The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Two firms alone, BBI and Abingdon, will have a manufacturing capacity of upto seven million test a day, once issues like tech transfer are resolved and test sensitivity standards are passed.
BBI and Abingdon. Tech transfer. Pretty obvious who this is referring to!
7 million tests a DAY though???
Is no-one interested or paying attention to this? Feels like the RNS to announce this could be the catalyst for a strong rise into the demerger and could be any day now
Ophidian,
You previously said you’d heard from a source that the delays were due to the shipping timelines for the rolling equipment. Are you saying you no longer believe that to be the cause? Appreciate your insight here.
Time to buy, your time is up.
Clearly well over sold with a ridiculous over reaction.
£200k buy yesterday
Amazing cancer results already shared with more detail coming soon
New news about a cancer mono therapy that could be game changing
Very positive interview yesterday from the CEO putting doubts to rest
Seres proving the live biotherapeutics concept and 10x+ bagging on the result completely derisks 4
There is no way this should have dropped as it did and it’s not hard to imagine a share price many, many multiples of where we are today in the near future. Shorters and traders have had their fun but that game is over now and time for a big rise!
Understandably everyone is very excited about the demerger and the Covid trials right now (so am I, I see both as huge value creating inflection points) but the expected response from the FDA on approval for a phase 2 trial of Foralumab nasally administered is due any day now with the trial expected to start imminently and this doesn’t seem to be being mentioned at all. To quote from the half year results RNS:
‘Protocol for Phase 2 nasal clinical trial is finalized. The briefing package and protocol was submitted to FDA on July 22, 2020 requesting type C meeting and FDA response expected by mid October, 2020. The trial is anticipated to begin in Q4 2020.’
Think a few on here are missing the significance of this.
Way oversold on positive news on a largely irrelevant product.
Oncology is where the value is here (that’s what drove the previous rise that was ridiculously wiped out) and there were strong hints in the interview yesterday of more good news (monotherapy), now officially confirmed.
Anyone shorting or looking for a low buy in has just been put on notice
Totally agree, very strong interview and serves to remind everyone how bright the future is.
I particularly noted the reference to ‘conference season’ and sharing cancer results, including a hint (more than a hint really) about new data. It took my mind back to the deleted tweet about presenting two posters (ie two lots of data) and I can’t help but feel there is something exciting just waiting to be announced.
Loved the Usain Bolt analogy on Blautix too (like him going to the Olympics and winning a gold medal but people being disappointed because he didn’t smash the world record), the interview totally put my mind at rest that 4D really are very pleased with the results and not just trying to put polish on it.
Altogether highly reassuring and I hope helps stop the rot on the SP as clear to see how strong an investment we have here
Significantly increased holding. Buying at bargain prices following the madness of last week’s sell off. I suspect we may see more of these
I asked IG this question and they confirmed they would open up new equivalent positions in the deserted shares to reflect the change. As always no way to lose as a holder in a spreadbet compared to holding regularly.
Nasdaq equivalent of £2 is $5.16 (2 shares per ARDS then exchange rate).
Very confident we will be there soon
Hold on, there was massively, massively significant cancer news in that time period as well as Seres derisking the entire technology with their phase three results which drove an increase.
Some posters are suggesting it was IBS that drove the rise but that is nonsense, maybe the froth in the last 10-15p of the SP but the rest was driven on massively positive news that now seems to be being conveniently forgotten about by sellers
Over 30m trades after late trades have printed.
For context that is more than three times the volume on the day of the positive cancer RNS and 10x a regular day.
And all on relatively nothing news in the grand scheme of things for 4D.
To me this just how much the SP has been messed with today. Seems to have been a lot of selling and rebuying and shorting with a fair bit of deramping thrown in for good measure.
If there was anything like a rational movement on today’s news it would have been less than 10% and could have been in either direction.
Instead panic, capitulation and an SP driven to the floor. Expect this to come back strongly when this is all digested. Hopefully starting tomorrow.
P.S 30m traded, the board own over 20m and the top II circa 15m. Shows how much of the free float has been sold today
Hyper marlin, that would be correct if the SP had run up solely on IBS but the main contributor was the cancer results. Look when the SP started to rocket and the timing of the cancer RNS. IBS was always just a little bonus which makes today all the more perverse. The SP increase wasn’t because of IBS (maybe the last 10-20p was but no more). The results of IBS were decent. Then the SP falls 37%. You couldn’t make it up
Horrible day, clearly.
But IBS is a small part of 4D. Results were decent but not incredible so gave an opportunity for the SP to be battered but the recent rise and real wins are in cancer and COVID. To lose nearly 40% of value on a decent read out for a minor part of the portfolio is insane.
I’m expecting a good rise tomorrow as some rationality sinks back in and traders jump back in once they see the tide turned.
Volume is huge. The same people who gambled on it going up have been gambling on it going down magnifying the drop.
There isn’t any further to push it, strongly expecting a move back up either in to close or tomorrow to something more reasonable. We may not get back to yesterday’s price straight away (although we might) but 150p+ wouldn’t surprise me at all as short terms shorts close and those who sold to buy back later realise the bottom has been found.
Painful day but the volume shows what’s happened on what, let’s remember, is actually pretty decent just not stratospheric news
Over 24m traded already today, on track to be about a quarter of all shares traded in one day. Looks very over sold to me.
Does anyone have to hand a rough view of the size of the free float?
Excellent overview in simple language. Thank you Ambyth
As soon as there was a hint of ambiguity in the RNS it gave the MMs the opportunity to drop the share hard and scare people out. Lots of comments on here alone along the lines of ‘I got out with what I could’.
What was always going to happen was that anyone not really understanding the results or here for a short term gamble who were posting things like ‘this is going to rocket’ yesterday were going to be shaken out.
Anyone being more thoughtful who considered buying would therefore wait for the drop and a bottom to be found. It was always likely that that would be an hour or so after opening but could have been a bit earlier or a bit later.
The reality is that this is good news and we are going to a phase three trial. Plus there is an unbelievable amount of value in the rest of the portfolio. The froth and gambling money has been blown off the top and I would now expect this to rise as serious investors digest the news and buy in or top up from here.
Good luck all
We’re going in to phase three trials with a market cap of £230m and positive efficacy data from phase 2. That says it all really, the value here is astounding.
And that’s before you see everything else to come, not least COVID-19 treatment, cancer trials looking very positive and the outstanding, outstanding IP. We are THE leader in a hot field. The potential here is phenomenal. Actually hard to see there not being an offer on the table at some point as this stage with this valuation