Member Info for PUTUP

Still good upside to come. Company has an enterprise value of just over $0.5bn and $110 million of receivables as of the end of May. At current oil prices this year's capex to get to 55k bopd is a mere 2 1/2 months' receipts. After that it may be a different story but the ride up to 55k should be sweet. Chug, chug, chug.

I make no apology. Opu has consistently shown his views are based on hyperbole and without analysis.

"you’re 4’8” in your high heels and I’m 6.2 in my stockings .. now that’s about 25% yeh ? I’d dwarf you agreed"

The problem with this 'analogy' - obviously - is you'd have to believe the delta of 1'4" dwarfed the 4'8" in order to apply it to Opu's argument. It clearly doesn't.

" PUTUP and mates were saying sp would be be down at 150p after 10% divi money confirmed. Yawn."

Show me where this was stated. Hint: it wasn't.

"If we get 16p per share for example, does the sp drop 16p on ex div date in theory?"

All else being equal, yes, it ought to. 16p per share has left the value of the company. However, rarely does all else remain equal. The value that's left in the company can change - up or down. But make no mistake, the 16p that left can't affect the value of the company anymore and unless you believe other factors have affected the value of what's left you would mark down the value of the stock by that amount. And in order to get your 'dividend yield' (a simplistic calculation of divi per share divided by the cum divi share price) you need the residual value of the company to rally back to the cum divi price. Else you don't have a yield at all. You've just shifted some value from one pocket to the other. 'Dividend yields' are an illusion - particularly those created by major, 'special' dividends which significantly affect the capitalization of the company. The company can equally alter its capital structure and return capital via a buyback. Do you calculate a 'dividend yield' when the company does a buyback and cancels the shares?

"The 'R' factor in this country is now irreverent. "

LOL! Do you even know what the R factor is? Hint: it has nothing to do with Covid and a lot to do with GKP.

errr.... going from 44k to 55k is about a 25% increase in receipt. That doesn't "DWARF all previous income". Not even close. That assumes the R factor stays where it is and yet we know it will rise quickly. Opu, you've never been one to actually do some analysis.

Back to early March levels. Ho hum.

Indeed! Sorry. I should have checked again given it was your post and you're capable.

Either way I'm glad I decided to reinvest my forthcoming dividends in advance of their receipt.

ooh my bad!

"double ex-div effect of circa 16p"

2 x 11.70p = 23.4p

The VCP and its terms were put in place in 2016

Nothing new/unexpected but good to see the uplift in the stock price. Now clear of long term resistance dating back to 2016. Happy to be sitting up 130%. But the company is hoarding at least a further $100 million of cash which ought to be paid back to shareholders and adding to this with every receipt. Onward.

"Not backing your mate Jaap on this issue?"

Never said he was my mate. I'd like to see a change there. But don't confuse that with a proper understanding of buybacks, capital structure, the PSC , the VCP etc etc

(the list seems to get longer and longer)

"Jaap Huijskes is unfit for purpose"

A separate question. I'm glad they bought back stock rather than issuing new shares for those that were kept for that purpose. Thankfully they cancelled all treasury stock not immediately needed for such purpose. (There was no cash loss.) I'm very much against recent new issuance of shares to satisfy employee options and would have much rather they bought more shares in the open market for such purpose. Perhaps all the wailing here made them shy of doing the right thing there. The company remains heavily over equity capitalized. They should buy back a LOT more stock and refrain from issuing new shares to meet future stock options until such time as they've rebalanced their capital structure. And if people want to take some money off the table and sell into such buybacks it's up to them. At these levels I won't. Maybe, given your strong view of management, you will.

"But this time let's not give the Executive the scope to line their pockets by declaring the shares as Treasury shares. "

While initially any repurchased shares go to 'treasury' as a matter of proper accounting, indeed they should be cancelled quickly. They've (stupidly) issued new shares to satisfy the VCP and LTIP and only those needed for expected future exercise of options should be retained and then only via immediate transfer to the EBT.

*Mr

"In 2019 GKP purchased $50m shares at average £2.06.
Does that seem a good investment? "

It wasn't an investment. The shares were cancelled and money was simply returned to shareholders. The sooner you get this through your thick head the easier you will rest.

My Soden stepping down from the committee is required. He's not an independent director. He represents the interests of the largest shareholder. Don't blame Jaap. FFS.

Fully expected.

The irony is a completely over capitalized company is issuing new stock to meet the obligations rather than buying back stock to do so.

Indeed. Hence follow closely developments in so-called "solid-state batteries". Developments there (and in other potential alternatives) are important not only in relation to carbon footprint but also for there broadening competition in the EV sector (given Tesla's strengths in lithium-ion). Interesting times.

Consistently? Hmm. I guess if you prefer to be blind towards balanced opinion then that's up to you. I'm pretty confident I have a lot more at work in GKP than you but who knows.

We are approaching one of those 'put up or shut up' moments. We shall see who takes-the-money-and-runs versus those who maintain their VAR for future growth.

" I guess this largely depends on personal circumstances."

And just how bullish, or not, you really are.

I agree with TH, it is odd that many of those most vocal about undervaluation (often while also demonstrating clear incompetence with respect to understanding the company's financial profile) are the most keen to pocket the dividend and are the most vocal in resisting buybacks. The irony is hilarious.

Ah Longstrong don't confuse realism with a lack of enthusiasm for this stock. I do think it's cheap. I expect about 50% medium term upside or so if we factor in the effects of returns of capital to shareholders. That's good upside and means I will reinvest any value returned to me via dividend and avoid selling into any buyback - at these levels. I do not expect multiple bagger gains from here in the medium term. You seem to suggest that when investing one should only consider the positive and not the negative factors which may reduce returns or caution expectations.

And, yes, pocketing a dividend - reducing your value at risk - is exactly the same as selling a few. In both instances you are reducing your VAR and taking money 'off the table' (whether in the form of locking in profits or losses).

(The stock is not a bond. If it were worth 100 today and it paid out 10 as a dividend it no longer it doesn't retain a redemption value of 100. It's then worth 90. 10/100 is only a 10% yield if the 90 grows back to 100. If I think the stock is going to grow that 11.1% or more I'd like to earn that on a 100 rather than 90 and compound the return from there until I thought it appropriate to reduce my VAR.)