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Today is 2 weeks since we were told the LFT was going in to optimisation, a process that we were told would take 2 weeks.

Previous announcements about the EMI option scheme (like yesterday) were followed 2-3 days later by a significant RNS.

It’s also exactly a month tomorrow since the last update on BAMS and it will be exactly three weeks since the last update on the neutralising therapy.

We have issued a number of significant RNSs on Thursdays.

I posted earlier in the £1.40 thread why this share should reasonably be valued at £2.50 today and why it could accelerate dramatically on news (remember Sona increased over 100% on news of tests on 30 cases in a lab).

What are the chances of a major RNS in the morning, I’d say very high that we get one either tomorrow or Friday with potentially huge positive implications for the share price.

Added to which we’ve had a minor bit of shorting going on today which has helped with a top up price. I’ve topped up what is already by a distance my largest holding and am expecting very good things very soon, perhaps as early as tomorrow morning.

The issues over at Boo have no bearing here.

Firstly to be 100% clear we have a distribution agreement with Medusa19, not BooHoo. It’s a completely different company (although founded by the same people)

Secondly it’s not BooHoo themselves that the allegations are aimed at, it’s one of their (many) suppliers who make some garments who I am quite certain will be immediately dropped.

Yes it’s reputationally damaging for the BooHoo brand but it has no impact whatsoever on Avacta (with the possible exception of distracting the attention of the founders for as long as it takes to sack the criminal supplier and steady the ship.

Finally Medusa is only one string to the bow anyway, there are other distribution channels (to government, health services, B2B, etc). Medusa are just handling the build of the B2C website and the shipment of orders when placed. If anyone thinks that an issue with a downstream supplier on a completely separate business that we have no contractual relationship with is likely to have any impact whatsoever on our ability to sell possibly the most in demand product in the world you are out of your mind (or more likely intentionally deramping to try to drive down the share price on any spurious pretext you can).

See my post earlier for why this is currently a great price to buy and just think about how much this can rocket when we get news (remember Sona share price went up over 100% on the announcement that they had tested their LFT on 30 people in a lab!)

OK, share price prediction based on a sum of parts valuation of where we are today

Diagnostics division - £50m
Successful LFT £200 - 400m minimum
BAMS - £100m - £300m
Affirmer platform value today - £75m (could be worth £500m easily on it’s own)
PreCISION platform value today - £100m (could be worth another £500m easily on it’s own)
TMAC today - £50m as an option, this one could be worth £billions on its own if successful
Cash - £50m

Total £625m - £1bn with another £1-2bn minimum of potential. This also takes no account of a neutralising therapy. Worth noting that Myles’ valuation was £720m today with a bull case of £4bn by end of next year.

If we go with £625m that is roughly £2.50 a share as a credible valuation today with up to 8x upside from there over the next 18 months or so. An absolute bargain where we are today with a rapidly closing window of opportunity before one of LFT, BAMS or neutralising therapy are announced and this rockets.

Hi everyone, I’m a music fan and investor and come in peace.

I really like the concept of MVR and would really like to invest but I’m struggling with working out a credible valuation right now. If I look at the partnership the morning and try to evaluate it on that:

I’ve been to Brixton Academy many times, it’s a great venue, holds about 10k people and has had some amazing gigs but it’s generally bands that are just below the top tier (it’s not an O2 or a Wembley for example) and often UK focussed acts that haven’t yet made it internationally. On that basis I’m assuming some decent demand but it won’t be earth shattering, if they can sell 10k ‘tickets’ per night to a virtual show that is paid for I think that will be a decent result. I also wonder about pricing, how much are people prepared to pay when there’s so much free content out there? I try to be conservative so I’d assume somewhere in the £3-5 range (could be well out on this) and that MVR may take £1-2 of that? Assuming 5 or 6 shows a week that would be £50k-£100k a week to MVR, maybe £5m a year. On a basic PE of 10 that wold be a £50m valuation with a chunk of things needing to go right to make it true.

Obviously there’s lots of potential to expand and the real prize would be bigger venues and acts which could easily happen but based on what we know today it doesn’t come across as a screaming buy which is a bit disappointing as I’d like to invest here. Have I missed something, could anyone make a compelling counter case? Thanks

Anyone know if there is one for this?

Gives some indication of what may happen here when we announce our sensitivity and specificity results. Roll on next week.

42% of trades on IG today are shorts

49% week to date have been short so improving position but still quite a large number

It’s a racing certainty we’ll have an RNS tomorrow given it’s the last day of June. I’m expecting it to be very positive.

This has clearly been taken down today to hoover up shares, I’d expect to see a bit of a rise into close now in anticipation of tomorrow morning,.

Thanks for the replies. Very much appreciated

Hi, just researching this now. I get that the weight, size and flexibility of the product offer huge averages vs traditional PV. What I’m not clear on is the price, are we expecting customers to pay a premium for this or is a better product at same / less cost transformational play? Thanks for any help

Ah I see now. Cytiva did share the RNS on their LinkedIn profile and it has a bunch of likes but no comments that I can see. Still positive to see though

See what?

I believe there may have been a thread on this yesterday but I only managed to read this myself today so posting again now. I strongly, strongly recommend that everyone reads the latest report from Myles on valuation. It is incredibly well researched and as is always the case brilliantly written. For those who haven’t seen it yet the exec summary is:

A risk weighted valuation of Avacta today based on sum of the parts is £722m (£2.90 per share)
A reasonable best case if everything were to go to plan by end of 2021 is £4bn (£16 per share)

Risks and opportunities are all explored in full and everything is there for you to do your own calculations based on your own perceptions of the risks. I was confident in Avacta before and am even more so having gone through this in this level of detail, feels like we have a very clear path to 100% upside from here and lots of potential above and beyond that.

Thank you as ever Myles and everyone else please go and read this: https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/avacta-group-update-ii-part-iii-1.pdf

This should also be available via Primary Bid as is now becoming common practice. Very poor from the board and the broker not to make this available as an option, looks like treating private investors with contempt and needs to stop as a practice as per all the recent press coverage

I’m curious about this too. I’m pretty sure it exists and I’ve seen the thread where someone confesses and talks about their experiences doing this (in the US) but I find it completely bizarre. First of all it’s massively illegal (market manipulation) and it would be very easy to spot in any investigation with potentially quite serious consequences, Secondly I struggle to believe the impact can be that significant. Anyone with even a hint of sense can spot non-sense posts and deliberate scare tactics and the markets you see this in are generally too deep to be influenced significantly by one or two very inexperienced small holders who panic. Thirdly from what I understand these posters are quite poorly paid. So I’m left wondering who bothers taking the risk for such little benefit? Frankly bizarre but just something to watch out for and one of the more minor frustrations / irritations that go along with trading AIM shares.

Of course not. This is the primary bid shares hitting the market tomorrow, exactly as expected and announced when the placing happened. Can’t actually believe anyone would suggest otherwise, this is the most basic of basic simpler facts

20m already traded today by 11.30am. Previous highest ever volume was 10m.

Seller cleared now, ready for an inflection point for sure

Agree, I really appreciate Agadem’s posts. Please ignore this poster

Strongly agree with this

The way this works is to block the virus and stop it replicating itself. It can be used up front (eg by health workers) to stop them contracting and can be used once infected to stop the virus spreading inside you. On that basis this can be thought of as essentially both a short term vaccine and also as a cure for those infected. Incredible!