The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Will the new contract be signed for Goudron IPSC and a RNS issued before July; on what new terms ?
Or will it get rolled over again. TH did say ready to sign.
Annual report of BPC on their web site.
Still voting against
Chesh
If that is the case then here is a theory.....
Could it be that they actually wanted LK and not CERP. This could explain the cryptic comment at the opening of LK recent interview which I must admit has made me ponder a number of possibilities. â I am very good at keeping a secret arenât Iâ.
What other secrets is he keeping about this deal.
To LKâs credit, I donât think he would have walked away from CERP until he felt he could no longer make a difference. The short term SP would have bombed and the BIGs would never have forgotten.
So it could be that if LK was the target then CERP had to be part of the deal. Remember he cut his teeth in off shore exploration and built a massive company from nothing,
Do they need LK more than CERP ?
If this indeed is the case then for me it starts to answer the question as to why now.
Chesh.
Thatâs my point. All positive accretive possibilities without this merger happening.
Lots of the hard work done.
You could risk all for a Rolls Royce..... when you could already afford an Aston Martin.
To make a balanced judgment you need to see all the facts clearly explained.... not dead bat responses from the CEO...
Biggest question for me is âWhy Do this Deal.â
I feel they have not answered this clearly enough, even who approach who Would be a start.
I have been wrestling with my conscience ever since this bombshell of a deal landed. My gut feel was blo...dy hell No!
I then thought about it, and felt angry and betrayed; that finally believing that we had reached the of point of ascendancy only to have our legs cut off.
Listening to the Tony interview, the answers and to an extent the questions donât cut it with me. Too many unanswered questions.
At what point is CERP currently?
1. Why does he feel a MCAP of 25M a good deal; Share price tanked to below 1p and then recovered during saffron uncertainty?
2. Does the Goudron IPSC âoven readyâ deal improve cash revenues.
3. Are we going to sue Spanish Government under EU Law and what compensation would we likely receive .
4. Whatâs the final data from SWP and effect on current OPEX, future CAPEX
5. At what price of WTI does CERP start to be become more viable.
6. Profit and loss for 2019,; this was delayed by 3 months due to COVID 19 but surely they could publish them since BPC must know what CERPs trading position is under their due diligence criteria.
7.,Why did Tony assume the CEO role only in November 2019. I donât believe the market saw that one.
8. Progress on Trinity, Will Predator buy ?
The list goes on and on. BUT any of the above will have a material impact on cash reserves and ultimately MCAP....ROI ?
My late father loved to quote âa bird in the hand is worth 10 in the bushâ
The BPC drilling sounds interesting, but what if it fails.
We have been here recently, we rolled the dice at saffron.I was at the AGM when Leo quoted 1 in 4 chance. Drill 4 holes 50% cos. His words. He did well but if you keep gambling at some point you get a bad one.
IMHO the BPC drill is a much higher risk higher reward role of these dice.
As such we need to understand the reasoning for putting CERP on the line again. We LTH of CERP are owed at least the current facts as they are. Warts and All
Sorry. I think you misunderstood me. I am just trying to get an angle on what the benefits are for CERP shareholders.
We have been trying to get 500M MCAP for three years now and with a 11% premium we get to 25M.
My take is how on earth are we going to get to 2B. All I can see is massive dilution either way, but with the risk factor increased 10 fold from were we are at present and wipe out if we hit water.
I stated last week that my holding of just over 1.2M was in the NO camp and unless the offer is substantially increased to reflect the risks, it will remain a BIG NO FROM ME
That is a good way to look at the MCAP.
To get 500m from CERP the combined company would need to be 2 Billion as we are taking about 25% of the new company.
What would be a realistic MCAP for the combined company if
1. They hit Oil in Bahamas.
2. We produce our discoveries in SWP only
3. What could we sell for under those Conditions
Willed. I hope you are proved to be correct but I fear not. Granted, LK tried to go the accretive route. Build the share price using Schroders to 5p. Develop and add assets increase SP raise funds on higher price and so on. AIM is a tough nit to crack and I was in the room when LK commented âhe was new to AIMâ. With all the above and proven increases in Reserves, we find ourselves at a 25M MCAP if we take the Merger at 11% above our current price. Itâs laughable
You and I know the SP will be played down. Always people selling for fear of wipe out; Always people buying to average down and get a bigger pot of gold.
Fact is with December drill the MM will play us like fools.
I am seriously thinking about selling my entire stake, the lot. BUT I have done so yet.
Maybe I am that fool, or foolish to believe CERP can would ever deliver that pot of gold.
Anyway, I will probably continue the reasoning of you need to be in it to win it. But no more of my money will be spent on this one. Lessons learnt
Interestingly our BOD appear to get 12 months severance pay added into the mix. Section 15 of merger documentation. LK ÂŁ300,000. AH ÂŁ250,000 and the list goes on.
Not bad with share options etc. From a struggling company like ours.
Still very annoyed at the silence and the back room talks whilst âfinding what we were looking forâ.
Totally agree. Been here since 2012.
My concern is that without a detailed explanation , which is not a given we are also going to get shafted on the SP.
Paying contractors with shares is going to look like Rhodesia all over again.
Either way my take at the moment is that weâve been sold down the plug hole, lost drill and all.
Hi Jim
What I do not get is how can our broker pushing a 21p target believe 2.6p is good value when we all know whatâs in the ground in the SWP.
I have been invested here since 2012 and thought I had seen it all. This tops everything. Ridiculous and needs a better explanation than a RNS and silence.
Personally speaking after 10 years as a loyal shareholder and speaking for the many, this is the least the BOD should do.
LK arrived with the words accretive growth.
To me this makes no sense. We have just drilled a well and found what we where looking for. LK words not mine. We have a second go for free. Why go for on the face of it such a bad deal. This makes no sense at all.
We need 25% to vote against it.
Any idea if a no vote is possible
Agreed
1M against
I would just like to add.
I believe they will be found to have made a bad decision in exiting CERP. You need to remember that it appears to be a corporate decision affecting all their Oil stocks in general, so to link this to a lack of confidence in CERP is clearly wrong. At present they are selling at cir 40% of their purchase price. 5.25p
Not too smart from where I am sitting.
Time will tell but the Black stuffing coming out of the ground in the podcast clearly isnât water.
How could we forget honest John.
âOnce bitten, hopefully heâs traded awayâ
Very LTH. GLA
I read all the posts but seldom post these days as I believe everything that could be said as already been said by the company on their priorities progress and 5 year plan.
TBH I think the timeline as changed and real progress will take longer to achieve but my take is to lay of TH. Yes he is the CEO but like every ship, there can only be one captain and clearly here that captain as to be LK. It is my belief that TH is more of a paper man. Heâs already done what was on paper very difficult to achieve and that was to sort out the leases to allow drilling in the SWP. I believe He is doing all the mundane stuff to allow LK to focus 100% of his energy on proving the OIP and itâs commercial potential of the SWP.
If he does this then the SP will take care of itself
Relax, chill and happy New Year to all LTH
I do worry when a post is signed -John
OAT did make himself a lot of money so may be the good timeâs are returning.
Once burnt twice shy.
Looking at the posts, funding going forward is a issue. If they drill another duster then the SP would drop. IMO best course would be to get PetroChina on board they have the financial weight behind them. There are a number of ways this could be done but may I suggest that they take a stake in out company. Remember they provided the data for us to drill. If the data matches Herron then what of all their other data. May I suggest that we do have a placing but at say 12p for 40 percent MCap with PC taking 100 percent. This would do two things. First reinforce the belief that we have turned the corner, and secondly it would provide much needed financial strength without letting the shorters make their money to develop our fields. There would still be minimum 20 x bagger. All IMHO
Focus on Block XX
More immediately, the focus will be on Block XX, which is in the east of the country and more pertinently is adjacent to the already-producing Block XIX, discovered by Soco in the 1990s and developed by PetroChina.
The first of the companyâs 2019 wells, called Heron, is just 500 metres from lease line with Block XIX, so it will be tapping into the same oil horizons being exploited by the Chinese.
On this basis, it is being treated as an appraisal opportunity with the chance of success put at around 75%. Heron is expected to spud sometime in the second-quarter.
The exploration rig doesnât have to move far to the Gazelle prospect, which, if all goes to plan, should be completed by the end of June before a move to Red Deer, to the south-west on Block XX.
If successful, the Block XX wells may be tested by local contractors, which means that flow rates should be established within weeks of them being drilled.
It should be pointed out the flow rates from the PetroChinaâs producing wells in the vicinity of Block XX wonât exactly get the pulses racing.
Initial rates from the Chinese wells can be anything from 50 barrels a day to 300. That said, local intel suggests those rates could be higher if western stimulation and recovery methodology is used.
However, the economics work â as PetroChina has shown â as it has peppered its licences with low-cost wells.