Member Info for PSB123

Read this from Myles (p12 onwards) if you want to understand the significance:

https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/avacta-group-update-ii-part-ii.pdf

Anyone who hasn’t yet come across Myles’ research notes I suggest taking the time to read the others too, especially the one on valuation where he breaks down the component parts and shows why AVCT should be valued at £1-4bn by 2021. Note the neutralising therapy is a key milestone in the journey to the upper end of that valuation

There is a huge amount of long term value here.

First, accelerate clinical trials that prove safety of affirmers. When this happens it will be worth 2-3x current SP. This would happen next year anyway but this partnership should pull forward to this year.

Second a treatment that stops the virus and repairs the damage it causes is incalculable in it’s impact for humanity and would be beyond transformative for AVCT.

Thirdly there are further opportunities then unlocked to tackle other viruses

Finally this is a JV which would get US biotech VC money in and could easily be valued at more than AVCT on it’s own today! AVCT own 45% of it.

I seriously wonder if the ‘it’s not the LFT RNS’ brigade are really invested here or just want to talk down the SP for a short or lower entry price or if they are invested if they actually understand what they’ve invested in.

It is a superb RNS and ‘should’ be worth a lot more than 5-10% on the SP. Needs investors to understand the significance though. I’m amazed at people taking it down on here as they can’t see past the LFT. AVCT is very, very far from a one trick pony and the LFT potentially isn’t even the biggest trick

Anyone who doesn’t see the significance of this doesn’t know what they’re invested in.

Not only is this a potential ‘cure’ for coronavirus is also gives the opportunity to accelerate the safe use of affirmers in humans which would be a massive, massive value inflection point for Avacta.

I’m not exaggerating when I say this could be worth even more than the LFT. If the market understands this then the SP should explode today.

The seven day moving average for coronavirus cases is currently at an all time high - over 250k a day!

The death rate is sadly also close to an all time high at over 6k people a day sadly losing there lives.

Just because it is (currently) lower in the UK than it was a few months ago doesn’t mean that is the case for the world as a whole.

And to state the obvious on this board that is with dodgy tests that aren’t widely available and don’t work very well. Sadly the reality is much worse than this. No one is waiting for a second wave, we’re still short of the peak of the first wave!

Anyone see this and was there any mention of AVCT / LFTs?

Very interesting watching SNG today, a lot of parallels there with what should happen to AVCT when our big RNS drops. Interesting to note if it followed the same pattern we’d open at a bit over £3 then shoot to over £5 before 10am. Now that would be nice to see.

Boris is apparently making a major coronavirus announcement tomorrow, joined by Dido Harding who runs the test and trace system.

He wants people back at work, surely in order to do that they need to announce something significant on testing. I wonder...

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, also gave evidence to the committee, warning that the UK must ‘prepare for the worst’ this winter, rather than rely on the development of a vaccine.

But he said he has now seen tests for coronavirus of a good standard which can produce a result in a ‘few minutes’. Sir John said: ‘That would be transformative because we could all test ourselves regularly

Very intriguing:

‘

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8525393/Hopes-build-UK-Covid-vaccine-Oxford-drug-trials-work.html

What was the email?

So Danaher are the owners of Cytiva. They have a $132bn market cap and acquired Cytiva for $21bn earlier this year.

I wanted to look into them a little and found this on their website which makes interesting reading: https://www.danaher.com/how-we-work/acquisitions

‘ Mergers and acquisitions have been the driving force behind Danaher’s sustained growth for decades--the company has acquired hundreds of businesses since 1984’

‘ More than 50% of Danaher's total revenue today has been acquired in the past seven years.’

‘ We look for innovative science and technology companies whose businesses will benefit from the Danaher Business System (DBS).

- Attractive Markets: We assess the market, including secular growth drivers and opportunities for consolidation.
- Company Profile: We analyze the company’s market position and potential, including brand strength and margin expansion opportunities.
- Value Creation: We consider potential in the context of DBS, our segments and our overall portfolio, including opportunities to extend global reach, advance technology and improve quality of life.’

‘ We will continue to invest, as we have over a long period of time, in high-impact growth opportunities. We will continue to strengthen our market-leading positions and our overall portfolio, with a clear eye towards ensuring long-term, sustainable positions in attractive markets around the world’

Now if you were a senior manager in Danaher and one of your subsidiaries (Cytiva) was collaborating with a small cap company worth a tiny fraction of your market cap but you could see had world beating potential and a product with the likely demand that our LFT has and you knew your scale could seriously accelerate and guarantee that potential do you think you would be taking more than a little look?

Pure speculation of course and based on nothing more than reading that page on their website but if it were true you might want a bit of time for some discrete due diligence before announcing the results to the world?

It’s been mentioned a few times that a release could be around midday to coincide with a release from Cytiva.

I’m just wondering if this is idle speculation or if it is actually a ‘thing’. Has anyone got any examples of when a UK and a US based business have announced things simultaneously and if so what time there were released? I’m not even sure what the equivalent of an RNS is in the US?

So retail investors get hit in the gut twice, we suffer because the placing happens then aren’t able to at least participate in it through Primary Bid. Really poor show by the board, raise if you need to but don’t neglect the retail investor base, it really is very standard to at least offer some crumbs to PIs via Primary Bid now.

Just got my confirmation, I got 2/3 of the shares I’d ordered, assume this is standard for everyone.

My top three under the radar as requested:

VDTK - potential to transform solar energy and just starting to gain momentum

SAE - massive potential to transform dirty and uneconomic coal power plants into economic biomass plants at low cost and high return worldwide

DDDD - the most undervalued biotech firm I’ve found by far. Woodford invested at £10, now trading at 40p with a phenomenal pipeline.

Good luck all and congrats here

Interesting watching the late trades coming through. Those four £20k trades are all buys. If you go back to the first one it was at a buy price at the time then three further equal sized trades followed soon after, each at slightly higher prices. so £80k of buys, the MMs immediately raised the ask which disguised these and other later trades to make them look like sells. £80k isn’t massive of course but it’s not pocket change either 50 minutes before closing and was clearly disguised by the MMs.

Anyone else out there invested and excited by all the following:

- Lateral flow test - worth £1 to the share price easily, we’re told it works, just about finishing optimisation
- BAMS - worth another 50p+ to the share price minimum. A month tomorrow since last update, overdue now
- Neutralising therapy - sky is the limit to the value here, independent academics have accredited it. Partnership with tier 1 pharma imminent
- Affirmer platform and PreCISION platforms - both have the potential to revolutionise cancer treatment, are worth many multiples of the current share price and as of the placing have the cash to advance quickly
TMAC - one for the future but this is the most exciting thing Avacta have and that is saying something
-$500m in milestone payments for current partnerships
- A diagnostic division that is growing rapidly aside from the Covid-19 work

Check out my post on valuation earlier, there is lots here to be very excited about and much of it due very, very soon.

And we have (another) deramper with a single post trying to sew doubt, yawn!

Just checked your posting history and agree you did. The real spread 10 minutes ago was about 0.5p, agree something brewing

Interesting tactics from MMs, all those trades at 127 ish are buys (I known two of them are mine). Real spread is vert tight, 126+ to sell, 127 to buy but spread manipulated to look like a wave of selling with a couple of tiny spread between trades in there from punters paying over the odds.