Myles latest paper on Twitter5 Jun 2020 11:04
This is a superb read, strongly suggest everyone digests this fully. My Highlights from it:
- Affamir based neutralising therapies offer massive advantage over other candidates for both protecting against and treating Patients with SARS-COV-2 particularly in cost, speed to market and rate of production.
- Alistair Smith has already said that by working with a large, well resourced partner he believes an affamir based therapy would be delivered much faster than a vaccine and believes the likelihood of success would be high
- One of the most critical value inflection points is proving affamirs to be safe in man (everything suggests they are but need to be proved in phased trials). A partnership on the neutralising therapy would not only deliver enormous value in it’s own right but significantly bring forward this inflection point
- Key to this is up front payments to Avacta in partnerships would at that point move from 1-2% of total potential value to 10-15% instead - FOR ALL FUTURE PARTNERSHIPS
- Other players in similar fields have had very significant cash injections from major pharmaceutical companies - eg Sanofi’s acquisition of competing antibody based neutralising therapy provider Nanobody for 3.9 billion Euros plus major pharmas eg GSK investing $hundreds of millions in equity injections to other providers
- Avacta already have $500m in upfront and milestone commitments from Moderna, ADC Therapeutics and LG Chem In return for licensing certain affamirs in various therapeutics they are developing BEFORE this step has been completed
All in all a fascinating read and really helps hammer home the huge potential upside here with a clear route to achieving it and a possible significant acceleration from a neutralising therapy for SARS-COV-2 but critically that doesn’t rely on this. Puts the shenanigans of the last few days in perspective somewhat when you considered what this business could be in just a year or two.
Thank you Myles if you read this, as ever a hugely informative and brilliant paper.
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