Member Info for PUTUP

"Now for the Chairman. How long has he been getting free shares?"

None so far.

WTF? FFS some of the things I read here crack me up.

That's a good thing. When it's not correlated with oil management wouldn't be doing their job well.

"Nice to see a few having some skin in the game which makes for a change"

The purchase is a finger nail clipping.

The 'skin in the game' for all remains options awards. JF had plenty.

"Any buyback will only be to the benefit of the BoD......"

Describe how

"I'd prefer the company not to start a buyback again and instead diversify the operations with investments in another country."

Buy another stock. This is best as a pure play.

TM I believe we are both using a very similar calculation for the monthly payments and that this relies on an 80% working interest in the field. It projects the numbers rather well. I'd be surprised if a different WI was being used for the receivable recovery and believe it more likely other factors are at play. In any event, the difference in time value of money for the recovery based on a simple calculation vs what has appeared to be the case this time is completely immaterial. Let's see how it swings for March which should lead to yet another $30m of excess equity capital that should be returned to those shareholders wishing to reduce their VAR at these levels.

"Problem seems to be IMO that the holders of GKP are both relieved and happy with the payment but everyone else is focussed on the next payment arriving even later or getting missed altogether."

The bigger issue is limited NEW interest in the stock. When, for example, Blackrock re-accumulated we saw good strength on the bid. Now with limited new interest the price languishes. That's just fine if you're here for the distributions and not just a quick turn. I hope all who believe the stock is undervalued intend to reinvest their dividends in the stock...

"The debt bit was circs $200k below expectations"

Same. Will look at your tweak (although a couple of hundred k is insignificant in the grand scheme of things).

Show us the workings of your calc and maybe we can highlight the error. Volume? (41,600 is what I used consistent with the company's presentation.)

Rather spurious accuracy calculating an estimate to nearest $1k let alone cents. ;)

Numbers as expected (within a couple of hundred k). Expecting $21.9m for March with arrears repayment of $8.4m.

GKP has to return more capital to shareholders. Via the approved buyback makes most sense. Followed by another special dividend second half of this year. No point initiating the buyback before the end of this month however.

From a technical analysis point of view we are at an interesting crossroad. Having failed to convincingly break through long term resistance (dating back to 2018) around 190-192p we've now broken the support that's assisted the stock since 70p in June of last year. One can see a classic head and shoulders top formed here with the stock sitting precariously on the neck line at circa 167p.

For every buyer there's a seller and vice versa. Only time will tell which is more motivated in the coming days and weeks.

"BTW I have been in GKP for 12 years to your 10 minutes."

That's not a credential I'd brag about

"When is this BoD going to be transparent about what they are aiming to do with GKP? If the plan is to sell then why should that be a secret?"

Maybe, just maybe, it isn't and so there's nothing to say.

"Likewise if the plan is slowly grow why can’t that be communicated? "

Err, they've told you how they currently plan to grow and just the other day updated plans regarding the next immediate steps to get to 55k in Q1 2022.

You guys are hysterical. I couldn't make up half the drivel you guys come up with. Seriously.

"3:production will increase by approx 50% in the next year"

Buy a calculator.

Having just released year end results and all the detail that came with them just what do you expect them to be saying now??!!

"I had lengthy discussions with Straycat about the VCP"

Hmm. Probably should do better than that.

Bottom line: when you read or are told something that doesn't make sense do a bit of your own research to figure out which is most likely to be correct rather than jumping to conspiracy theory. Conspiracy theories requiring a bunch of people and/or organizations to have all committed the same blunder or fraudulence are most often complete BS.

Not much, if any, of this stock's shares are restricted from circulation although a very high proportion (at least 30% of o/s) are very well bedded down and unlikely to do so.

(Not the first time Bloomberg has had something incorrect.)

@Bravedog, did you check your VCP 2021 vesting threshold with the company?

For many it's been a year long holiday with lots of travel. Be careful not to view things through a 'I stayed in screwed up UK' lens. The last bear market ended with the pandemic in February/March. This will be a much faster cycle. We're very well into this current bull market. Personally I'm confident on oil to average the mid to upper 60s (Brent) this year and next but also expect it to test trend support in the mid 50s. Lots of long term resistance to get through before Brent gets into the 80s and you can bet if it does plenty of supply will follow. Oil producing nations need the cash.

BP is wise: "BP said that after reaching its net debt target it would return “at least 60 per cent of surplus cash flow to shareholders” through share buybacks." GKP has a lot to return to shareholders in order to maintain any semblance of an efficient capital structure. Bring it on.

Just to round out a couple of things relating to share options awards. Clearly we needn't worry about the "Equity-settled share option plan" given the strike prices are ridiculous levels (albeit some people invested there). Then there's the SRP which has 973k options outstanding and exercisable. Funny how 1m buyback shares were retained and transferred to the EBT. And lastly there's the LTIP. 7,254k outstanding but none exercisable as of December 31, 2000 (4,752k granted during 2020) and now the 2021 grant of 2,752k, 42% less than the prior year. (Someone listened.) Obviously some are coming to vesting as the company has felt fit to issue 500k new shares (in addition to the 27k residual from the t-stock transfer). Shame they didn't activate the approved buyback to purchase such shares in the open market, returning capital to shareholders, rather than diluting us with further issuance by an already over equity-capitalised company.

I'm sorry but Bravedog's position is simply incorrect. While the accounts are "as of" December 31 their publication and announcement on March 31 means they must continue all material information as of that later date. Companies manage this with a "subsequent events" section or other discussion in the relevant notes if such is required by events. The commentary about the vesting of VCP options is up to date. It even explains that the next possible vesting date is beyond the publication date of the report (March 31) and that some of the options aren't eligible for vesting until next year. So the notion that they have vested, that they have been exercised by the two holders and that stock has been secretly squirreled across to them is complete and utter nonsense.

You will also note that the Annual Report has more detail than the shorter FY results results. The Annual Report isn't yet available for 2020 but the report for 2019 pg 99 has the directors' shareholdings and share interests disclosure. Note that the beneficial ownership figures are zero - they didn't have any shares then. Note further that 'Vested but Unexercised Interests' are very small (just 15k for SZ with a strike price so out of the money we need never worry about them being exercised). Note further still that the 'UNVESTED scheme interests subject to performance conditions' total the full amount of the grants under the VCP. To reiterate, none of the VCP had vested and - of course - been exercised as of December 31 2019. From the 2020 results announcement we have "The requisite TSR was not achieved following the Measurement date for the financial year ended 31 December 2019 and no share options vested." So that means NONE have vested today as the next possible vesting test is end of this month. "The measurement date for the financial year ended 31 December 2020 has not yet passed as at the date of this report."

So none have vested and some aren't even eligible for vesting until this time next year. As they haven't vested they can't have been exercised and - no surprise - no stock has needed to be issued/delivered. End of story.

As for your thresholds for TSR, it is odd that you have no adjustments for dividends, special dividends or buybacks which lower the market cap of the company. Couple this with the obvious errors or conspiracy theory debunked with the above I question the veracity of the thresholds you have provided. Once again, have you checked them with the company? We should know the threshold for TSR for the forthcoming test.