The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
If there is oil in the area then I am sure Petro China would indeed be all over MATD. You never know they may even bid for the whole company. They certainly have the money at MCAP 50M. I have to question why are Petro China drilling at the border. China is a large country and I am sure they could drill anywhere they wanted in the locality if a sweeter spot could be found. Be assured Petro China are there for a reason. My take is that the only thing that would stop them moving to a sweeter spot would be if it is located outside of their area i.e another country. IMHO Petro Matd have selected their drilling spot because it is close to a producing oilfield. They could however move to any location within their licence area if that is where the sweet spot can be found. Most important thing here is to become a producer. This generates hard cash.
If Oil is under Matd,s feet then remember you could drill multiple wells from the next pad. Things looking very good IMHO.
I have been here off and on for the last three years but never posted on this one.
What I believe has happened here is a classic short. Large sell being borrowed shares then as the price drops more shares sold until the point when they are bought to balance their books. Care has to be given to good news dropping whilst short active. Matd have allowed this to happen by stating the rough time table before expected results due. A lot of money made from over exposed Share holders panicking and selling increasing the downward pressure.
My advice. Believe what you want to based on research and stick to your plan.
If they do come in a lot of money will be made y the patient investors
Just reading the posts and feel I have to restate what I believe LK stated at the AGM.
He will be buying on the open market. He also commented that the new country entry was in its final discussions having won the tender process.
Now I do not think he could lie about this, and as such due to its potential on the spare price would be deemed to be price sensitive information and therefore the board must be in a closed period.
My take is that the SWP will not happen until this is out of the way and the BOD are able to trade.
When they can I think it will make a statement to the market of their intentions and maximum any for your buck.
My advise is not to be out of this too long. Get ready for a re rate. It will come IMHO.
Good luck all LTH and don’t listen to the doom brigade
I will go back to sleep now
Why are you so negative. Must be some sort of Bank Manager type.
I just have to comment on the latest results published and counter your pessimistic view of progress.
The results are already out of date and LK will have moved forward from that position on many fronts. For me two very important pointers were included. The first being the accelerated paying down of the loan. Something that could have finished us off years ago and still a drain on our resources. The second being the Spanish problem. It is worth pointing out that even NR would have had to take on the concession under EU rules and CERP would have had legal obligations as well as the Spanish Government. CERP should have had protection causes under those rules to have the right to competitive re-tender. For me the fact that the Spanish authorities took so long to decide to enforce termination at CERPs cost after an extended period of care and maintenance must be questionable. It is only my opinion but if these costs can be clawed back then LK did achieve his statement of group profitability. To say that CERP missed their goal without this 1off 0.9M write down is clearly misleading.
My take on the RNS is that it shows - work in progress.
The Important point for me is the losses have reduced and the loan which nearly finished us off is
down to 0.3M pounds. SWP should be a material item in the next 3 months.
In LK interview in April he stated that he was working on an M&A which CERP had entered into a 90 tender period. He did not say when they entered it . Now in my opinion this could still be ticking down or it could be in period of evaluation. Either case the next 180 could be extremely interesting and may be rewarding.
Having met LK I do not believe he is a man who will settle for second best and he will be fully aware as indeed all his senior team, that they need to find solutions to move forward.
Game on
I have watched the interview several times and can not reason the timings of the tweets compared to the results. It is my take that the RNS must have been readied for publication before LK arrived in Trinidad so he would have known that generally SP would come under pressure. Going on previous patterns LK does not appear to worry too much about short term prices so the question must be asked why wait until the 17th and do the video from Trinidad when all this could have been sorted well before the trip. This leads me to think that a deal or contract was readied for signing and an announcement planned in country, but has been delayed on a technicality. If this is indeed the case then another RNS could be imminent. It may also explain why SWP program appears to be delayed by 3months I.e Monies being diverted for revenue generating opportunities prior to the SWP drill. All Hypothetical but IMHO possible GLA LTH
Something is about to drop and I do not believe it is just Q1 update. All trading updates I believe would be issued at 07:00. As previous comments it must be linked to time with the opening of another trading platform and if so must be either an alliance, M &A or something that needs to be announced to Trinidad time. Interesting but IMHO positive and material to Company growth. GLA
Happy New Year. I have not engaged on this board for over 6 months but have remained invested and topped up through January and February. Having looked at the LK video at the start of the year I took his advice. It matters not a jot what we think on here because only the BOD can influence the company and manage it’s assets. I believe certain posters on here are in another world. Invest your money and let the professionals do their job. For me this is where CERP are in another league. LK and team simply do not belong on AIM and to have them here managing and investing in our company is the jewel in our crown. LK and is team will not have wasted the last six months worrying about the SP that is for sure. They have the track record. They have the expertise. GLA LTH
Happy New Year to all LTH.
My take on the RNS is very positive. A good BOD take advantage of any opportunities that come along. With the oil refinery closing CERP potential lose their buyer. However our buyer is at present loosing money. Question is if you can not sell enough oil to cover your operating costs and you can not sell the oil at a higher price due to world market prices the only thing you can do is to squeeze your supplier I.e CERP. Since Cerp operate under a IPSC for Goudron field they can only sell to Petrotrin using its agreed price structure. LK IMHO is quick to see that if Petrotrin remove their need to supply a loss making refinery then they are free to export the oil albeit through Petrotrin at a price that reflex’s its quality. This can only be in both CERP and Petrotrin’s best interests and should lead us to a bigger profit margin and more importantly a low CF+ position. With more volume, and a higher selling price this can only compound positively for the Company and its MCap. I Have again topped up this morning and will continue to do so
This could be good news in the longer term for future earnings in dollars
Feel LK needs to put out a statement quickly to micro manage any short term fear.
Very annoying as I just topped up today. GLA LTH
For me the interesting question will be how much of the available water is been injected and at what pressure. My take is if the WF is working then rate of water being injected will be inversely proportional to the back pressure at a constant pressure. From the Christmas video I believe a figure of 700psi was quoted by SA. They have since tapped into another well to produce and make available lots more water. To me this was a clever move as the alternative would have been pipelines etc and considerable Capex. If both the volume and pressures have increased then IMHO the oil will come out even if it takes longer. I can wait and all the time POO increases.
I have been invested here since before the launch in 2011. I have not posted for years because losses in excess of 97%. If this is the end then down she should go. If I have the chance to vote I will not accept a reverse takeover. Refinance or nothing
Looks to me that progress is being made on all fronts. Like earlier comments. Remember this is the reports to END OF 2017. We are close to end of Q2 so nearly half a years worth of data not yet factored into the accounts. What I like is LIND debt keeps going down, WF building up pressure all the time, forward plans being fine tuned and game changer being lined up for 2019 SWP. This is a breath of fresh air compared to previous years and the constant dilution by NR and co. I believe NR will be out shortly if not already.
That was no throwaway remark. It was the CFO of CErp speaking in a pre planned interview. He would have done his homework.
You are a nightmare. Why constantly trying to mix things up to create negative information which is clearly wrong. To my knowledge LK never gave exact details but generalised CF+ at 540 BOPD. Now what was the price of oil then......... You got it around 45$ so surely LK quoted in the present text. On another point it was Gordon the CFO that explained the actual details back in October. Please keep your assumptions based on actual facts.
IMHO the tweet shows SWP starting up. Previous comments late last year stated that LK and team were eager to get started in the SWP. From what we have seen from the team so far they will not have wasted all this time without planning their campaign to the minutest detail. All the ducks must be lined up. Time will not be wasted It will be interesting to see the accounts covering LK first year in charge.
This makes me laugh. It’s like comparing apples and pears. It does not matter what other companies are doing if you are invested in CERP. Only what CERP are doing matters!!! The CF+ must be going down if the POO is going up and nothing changes. LK and his team are managing costs to give more bang for buck and compound the gains. Other companies may be producing more oil but their CF+ positions will be different. For myself it is only what CERP are doing that counts for me because CERP is what I and other LTH are invested in. To quote LK I am happy
Their are a lot of us LTHs in negative territory but I honestly believe that the days of dilution by the company to keep the lights on are over. That single statement for me sums up why I am happy with LK. He did what was need and stopped the rot. Now for me time is not so important. We have survived and will be very well rewarded. I have lots of patience and will play the long game. For me LK has earned as much time as he needs.
Just my take. From LK recent interview. He implied that due to the complex nature of the SWP deal he kept a self imposed silence as not to give anything away. My guess now is that all effort will be on the SWP to hit the campaign running. He knows any delays or unforeseen issues will impact on costs. To me silence is golden but LK is a professional. and the timing of the interviews was more to support the SP because of Lind and their additional free shares. TH is trusted with Spain as the RNS stated him as contact. IMHO By end of this May we will read an RNS stating the exit of NR. When pressed last September on NR he implied employment law. Maybe he used NR because he had to pay him either way. Price of oil more important at present than RNS.