To be fair it says based on current manufacturing partners with upside for additional partners.
So I would read that as having huge scope to increase as other manufacturing partners are added
This for me is one of the key passages in the RNS, easy to miss the implications, suggest everyone goes back and reads it again and thinks about what it really means:
‘The commercial opportunity created by the SARS-CoV-2 spike Affimer binders is substantial...The Group is working hard to put in place multiple manufacturing partnerships so that it can fully capitalise on the launch of a rapid coronavirus antigen test. Multiple other commercial opportunities have been created by the SARS-CoV-2 spike binding Affimer reagents, such as the collaboration with Adeptrix to develop a mass spectrometer based laboratory test, but also including a A NUMBER OF CURRENTLY UNDISCLOSED potential licensing opportunities for COVID-19 testing. The value of all these developments is impossible to quantify at this stage, but it is clear that global demand for COVID-19 rapid testing solutions is potentially worth BILLIONS OF POUNDS
Ha ha, that’s hardly the point is it? (And you should work out how to calculate a PE too).
Look at it another way, if you’re going to use a 15x multiple it’s hardly unrealistic to think that AVCT could be generating £50m profit a month in the very near future. If you want to apply a 15x PE to that then we’d have a £9bn market cap and a £30 share price, the small matter of a 20x increase from here. Sounds crazy doesn’t it? But less crazy that your post.
Why not think a little before throwing around meaningless comparisons with the sector.
We’ve got a summary of great progress, updates that we are VERY close and new news that there are diagnostic licensing agreements in place but undisclosed.
That last point is a big one to me. Suggests the millions of tests a day may be met by licensing Affirmers to the big boys which is way less risky that trying to scale up lots of different manufacturers. I suspect we will do very well out of the Cytiva LFT but the licensing may be where the billions and billions come from, especially if that is what lets us ramp up to millions of tests per day.
Fin cap essentially saying they EXPECT >100% increase from here in the short term and wouldn’t be remotely surprised by a five bag.
To be honest I actually think this is quite conservative, especially if the partnerships alluded to this morning are about scale of LTF and therefore getting to millions of tests a day / hundreds of million of revenue a month
Definitely agree. All on track and looking very good.
There was a risk we’d hear bad news this morning and that clearly isn’t there. Instead we’ve got a summary of great progress, updates that we are VERY close and new news that there are diagnostic licensing agreements in place but undisclosed.
That last point is a big one to me. Suggests the millions of tests a day may be met by licensing Affirmers to the big boys which is way less risky that trying to scale up lots of different manufacturers. I suspect we will do very well out of the Cytiva LFT but the licensing may be where the billions and billions come from
We know of three lateral flow tests doing well in evaluation (see here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results#test-2-innova-sars-cov-2-antigen-test
Of these, one is an antibody test and the other two require swabs.
If John Bell was talking about these three and Avacta’s (as seems likely) we are home and dry as there is no comparison between these and a saliva based antigen test.
Now add that to 5m tests a day. Sounds exciting
Huge market.
He also said 5m tests a day.
If we are one of the four and take a quarter of that that’s 1.25m tests a day for our LFT in the UK alone.
At even just over £2 profit a test that’s closing in on £1bn a year profit. FROM ONE COUNTRY!!!!
Plus everything else Avacta has on top of this
It’s a certainty that something will be announced.
We’ve already said in an RNS we will release results on Monday. The question is what goes alongside it. I’d be staggered if there wasn’t some forward looking progress update too
It’s about Monday. We know for certain there will be some form of update (results are being released). It’s inconceivable there won’t be at least some form of progress update alongside it so expect loading today in case Monday is explosive.
I’m personally hoping for news coverage over the weekend too. A poster on here was alluding to that yesterday
Presumably a presentation to brokers.
I’m assuming:
- RNS in the morning with some form of update (there will be the results update at a minimum but hopefully some good news on recent progress)
- Then broker update where AS breaks this down, targeted more at messages for institutions
- Then a similar summary for PIs in the 10.30 pres
Both of the presentations will likely be elaborating on whatever is announced in the morning