some costs are being deferred and not foregone and that, at some point, capex will need to rise just to maintain local sales. The stock is still pricing a MUCH better scenario than 35k of local sales indefinitely and no recovery of arrears.

Might not have to wait too long.

That's been obvious for a long while despite ramper claims to the contrary. They need to be paid for SOMO-sold production before they can pay the IOCs their arrears.

"Some of that 700 billion can be used to pay the IOCs monies owed, surely..."

"to cover three months of payroll after public sector employees in the Region went unpaid for nearly 90 days.

Civil servants in the Kurdistan Region have yet to be paid their salaries for the months of September, October, or November. The latest 700 billion dinar installment of the loan will cover the salaries for September."

Just one month of overdue salaries. October and November and December.... still owed. The IOCs are waaaay down the list of priorities.

Tw*t on the turps is all you need to know Invstrat

What a load of b*llocks

"OK we can still sell locally at $30 indefinitely before the courts decide???"

Only if SOMO allows it. Suing would likely end that rather quickly. And even if allowed GKP will need to invest to keep the oil flowing.

Which is scheduled for 1 June 2024.