Member Info for PUTUP

“ Putup why so gloomy”

Gloomy? I’m not. Once again, I like the stock. I will be reinvesting my dividends at these levels. But I’m also realistic and basing my expectations on solid analysis rather than hype. We should do a poll to see how many hypers are actually pocketing their divis and reducing their VAR. Then we will understand just how bullish they are.

As for 190p it’s already been there and the resistance line proved a nice level for short term profit taking for those who like to trade.

keep searching for enlightenment Grasshopper FlyingHorse1

(PS I have greater confidence in the KRG than Kaaran, simply because the KRG needs the oil cos more than anything else, but you do need to get some basic finance principles under your belt.)

"So money building in the account is not a value creating event but spending said money destroys the value of the company"

It is the expectation of earning/receiving more money than previously expected, or the lowering of the risks attached to such, that builds value. Actual receipts meeting existing expectations is much more modest in terms of 'value creation' - the expected is merely happening. You use the term 'spending'. We were talking about dividends. Paying a dividend isn't the company 'spending' money. It is paying that money out - giving it away to shareholders. It's not putting the money to work. And of course when the company gives away cash for nothing in return the value of the company, all else being equal, should fall. Basic stuff highlander. You really need to come to grips with such things.

"so by your fackin obvious statements, the company value should be rising every time there is a payment..."

Why ever would you draw that conclusion? The receipt of something already expected isn't a particularly value creating event. Now if expectations change that's a different story.

If you are that bearish then you ought likely to sell

" What do you mean?"

It's pretty fackin' obvious. You own £x amount of stock today. That's your value at risk (VAR). (You own the forthcoming dividend today in that value amount.) All else being equal, when the stock goes ex div the share price will fall to reflect the money leaving the company (the company is worth less because it has paid away cash). The value of your shares will fall but you will have money in your brokerage account. Your VAR will fall; your exposure to the company's stock price will fall. You can create a 'dividend' anytime you want by selling some. If you think the company is cheap, you wouldn't ordinarily like to reduce your VAR. You'd want to reinvest your dividend (and in fact you ought to prefer a return of capital via a buyback in which you didn't participate). In fact, a dividend is a pain because (a) you might incur taxes which is a leakage from your VAR and (b) you are subject to the risk that you might not reinvest at the theoretical ex div price. Investing 101.

Pocketing your dividend is the same as selling some today. Just saying.

Everyone reading FH's posts should therefore understand that he is a seller at these levels

"Today’s sp will loom like a bargain in 6 months." (sic)

And yet

"I will sit back and wait."

That seems to sum things up for most here. Everybody waiting for someone else to do the lifting...

"Number of GKP shares outstanding = 213,745,502"

Assuming that sufficient options are exercised for the shares underlying the block listing to be fully issued. Likely a sensible assumption even if the number of shares outstanding at the moment is lower.

"All the IOCs will now take a careful look at capital spending in Kurdistan. With a surging oil price KRG will be keen on major increases. But they have just managed to kick themselves in balls. GKP should probably keep plans intact for 55k move but anything up to 110k will now be difficult to agree."

Well....duh. Nothing new here.

"The Special Dividend I see as an attempt to head off criticism by leading investors before the AGM - criticism that has been growing for the last 2 years.
The 2 x Divis is actually quite a finely-judged gamble by the CEO and he might, just might, have staved off a full scale revolt by major shareholders."

Nope. The company is carrying over $200m in excess equity capital. The $50 million is a drop in the bucket, less than two months receipts. More pressure to come.

Funny how those most vocal (and often with the least analysis) about undervaluation are so eager to pocket their dividend and reduce their value at work.

Expect the buyback to follow. Too many weak holders in this stock willing to sell at these levels and pocket their dividends.

Narrow mindedness is bliss

Your math would be fine if the profit to the company at $70 oil were $35. You need to understand the PSC and not some irrelevant computation.

Wooohahha!! It's all a conspiracy...

Arma's never been one to understand the PSC. The mathematics are too complex for him.

"
If the threshold was crossed as you say, why haven’t the cy issued an RNS informing the market that the threshold has been crossed?"

They don't have to. The terms of the VCP are all on their website. They will update the disclosure in the annual report. They HAVE issued an RNS for a block listing of new shares relating to the expected issuance of shares pursuant to the future exercise of options granted - and now vested - under the VCP. If the options hadn't vested there'd be no need for the block listing. In order to vest the threshold had to be crossed. Just because you got lazy in your calculation of the threshold doesn't mean that the reality of the situation is that the 8% CAGR wasn't achieved.

"PUTUP how much are you paid to post here?"

Nothing. Why, am I missing out on a revenue stream?

"wrong ;) "

Hmm. Invstrat admits to being spammer Paul?

"you see some of we longtermers on here have seen ‘contributers’ come and go,"

And ya still haven't learnt much over the years have you? Oh well, every game needs at least one fish.

" Got me thinking how many are actually him on here?"

My bet is pessimistic Invstrat isn't one of them

"@PUTUP
The threshold level was not crossed. That’s why 75% of the 7+mio nil cost options are not awarded. So the Bod decided that around 1,875 mio shares could be issued for the VCP."

It was. You haven't adjusted for dividends and buybacks which reduce the market cap of the company and yet provide returns to shareholders. You need to deduct all of these from a simple 8% CAGR applied to $350 million.

"give notice" means inform. The clause is there to ensure that all plan participants are aware of an action in which they may wish to participate as shareholders. (They're not shareholders unless they exercise their vested options.) You don't inform people and make them insiders unless necessary and former employees aren't 'need to know'. So any informing would only take place post announcement to the public at large.

Like many things in life, the sensible, logical explanation is often right while the wild, conspiracy theory is not.

Invstrat, how do you make it through the day? Some of the key shareholders were part of the negotiating group that agreed the terms of the VCP. The performance terms under that agreement were achieved. Good stuff. They get their rewards. If you don't like it blame the key shareholders that negotiated the hurdle ROR.

"using the Company’s financial resources to underwrite any future buyback campaign - dunnit ?"

Huh? Buybacks just return capital to shareholders. Once it is returned the company no longer manages it.

I'm actually surprised the dilution isn't much higher. I understood that 75% of the 7 million options were eligible for vesting in this test period - the 25% from 2021 and the 50% that didn't vest in 2020. I understand the rights under the VCP get carried forward if the test is failed in a period and only expire in 2022. To be clear I'm talking about vesting rights. I need to go back through the terms of the VCP (and the adjustments made in 2017) to understand why the amounts were lower than expected. I'm sure there will be helpful updated disclosure when the company releases its annual report also.

An astute investor would be monitoring the potential dilution from options under the VCP, LTIP and other plans and adjusting (continually) the fully diluted shares outstanding for such zero exercise price dilution when computing a share price for the company from any given valuation expectation.