Member Info for PSB123

That video was the key.

Clear talking about lateral flow antigen tests using saliva, we know that is us. Talks about it being a game changer, everyone having crates of them in their bathroom, being used regularly for every student in every school and university and so on.

And this is the person advising the government!

And he has seen the Avacta test in action and refers to pregnancy style tests with high enough sensitivity and specificity to be used for mass screening. It’s all laid out there. Very, very exciting times. I’ve made another substantial top up this morning and cannot wait to see this play out.

Out of close period today and a 1m, a 250k and a 200k buy go through just after the close. I wonder if we’ll see these reported as director buys tomorrow?

To be clear he didn’t imply it would be months away, that was the interviewer putting words in his mouth. He said it would be ‘ramped up between now and the end of the year’ which I take as getting started pretty soon but taking time for production to scale up to the many, many millions of tests needed. He definitely didn’t say ‘months away’

There have been a number of comments on here about PM being a forced seller / suffering a Woodford style liquidity crunch / selling out of AIM holdings and so on. Clearly we saw the TR1 last week with their reduced holdings. Does anyone actually have any evidence, links, etc to show what is going on there? I personally think they are mad to be selling down right now but I haven’t been able to see anything that genuinely shows it is anything other than a trading decision. I’m also therefore unclear if they are likely to sell further or have simply derisked and taken some profits leaving the rest in. Really appreciate any informed response.

This is a genuine question. Can anyone give a rough, educated estimate of what the next news is likely to be and timelines. Fully understand it is guesswork but I’m interested in opinions.

Could anyone help me with a rough understanding of the timeline from here please? I gather we’re due to submit for FDA approval sometime relatively soon but do we have an indication of when and roughly how long it will take? Thanks in advance for any help

Finally the bid has been raised from the ridiculous 7.2p it’s been stuck at and we have a decent spread for once to encourage trades

Hi, I’m interested in this share and considering making a decent sized investment based largely on hearing about the Stemprinter spin out and the move from AIM to the main market. I’m going to do a bit more reading but if anyone could summarise the key reasons to invest below please I’d really appreciate it. Many thanks

Exciting week or so ahead. I had a note in my diary from early June to come back here this week as it was obvious not much would happen before that 10 week window was up and I’ve bought this morning. Looking back now at the last two months it looks like I could have got a slightly better price but not overly concerned. I’m expecting very big things this week or next and a run on from there. Good luck all

Very interesting thanks. Worth adding N4P to the list

Alistair made the point that are a multiple near term steps and he’ll keep the market updated. I read that as we can expect several very near term RNSs on the LFT alone. Key stages he highlighted:

- Complete the tech transfer to BBI
- BBI finalise a manufacturing process capable of scaling to millions of tests a month
- BBI produce a pilot batch
- Pass pilot batch over for clinical validation
- Produce further validation batches to show the process is robust and repeatable
- Clinical data in hand, technical file complete
- CE mark product
- Launch product

In addition to those he directly referenced in terms of timeline I’d also add the potential for:

- Additional manufacturers
- Additional clinical validation partners (maybe US?, we have Europe, South America and Africa covered)
- Initial pre orders
- Additional distributors (Medusa is B2C only)

Plus further news on BAMS, neutralising therapy, sewage testing, etc and that’s before even mentioning any of the cancer potential.

I’m expected a very news rich couple of weeks. It would be nice to see each RNS incrementally pushing the SP higher in advance of the big one which has to be the clinical validation.

A few choice quotes from the interview:

‘Working with BBI and Cytiva for the past couple of weeks on technology transfer’ (we’re further ahead than some think)

Interviewer: ‘I assume that means the prototype device developed with Cytiva is actually working well’
Alistair: ‘Yes I’m very pleased indeed.. with the performance of the prototypes... the performance in the lab.. is very good... I’m not going to get into the details as commercially sensitive’ (Alistair previously talked about S&S in the high ‘90’s as being the aspiration, now he’s ‘very pleased indeed’)

‘Worked with BBI over the last couple of weeks to progress the manufacturing process quite drastically’

‘BBI will produce a pilot batch, that can be done quite quickly. Our intention, which is not the norm is to use the pilot batch for clinical validation so that will shortens the overall timeline... we’ll start the clinical validation much sooner that would normally be the case’

‘Very clear stages to go through and we’ll keep the market updated as we hit each of those key milestones’ (numerous positive RNS’s to come)

‘Important to say that we expect the demand for our coronavirus antigen test to be very high indeed So we continue to actively pursue other manufacturerImg partner to ensure we have the capacity to meet that demand’ (BBI are actively scaling to millions of tests a month, it’s clear that will be nowhere near enough)

Very exciting times for all holders. To paraphrase Alistair ‘I’m very pleased indeed with my holding here’

Awesome interview. Basically confirms that we’ve nailed it in the lab. We know the quality Avacta were hoping for and Alistair confirms he’s ‘very happy’ with the performance. I interpret that as specificity and sensitivity in the ‘90’s at least which means once validated by third parties (CONDOR and / or LSTM) the doors are going to blow off here. There won’t be enough manufacturing capacity in the world for a test like this with those levels.

Just watch this interview: https://vimeo.com/445170492

Yes the price is a bit disappointing but it’s a pretty small placing at £6m. I expect this to be picked up quickly and a pretty fast recovery in the SP. This is an exciting business in a hot sector that is going places. A bit of working capital to tide things over (no pun intended) isn’t the end of the world although I would obviously have been much happier if it was at 15p than 12p. I’ve taken shares via primary bid and am very happy with my holding here.

PL75 I read it that way too.

Optimisation is done. We’re happy it achieves what it needs and BBI will now quickly manufacture an initial batch to prove it at scale. This is excellent news, perhaps somewhat lost this morning but one worth reflecting on.

We know what AVCT and Cytiva wanted to achieve, they now have achieved it and are moving to manufacture. The rest is just noise. The SP is an absolute gift on that basis.

Agree strongly with the point about limited free float. That’s exactly my point here. There’s often a very wide spread, few trades, no buying pressure to speak of and a bit of selling which has us at this joke SP. A commitment to put £10m into buying shares would put a rocket up it as the supply of those shares would be limited - especially if an ongoing commitment rather than a one off.

On paper Savannah looks great but there’s a stand off in the market that has suppressed the SP. The returns for long suffering shareholders of a reasonably modest buy back in the context of FCF would be significant here.

Surely at this stage one of the best uses of capital would be to announce a share buy back.

£10m a year would be very material at this price. It would flush out any sellers, set a floor under the SP and effectively say ‘we’re going to buy back the full current market cap in a seven year time horizon’. Cash flow is good enough to do that and it would give some much needed relief to ling suffering shareholders. Using the rest to pay down debt would help too. I’m not interested in any significant further expansion at this stage but a business that spits off £100m cash a year, is actively buying back it’s shares and rapidly paying down debt would be an absolutely outstanding investment at these prices.

Pleased with this. Can’t believe how undervalued we are.

Hopefully a re-rate can start here

Worth watching the video of Alistair Smith that Avacta tweeted this morning for some more info on the JD from back in January:

https://vimeo.com/383507081

Most interesting point for me was the question on valuing the JV. Alistair gave two comparable examples at similar stages to where we are with this partnership now both acquired at ~$1bn, note this was just for the equivalent of this partnership (nothing else in Avacta) and this was before COVID-19 which will have put a significant premium on this.

A $1bn valuation for the partnership would be the equivalent of a share price of a little under £3.50 JUST FOR THE AFFYXELL PARTNERSHIP with everything else (LFT, BAMS, broader use of Affirmers, pre-CISION, other diagnostics, other therapies, T-MAC, £50m in cash) on top of this!

Obviously AVCT have only 45% of this not the whole value but still...

Watching L2 just before 8am there was a 500k sell order on the book at £1.50 that ‘mysteriously’ was removed just as the market opened. Obviously this wasn’t to be traded but was clearly being used as a signal.

The SP then gets taken down first thing, some shares are collected and it’s rising already now. A gift for anyone looking to top up.

Looking forward to at least some of the value of this important RNS being reflected in the SP as the day goes on.