Member Info for PUTUP

When thinking about this accelerating trend of EV replacement one must also consider that, for example, the average age of US light trucks and cars is a whopping (at least to me) 12 years. The average US vehicle has circa 140,000 miles on the clock. Expect to see increased pressure, and possibly incentives, for older vehicles to be replaced with much more fuel efficient 'modern' replacements - whether EV or otherwise.

Pure EV 'penetration' (% of fleet, not % of new sales) in the US is currently tiny at less than half a percent. Yet Morgan Stanley, for example, expect this figure to hit 25% in the US by the end of this decade and 31% globally. 'Consumer' adoption isn't really expected to be the big driver of this change but rather the adoption by company vehicle fleets.

(The MS podcast 'Thoughts on the Market episodes 349 and 350 are well worth a listen for a quick synopsis of their views and the issues involved. They're free to hear.)

"Here you will find a very useful breakdown of global oil consumption by the EIA:"

I mistyped. That's a breakdown of US consumption with the US being the world's largest consumer at about a 21% market share. Perhaps it is lucky for us that the US is currently lagging in EV adoption - for now.

"The reality is despite the high percentage increasing growth in EV purchases they still represent less than 3% global sales and that’s in developed nations."

Take a look here and update your stats:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/electric-vehicles-europe-percentage-sales/

That's 2020. "Electric vehicles accounted for 4.2% of light vehicle sales in 2020, almost double 2019's 2.5%." [Global, not just developed markets.] It's been estimated that EV sales hit 5.8% market share at the end of Q1 (with full battery EV market share rising to 3.8%). The trend is accelerating - and at a rapid pace. There's no doubt that EV is at an inflection point. Ford expects 40% of its sales globally to be electric vehicles by the end of this decade. Volkswagen predicts 70% of its European sales will be from electrified cars by 2030. Read below for an update from Mercedes.

https://www.daimler.com/investors/reports-news/financial-news/20210108-mbc-annual-sales-2020.html

And here for Toyota:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric/toyota-to-unveil-two-new-evs-for-u-s-market-that-will-go-on-sale-in-2022-idUSKBN2AA2GT

"Toyota forecasts by 2025 that [global] industry sales will be 7% electric vehicles rising to around 15% to 18% in 2030."

In conjunction, do a little research into the deployment of EV charging infrastructure and just how fast vehicles can now be charged vs just a couple of years ago. And the major oil companies are on board. Expect, for example, to see EV charging points popping up at every petrol station around the country.

Here you will find a very useful breakdown of global oil consumption by the EIA:

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php

Given circa 44% of current oil consumption is via "finished motor gasoline" the above trends cannot be ignored. Make hay while the sun still shines.

Jeez opu what drugs are you taking? They retained full upside. Hedging the downside risk on a sizable proportion makes good business sense.

Grab your pacifier and chill out.

For now, $24m + $4+change (assuming 31 days and bopd 43,400). 79% of first figure is cost recovery.

This is the first time anything has vested under the VCP. Unsurprisingly the vested nil-cost options were exercised soon thereafter.

Well, a lot of other people including the independent external remuneration consultants hired by the company to oversee the VCP disagree with you. Maybe you should go through the relevant documents again. They aren't that complicated.

Yes the vesting rolls forward to the next test date. It even says that in the material you quote below. The conditions were met. The VCP was never 'binned'. Quite likely the two recipients of the VCP will get more options - and exercise them - next year.

Duh. The CAGR is tested at each vesting date. Compound Annual Growth Rate.

Is this really not understood?

Your last question is answered in the company's annual reports.

"But what clowns agreed to the 8% CAGR in the first place? Ridiculously low hurdle for a stock that spends a better part way above 50% annualized realized volatility."

Don't disagree with that. But the 'clowns' owned the vast majority of the company and restructured it away from complete failure. Certainly I wouldn't be happy with an 8% annualized return on my equity investment since 2016. Thankfully I don't have to be...

8% CAGR was achieved. That was the threshold in the contract negotiated by the majority shareholders of the company. What failed?

"In the past month, Mr Jón Ferrier, Gulf Keystone's former CEO, exercised all vested nil-cost options under the 2016 Value Creation Plan, resulting in the issuance of 999,453 nil-cost options after satisfaction of the tax liability arising upon exercise."

Hey Bravedog, are you still confused regarding vesting of options under the VCP?

(Note the error in the press release. The second 'nil-cost options' should have read 'shares'.)

" the Dividend is the best way to return value to shareholders, as has been stated it leaves theOption???, to the individual to take it off the table or re-invest here or elsewhere as they seem fit"

IYHO.

Both offer options to individual investors. That's fact. You can always take money off the table and reinvest elsewhere. It's a publicly traded company with certainly enough liquidity to match your stake. If you don't want to take money off the table but still recognize the company is overcapitalized then a buyback should be your tool of preference. If you don't think the company is overcapitalized then you'd reject both special dividends and buybacks.

Quite logical for any sensible investor.

" i.e. the majority of shareholders don't believe the buyback is in THEIR interest."

Likely because they'd prefer the easier route to taking money off the table. All a buyback does is pay some cash out of the company just like a dividend, but to collect some of it you have to act rather than sit on your ar$e. Or maybe they just don't understand such things....

"They are not the same. If I sell part of my holding I will incur charges, reduce the income from all future dividends and reduce my voting rights."

Within dividend you may well incur tax at income rates rather than a capital gain (or loss...).

Your second point is an oxymoron.

Re your third, while true that you have less votes your percentage voting power remains unchanged.

In both cases - pocketing a dividend and selling into a buyback - you're reducing your VAR. In contrast, I remain bullish and want to keep all my VAR invested.

opu wants to take some money off the table. Not so bullish after all.

$23.7 million if the May oil price average holds until the end of the month and volume stays at 43,400 (excluding arrears payment). 79% of that is cost recovery. Volume might well be a little higher. $23.7 is about 7% more than I expect for March (excl arrears). Bring on further buybacks.

"Working back from both figures in the RNS gives average of 43.7kbopd for March"

Someone here linked to a presentation which had 43.4k as the production number for March which is the figure I used. With IEA price figures that left my estimate $0.2 million low. Rounding error at the end of the day.

The planet will be fine. A planet in which humanity can live is a different story. As always, rallying cries need to be emotive more so than precisely accurate. The issue (for modern humanity) is real and needs to be taken seriously. The recent FT article entitled "Clothes dryer vs the car: carbon footprint misconceptions" discusses just one part of the challenge. Interesting stuff. Still trying to decide which of my children I should contribute. Now let the comments fly!

So $0.2 million higher than my expectation for March but close enough. $3.3 matches my calc also.

Expecting $20.8 (and $3.1 arrears) for April.

The company has more than enough excess equity capital to execute the already approved additional buyback. Bring it on.