Member Info for PSB123

I just noticed this posted after hours.

It’s marked as a sell but his price is 119.75 and the spread at the time of the trade was 115 to 117 so can’t possibly be.

A buy of that size explains some of the crazy SP movement this morning as shares would have been badly needed to fill it. Bodes well for tomorrow

Hard

Excellent news, hopefully the catalyst to put some momentum back into the SP.

I like this comment too: ‘ We are confident that this will be the first of several new gas sales agreements signed over the course of 2020 and, through Accugas, we aim to be seen as the gas supplier of choice to the power sector in Nigeria.‘

Project 2022 - a typo not a delay of a year :-)

Good progress. Great to see Project 2023 progressing to plan, the covenant waiver and the improvements in production and pricing. A good, positive update

But in that case someone is still buying, there needs to be a counter party to the trade.

Even if the specifics are slightly off (and looking at the list of trades I don’t think they are) my main point still stands - it’s a comparatively small amount of selling - in the tens of thousands of pounds or absolute worst case very low hundred thousand or so - to knock tens of millions off the market cap.

The change in the SP is an over reaction to the volume and the price therefore should be either ignored or looked at as a golden buying opportunity. I’ve topped up twice over the last two days and feel very comfortable with my decision

If you look through the list of trades you can see the bid and ask prices and how they move through the day.

When the bid hit 18.5 you can see a bunch of automatic (A) trades and within a few seconds of each other. When the bid hit 18p you see the same thing again.

Most people set stops at round number (whole pence or half a pence) and stop loss sales are reported as A trades.

These will have helped inflate the net sales over the last few days but my main point still stands, a tiny amount of sales in absolute £’s has knocked a massive amount of the market cap.

It would be nice to see the directors make some corresponding buys as the price is clearly really volatile on very low volumes.

Oh, also meant to say that of the net sales over the last two days nearly half were clearly stops being hit at 18.5p and 18p - you can see it obviously in the trades.

That makes it more like £50k ish in net sales to drive the market cap down by £20m.

Don’t fall for it

It’s disconcerting seeing the SP where it is but don’t lose sight of the fact that about £80k net sales has knocked some £20m off the market cap.

This is not normal but the decline is clearly not being driven in massive selling.

Top up opportunity and one to ride out and not get panicked by.

Same as yesterday, middling volume (0.1% of shares traded) - 550k buys vs 650k sells, might expect a tiny reduction in SP but no, falls by >5% for the second day running.

This is not related to fundamentals and hard to believe it is 'naturally' moving so much on such a negligible buy / sell ratio. This would be undervalued at twice the current SP

There is way too much panic going on, today's drop looks very engineered to me.

There has been around 1m shares traded today, just 0.1% of the total shares outstanding and whilst marginally higher than the average day it's not an unusual volume.

Of that volume it looks like there are roughly 350k buys and 650k sells so a small skew towards selling but not something that 'should' trigger the kind of drop we saw.

Of the 650k sells over 300k of them are A trades and nearly all look like stops that were hit, the A trades happen exactly as the bid drops to that amount.

There has been a bit of volume on the sell side on L2 but nothing extraordinary and volume on the buy side too.

Basically the share price today has dropped by way, way, way more than the trading suggests it should have and on no news whatsoever. I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories but it does look like it's been walked down rather than driven down - the question is for what purpose / for who's agenda?

So the blocks were no longer on the negotiating table. Do we take that to mean Savannah has retained them or someone else has picked them up?

Not to mention the $130m cash flow from the Nigeria assets alone in a company with a £200m market cap and a ‘world class’ oil assets in Niger on top

Before today they had £400k net cash (no debt)

Now selling an asset for $6m (still no debt)

Even if you allow no value at all for the other assets the cash value of the business alone is worth twice what some are selling for. Has to bounce back to well over 1p a share just to reflect the value of the cash in the business, everything else is a bonus on top

Excellent to see this detail and validate just how strong this business is (plus all the Niger assets in top of this, plus new gas customers in the pipeline). SAVP is clearly trading at an astonishing and unsustainable discount to true value (maybe 20-25% of where it should be on any rational, even conservative valuation, 10% of where it could be with a bullish valuation). Expect this to fly today on the back of this RNS

Good news

Are these the same thing or was there a separate £1m buy as well as the directors?

The three directors all bought £331k each (so £993k total) and at a slightly different price but wonder if the difference is brokers commission / spread or if it’s a separate transaction.

Anyone able to shed any light? Either was good news just not clear if it’s one piece of good news or two???

Funding sorted, and at a better rate than originally proposed. Hope to see this fly now, Kefi is massively undervalued and as of this morning massively derisked

Pretty sure that was the bottom hit just there and bounced back up slightly. There are finally more buyers than sellers on L2 and a bit of a floor placed there. Stop losses down to 22.5p have been hit and there looks to be too many buyers to get down to 22p. MMs have stocked up over the last couple of days and will be wanting to sell at a profit and with the investor call tomorrow this feels like a coiled spring to bounce back. Certainly hope so! Either way this remains a phenomenal medium term investment regardless of any short term movement and I am very comfortable holding here and have just topped up at these low levels.

Very strong set of interim results today