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I struggle with that level of a sell price.
If we get the good news we hope for on the LFT I would expect a rise to a significantly higher SP than that it quite short order - weeks rather than months as the scale and scope of what we have sinks in so I wouldn’t be wanting to sell at £3, I’d be waiting for one or two multiples of that at least.
If we don’t I do think we will get to that level but it will be a long slog.
Success on BAMs with some orders and a bit of hype that’s the LFD is close might get us to £2.50 / £3 but again would you really want to sell just before the big news really takes this forward.
To me it’s either a bigger outcome or a worse one (hope not) but if we get to £3 then I think selling at that point would be selling yourself short because I think we’ll only the get there in the short term on the way to something significantly higher soon after
Oops, plus another £297k reported after 5pm yesterday at above the ask too (although at a time that is sometimes spreadbet firms repositioning so not sure if as much can be read into that one). Does seem to be some big buying about though
Wow, that is nearly half a million pounds worth of trades in three transactions all within an hour or so late yesterday and all at or above the buy prices that were being printed at the time. Interesting. Surprised not to have seen more movement in the SP for that
I would definitely take that. Deliver on COVID tests, prove the concept with some big orders and spin the diagnostics division out for a nine figure sum (plus potentially recurring royalties depending on the shape of the deal).
The retain big war chest for cancer treatment to accelerate that and fight of predators and special dividend to shareholders of the balance.
That would be a very, very strong outcome. But this route is only viable if we prove both the concept and commercial potential through the Covid tests with some very sizeable orders. In that situation it would be hard to resist.
I know he doesn’t post on here any more so sharing what Ophidian has put on Twitter to help bring it to a wider audience.
He has a screenshot of the bid document and it specifically refers to affimers
Can’t link directly to it but go to his profile and look at Tweets and Replies: twitter.com/ophidian18?s=11
I think if the Innova test was Avacta’s we’d be well past £5 and probably would have just surged past £10 on Boris’s presentation today.
Still expect this to happen as long as our test is sufficiently more attractive (and I believe it will be for a variety of reasons)
I’ve been trying to find comparables to the 300 pg/ml claim since this morning.
The link below is to a research paper into an Elisa test (not Avacta’s). It’s not an easy read but seems to claim that an Elisa able to detect spike proteins in the hundreds of pg/ml has sensitivity similar to PCR.
If my interpretation is right and we have a LFD with sensitivity similar to PCR all bets are off. That would blow the doors off if true. Given that Affirmers are the USP it’s surely conceivable that we could blow other LFDs out of the water in sensitivity?
https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/diagnostics/diagnostics-10-00594/article_deploy/diagnostics-10-00594.pdf
Just to clarify.
I’m pretty sure we haven’t developed two different tests, just two different collection methods for the sample. The new one being in line with what the governments advisors say they would like to see
Noticeably no mention of Condor / Falcon / Government evaluation on any of the products even though we know we are being evaluated through those schemes. It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that AS isn’t allowed to talk about them so is only referring to the private evaluations. He could have made a passing reference without giving anything away but chose not to. More evidence of an NDA, it;’s in the public domain that we are part of those evaluation programmes but no mention at all in the interview
Just thought I’d re-emphasise this amongst much dross being spouted own this board today.
We have now been told for the first time we have a highly SCALABLE manufacturing process that works and produces highly sensitive tests.
We already know that we will sell every single test we can manufacture. That has not changed one bit. We are objectively and demonstrably nearer to the LFD being available at scale than ever before. And it is looking increasingly likely that the volumes of test manufactured will be very, very large indeed.
Plus BAMS is being tested in ‘multiple locations around the UK’ this week.
Still very convinced that the price will drift back up from here now after games / stops/ over selling this morning then the next substantial news will send it rocketing
Scalable production more or less there.
I was worried about John Bell’s ‘cheeseburger’ comments now addressed. We may yet bring both swab and saliva tests to market for different environments but if the government want swabs, we now know we can supply them. Remember that delayed tender?
Affirmers remain the USP, we are also a British / sovereign supplier
We will still sell every single test we can make and have confirmation that the production is highly scalable. I now see very little risk in achieving at least 10’s of millions of tests sold a month - possibly an awful lot more - and corresponding revenue dwarfing the current market cap.
Lots of positive signs on BAMS / mass spectrometry too over the weekend, confirmation in an RNS that validation is underway at multiple sites across the UK.
We have enough experience now of drops on any RNS that isn’t ‘we’re launching with billions of pounds of orders’ it was obvious the MMs would take this down this morning, people would panic sell / stops would be hit then the SP would recover.
Pleased to say I bought more on those drops and expect to see the SP back towards at least 130 in short order and much, much much higher in the near future.
Hi, can anyone confirm if IG are still closing only for spreadbets on AVCT or are opening buy positions available again.
Thinking about putting another position on but don’t want to deposit money into IG then not be able to use it and I can’t see any way of telling if a buy is available without depositing. Any help gratefully received.
Interesting parallel with the day before the placing (4th June) by the way.
On 3rd June volume shot up to a much higher than normal level, (particularly late in the day from memory), although on that day the price tanked ahead of the announcement next morning.
Here’s hoping we’ve seen the opposite effect taking place today
Huge volume of shares traded today - 6.5m, one of the bigger trading days of the last six months.
Given that there wasn’t much happening until just before 3pm a huge proportion of that was in the last hour and a half.
Really interested to see what tomorrow morning brings