The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Just read the update. IMHO Nothing in there to worry about. Just had a laugh looking at the BOPD figures published and myself being pickup on as being overnegative with my predictions of 600 to 630 BOPD. Seems I was over optimistic as well. As long as we remain CF+ and build on our assets all will be good. Maybe a little short term pain but you need to be in it to win it.
Thought update iwould have been today. LK speaking at the Lonfon investor show on 21st April so believe it will be before then. Just wondering if we will get another presentation video. That could mean he is, or will be in Trinidad soon. Could that also tie up with any deal to be signed.
To keep things positive. Anymore thoughts on asset value of Spain and SWP. What value after the recent BOLT deal. Remember we used to be value above 100Mcap on production and expectations. We had 150 ish BOPD from Spain and 1500 ish from Goudron. POO around WTI $85 ?
There are two reasons for my quoted figure 600 to 630 BOPD The first is from the revised graph publoshed on 27-12-17. it can be seen that the proposed curve had been tevised down. Last year CERP suffered from power outages and although natural declines rates were not countered production did suffer because of the environmental issues. LK did say that he would install or reconnect the existing generator sets, yes it was has bad as that ! He also said that there would be downtime due to conversion of producer wells into injector wells and then disruption whilst testing pressures etc. Now all this will have IMHO been fast tracked to get maximum bang for buck quicker. LK would want to remain in CF+ tertiary throughout but believe he would want to maximise output in Q2,3,4. This could well mean a knock to the Q1 figures. Secondly, there are a few people on here who would love to over egg the expected figures to try and make the published figures, when available look very bad and short the hell out of the SP. I am not one of these people and class myself a very LTH. Today I have just added to my holding !
I want to change the discussion to a positive note because I am tried of all the killjoys and derampers. I would like ask what the genuine LTHs think the asset value of CERP is at present. I believe we are at present producing from Goudron between 600 to 630 BOPD. IMHO Any more and we are doing better than expected. What is interesting to me is what Spain could be worth if sold and what SWP is worth. A new agreement has been completed giving CERP 27 years of control with all the rights under their control, potential of 100% ownership in Icacos (small deal). It surely must be worth more especially with the figures of potential oil in place. Also it must be very tempting to others. MCap 35M ???
SIliv. Absolutely spot on. I know many on here are thinking the same. LTH
Philips. That is a fair point. One thing is certain. The longer CERP remain CF+ and the more BOPD they get out at the current WTI price the stronger it’s hand becomes and the more it’s future options expand.
I agree. Research LIND. See how they make their money. They always make their money come what may and without any worries of SP reaction for others. The LK effect must not be overlooked here. He is a major asset to this company by just being here. IMHO That is the only reason LIND moved their goalposts
I would be happy with 600 to 620. My guess but an educated guest based on my research and 5 years being invested here. Gone though a lot. Just my take but remember LIND shares could be sold at any time. They may already have sold their 2.5% no rns required. LK on media on two consecutive days. He always does things for a reason. Remember if everyone gets carried away with there expectation then when news breaks even a modest increase can suddenly be seen as a negative. Under those circumstancess only the MM and the shorters win. IMHO
Just a word of caution. Do not try and expect too much and over ramp. As my previous post a couple of days ago. if the time lines have been kept to they will have been working very hard on the water flood pilots. This will definitely have had a negative impact on BOPD at that time. I think a 10% to 20% increase on the cir Christmas figure of 540 bopd will be very impressive any more and it gets another tick from me. As the late George Harrison said “it’s going to take patience and time. and a whole lot of spending money” but IMHO LTH we be handsomely rewarded
Just read the RNS again and I must admit I missed the glaringly obvious comment. TH mentioned as the contact for possible partners. Is it fair to say TH is now also dealing with Spain. I believe so. Could it also mean NR nearer the door. IMHO I believe he will be gone by 1st anniversary of LK arriving. May be some sort of break clause. If so another saving by LK.
I agree with that. BOPD needs to show an increase but remember with the water flood program active since January they will have had to turn off wells to reconfigure them to injectors so will have lost some production. Also they may have had on off production due to pressure monitoring of those wells. I am not expecting too much of an increased. IMHO LK wants to fund SWP initially from CF+ he may have switched TH to look for and obtain other assets which are cash generative over the next 12 months. This will increase bang for buck and grow SP accordingly before they start major drilling. DYOR but I believe SP now firmly on an upwards trajectory LTH.
Spain- A 75% saving in ongoing costs. Invitations sort for partners....... Possible sale of interests becomes cheaper for any interested parties to takeover. All costs incurred in Q1. If we have paid out from our funds already then surely CF+ BOPD breakeven as also now decreased. We are running with even lower G&A. Win Win Win
Having been invested here since the reverse takeover I have been a very passive investor over the last couple of years but still read the BB without comment. The new website as made myself break this rule. Although a lot of good process has been made since EW left, IMHO the website is completely wrong. Where is the MAP ? Looks like local taxi company site not what it should be and defiantly two steps backwards. Come on BOD get it right. I will go back into hibernation.