Anyone with any knowledge of the topic (ie not ideal speculation) have any idea how many prototypes Cytiva might have produced?
If they could produce 4,000 before the tech transfer / machine tooling from BBI and Abingdon it would help us really accelerate on these assessments but I have no real idea if they will have produce 50 prototypes for us or 10,000.
It definitely is interesting, thank you. A couple of questions if I may:
- Do you have a sense of how significant this in the volume terms of the total shares traded (across AIM and Nasdaq)
- Do you know how this compares to a typical share? Ie what would a ‘normal’ percentage of shorts on Nasdaq be?
- I assume we are certain they are shorts and not ordinary sells right?
- Do you know how long this trend has been going on for?
- Any thoughts on why this is happenning?
Thank you, really appreciate your insight on this
I posted this a couple of weeks ago but it seems even more pertinent now given the slightly panicky sell off over the last couple of days. I really believe there is a very clear and credible route to a £10 share price in the not too distant future (potentially much higher). Even if you choose to be much more conservative than the assumptions below (and believe me it’s easy to be much more bullish than them) this still looks like an astounding investment opportunity at these prices.
I’ve tried to be realistic in these assumptions, many will say I’ve undercalled them but if you assume:
- We scale up and sell 30m LFD tests a month (obviously could easily be way more than this)
- We keep that rate for 2 years (or average that rate over 24 months, whichever way you prefer to look at it)
- We make £2.50 profit per test (production price is <$2 remember)
That’s £1.8bn in profit from the lateral flow test alone, in just two years. Even if you attach no other value to the company at all that alone is a SP of around £6.00 that should be realised on announcement at an absolute minimum.
Now assume we continue to sell but at maybe a quarter of that rate for another 2 years. Add another £1.50 on to the SP Assumptions so £7.50.
Now assume BAMs delivers £400m or so of profit (conservative but realistic). Another £1 so £8.50
Add another £1 for the sewage test and you’ve got £9.50.
So close to £10 on relatively conservative assumptions just on the COVID tests and note this is just profit realised in the next few years, no long term assumptions around longer term PE, etc. All this could be announced and factored in in just the next few weeks.
Then on top of that you have:
LG Chem partnership, worth £500m+
preCISION, potentially worth billions
TMAC, potentially worth billions
A number of other partnerships already announced worth £hundreds of millions
(And note we already have £50m in cash to fund and accelerate the development and clinical trials of these)
It’s not hard at all to see the inflection points here that could add another £10 easily to the SP on top of the above and in relatively short order, potentially much more.
And all that is without any irrational exuberance, SP being pumped up, FOMO and greed driving higher, any longer term diagnostics value, etc, etc.
We’re sitting on something incredibly valuable here and not long to wait now.
I’ve just seen on Twitter apparently Boris Johnson is referring to a 100x increase in testing capacity in the coming weeks. I didn’t see this myself, does anyone have either the exact quote or better still a clip please?
Really interesting change in tone on this quote:
‘The “Holy Grail” is a saliva-based test which can be operated entirely at home or in the office, rather than being processed in a laboratary, and takes just 15 minutes to show a result, Baroness Harding added. The technology to do so does not yet exist on a major scale.’
The major scale point to me just reaffirms that it works, government knows about it and it’s all a case of ramping up production. I would read this as LSTM have validated but need BBI and Abbott to get mad production in place before the technology exists at scale.
It sounds a small point but there is a world of difference from ‘the tech doesn’t exist yet’ to ‘the tech doesn’t exist yet at scale’.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/daily-moonshot-tests-covid-nhs-paid-by-public-655089
I’m staggered at people panicking holding Avacta.
Look at the state of the rest of the market, that’s because Covid is going to trash the economy again. What is the best way to avoid that? Mass screening. Who are best placed to capitalise on that? Avacta, by far!
Ask yourself, if you are being rational and didn’t have anything invested, is there anywhere else you would rather put your money right now? Avacta, along with one or two other Covid stocks is surely the best place to be for at least the next few months
The big things to know:
- StemprintER is about to be spun off into a new company. All TILS shareholders will get shares in this on a 1:1 basis with your TILS holding. An inferior competition was recently sold for over $2bn. StemprintER is arguably worth more than the total market cap of TILS on it’s own and to my mind de risks the investment here. They will need to fund raise (placing) once spin out as being spun out with only £1m in cash but still looks a great chance to get in on this undervalued story
- There’s a potential blockbuster drug going in to late stage trials with potential for $billions of successful
- There’s a further portfolio beyond this with lots of potential
- Two US hedge funds recently took £tens of millions in a placing at £2 SP, showing what a bargain this is at these prices
To my mind one of, if not the, best risk / return investment opportunities around right now.
Great to see further confirmation of the timeline and progress.
Look at it this way. StemprintER value is arguably greater than TILS total market cap today (in fact hard to argue otherwise given valuation of an inferior competitor).
You are never going to be able to get StemprintER at a better price than by buying TILS shares now, and you get the whole value of TILS including a potential patented blockbuster thrown in for free. Looked at like this the share price right now is the bargain of the century.
You do both, definitely. Get production lined up to make as many as possible. Get the government contracts to guarantee the volume but produce enough to be able to sell some direct (through Medusa) and some to businesses at higher margins.
Sorry, yes. Freudian slip thinking about the future :-)
Agreed, interested to hear thoughts on where N4P would be with a positive read out from phase three (which feels more likely than not). 2-3x from here in the very short term feels very achievable, could also rise rapidly from there given the ridiculously low market cap once the potential becomes clear
I’m in both and agree TILS is very well primed for a strong rise from here.
Moving out of AVCT with the moonshot news / speculation over the last couple of days is very brave though. Good luck with your choices
Touched £7 at the end of last year before getting battered by the Covid market. Since then timber prices are much higher and a lot of progress has been made. Surely 2x current price in near future is a good target with potential well beyond for those prepared to hold for longer term
Thanks Ophidian. That was my take on it as well when I read about the ELISA test. I’m far from an expert but my layman’s interpretation was that the ELISA test changed colour in a pot and the LFT effectively changed colour in a strip but they were doing the same thing.
I’m sure there is more to it and that and if you wouldn’t mind elaborating on any differences I’d really appreciate it but it certainly sounds highly reassuring.
My other question is why it seems to have taken longer for LSTM to deliver results on the Cytiva prototypes than it did on the ELISA as it appears they had them at the same time? Any thoughts? Thanks and great to have you back posting on here