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Hi, looking to potentially invest here. I assume when Abbingdon IPO’d they must have issued some forecasts for this year and future years. Anyone have access to anything they issued? Thanks

I am very confident the SP would be significantly higher than £2.50-£3.50 if / when we do announce a world beating LFT and manufacturing capacity to get it made in bulk.

That’s the whole option price built into this share. If the upside wasn’t so great the risk / reward wouldn’t be worth it. Anyone who thinks news of that magnitude would only take Avacta into the £2 range should really reconsider whether they should be invested at this stage at £1.30.

I fully expect us to be in at least the £5-10 range on news of a world beating LFT and feel this has been well justified on here many times before on the cash generating potential of that device.

Once we see significant orders I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an SP in the teens. The risk here is we don’t produce what we all hope, the rewards if we do are much more significant than some on here seem to be speculating.

When correcting for the 2:1 ration and currency there’s about a 20% gap between TILS price and TLSA for exactly the same thing.

I’ve started buying TLSA in IG as surely that has to increase to match TILS. Am I missing something, why isn’t everyone doing this until the price equalises?

Interesting reference at the end to ongoing work to assess the ability of LFDs to detect the new variant. Probably referring to Innova but you never know

Where is this from?

And then some.

If truly successful it’s worth a lot more than $1bn

Hi Benbenbenben. A few weeks ago you mentioned that a journalist friend at a broadsheet had interviewed Alistair Smith but you weren’t sure when it would be published. I’m pretty certain it hasn’t been but quite a while has passed. Any chance you could find out if it’s being held back or if it’s just been dropped please? Many thanks

Ouch for Novacyt holders.

Definitely opens the door for BAMS. Couldn’t be a more perfect match between need and product

I saw this. Surely it was very obvious that it was a joke? Never for one second did I even consider that this was TV coverage

‘New’ test and asked not to reveal the manufacturer does suggest not Innova. They are not new (already heavily trialled in Liverpool so wouldn’t be doing a random trial in a school) and the brand is already known to the media so doubt they’d be precious about not revealing it.

Doesn’t necessarily mean it is us but reason to hope. Worth remembering a number of big buys in the last 24 hours or so and the SP ran up today at what I assume must be about the time these tests were being taken.

Fingers crossed

I struggle with that level of a sell price.

If we get the good news we hope for on the LFT I would expect a rise to a significantly higher SP than that it quite short order - weeks rather than months as the scale and scope of what we have sinks in so I wouldn’t be wanting to sell at £3, I’d be waiting for one or two multiples of that at least.

If we don’t I do think we will get to that level but it will be a long slog.

Success on BAMs with some orders and a bit of hype that’s the LFD is close might get us to £2.50 / £3 but again would you really want to sell just before the big news really takes this forward.

To me it’s either a bigger outcome or a worse one (hope not) but if we get to £3 then I think selling at that point would be selling yourself short because I think we’ll only the get there in the short term on the way to something significantly higher soon after

Okehurst - is Innova a nasopharyngeal swab? I thought it was lower nostril the same as our new method?

Oops, plus another £297k reported after 5pm yesterday at above the ask too (although at a time that is sometimes spreadbet firms repositioning so not sure if as much can be read into that one). Does seem to be some big buying about though

Wow, that is nearly half a million pounds worth of trades in three transactions all within an hour or so late yesterday and all at or above the buy prices that were being printed at the time. Interesting. Surprised not to have seen more movement in the SP for that

I would definitely take that. Deliver on COVID tests, prove the concept with some big orders and spin the diagnostics division out for a nine figure sum (plus potentially recurring royalties depending on the shape of the deal).

The retain big war chest for cancer treatment to accelerate that and fight of predators and special dividend to shareholders of the balance.

That would be a very, very strong outcome. But this route is only viable if we prove both the concept and commercial potential through the Covid tests with some very sizeable orders. In that situation it would be hard to resist.

What makes you think it is financed by us?

I know he doesn’t post on here any more so sharing what Ophidian has put on Twitter to help bring it to a wider audience.

He has a screenshot of the bid document and it specifically refers to affimers

Can’t link directly to it but go to his profile and look at Tweets and Replies: twitter.com/ophidian18?s=11

I think if the Innova test was Avacta’s we’d be well past £5 and probably would have just surged past £10 on Boris’s presentation today.

Still expect this to happen as long as our test is sufficiently more attractive (and I believe it will be for a variety of reasons)

I’ve been trying to find comparables to the 300 pg/ml claim since this morning.

The link below is to a research paper into an Elisa test (not Avacta’s). It’s not an easy read but seems to claim that an Elisa able to detect spike proteins in the hundreds of pg/ml has sensitivity similar to PCR.

If my interpretation is right and we have a LFD with sensitivity similar to PCR all bets are off. That would blow the doors off if true. Given that Affirmers are the USP it’s surely conceivable that we could blow other LFDs out of the water in sensitivity?

https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/diagnostics/diagnostics-10-00594/article_deploy/diagnostics-10-00594.pdf

Just to clarify.

I’m pretty sure we haven’t developed two different tests, just two different collection methods for the sample. The new one being in line with what the governments advisors say they would like to see