Member Info for ps200306

Go on then -- give us list of news coming in September.

This board has an extraordinarily high lunatic quotient.

Honestly, I haven't been able to fathom how SOU managed to stretch its funds as far as it has. Obviously now it is literally running on fumes. 15%/qtr is insane, but probably actually SOU's best option in the grand scheme of things. Remember, last year's 2.5m loan note could well end up costing 10% of the company. A straight cash loan, no matter how expensive, is the better option. As long as the Managem deal is a slam dunk, who cares. Just as long as this doesn't turn into a Graham Lyon time dilation special in which he takes us into orbit around a black hole -- where 3 months equals 1 year for us ordinary humans, and Graham then jettisons the cargo (us) into the black hole in order to escape with his own skin intact. Obviously I'm joking. That would never happen under Graham's trusted leadership. 🤡😏🙄😮😒😕😟🤪😵

While the poster who brought it up hasn't the first clue whether there's lots going on in the background, it really better be true. It's well over two months since the divestment RNS which set out eleven preconditions, and that wasn't an exhaustive list (judging by the phrase "inter alia"). So far we've had one condition met. While I wouldn't expect them all to be RNS'd individually, we must be due some sort of update right around now.

I could very easily see this process dragging on through the end of the year. It's SOU after all. And then we're only on the starting blocks for Phase 2 FID. By then we'll also know how much delayed Phase 1 is. All those things will probably take priorty over any new drilling plans. But no doubt it all fits into Graham's definition of "near term" whereby three months almost invariably means a year or more.

Certainly SFA going on in the market. SOU is performing like a tranquilised tree sloth at a Just Stop Oil sit-in.

And you would know this how ... ? Ghost tea ladies in the sky? 🫖🤣🤣🤣

We've been given to believe that the agreement with Managem is legally binding. So it will go through unless there are undisclosed skeleton's in SOU's closet.

10p? ... maybe if Phase 2 was completed, M5 was drilled and came in with the same volumes as TE-5 *and* was connected to the pipeline. That's all years away, if ever. Shorter term, my target for when the Managem deal closes is 1.2 to 1.8p.

"Graham, good on him keeping us regularly updated…."

... except it would be nice to have an update on the most critical Phase 1 dependency, the LNG storage tank. It seems to have been jinxed since the weird RNS of 29-Nov-2022 when it was mysteriously separated out from the supply-and-operate agreement with ItalFluid on the rest of the LNG plant. Did it say something about ItalFluid's financial stability that SOU had to step in to finance the storage tank, and is it just a coincidence that the only component that SOU will actually own is the one most behind schedule?

Ah, so when you announced that the train had left the station several weeks ago you just forgot to say that it was heading the wrong direction?

Yes. The well obligation was originally in the Anoual initial period but has been moved out (several times). There's been no mention of a specific timeline for the Managem version, but Graham has indicated that it would be "sooner rather than later" (a favourite phrase of his). Who knows what that means.

??? Those are in Dubai ... 7,500 km from Morocco ???

"Good to hear that Graham also sometimes struggles to pronounce Attijariwafa."

Sometimes? 🤔 I've never once heard him pronounce it correctly. You'd think he'd make a better fist of the name of the bank that's providing the Phase 2 financing. Speaking of which, the loan term for Phase 2 is 12 years but no specific interest rate has been mentioned. Assuming something like 7%, an amortised principal repayment calculation would put Phase 2 development costs including interest at around $450 million. When you fix the 1000x overestimate in i-man's ChatGPT calculation, that's about a third of the total value. Also bear in mind that 10% of output goes to LNG which won't generate *any* profits worth speaking of. And finally that the total value is not just a matter of multiplying total volume by some price per mmbtu. The time period and discounting model employed is important too. The end of economic life of the TE5-horst is projected to be 2049!

The long and short of it is that a realistic estimate of value is not accessible to mere mortals like you and I. Fortunately we have a paid advisor capable of running such models. And they've told us the value is 3.2p per share. Targets like M5 could add materially to that (note: chance of success 21%). I always get the impression that folks don't like the SP Angel valuations because they are so far out of kilter with the Parson's era "hallucinations in the desert" estimates. But they are the best we've got.

That ChatGPT calculation went wrong on the very first line: "1 Bcf = 1,000,000 MMcf ". It's out by a factor of 1,000.

Why would fantasy figures plucked out of your back orifice rattle me? It's clear you are driven by some sort of compulsion to lie and you're not going to stop of your own accord. I could ignore you but you could end up costing some poor unfortunate a lot of money, which you clearly don't care about. The next best option is to expose you by reference to cold hard facts.

Adam: "Nice step by step climb..lots of shares are red.soundenergy up 5%.today"

What actual fantasy planet do you live on? Here is the daily change for every trading day since the divestment announcement:

-2%, -1%, 1%, -1%, -3%, -1%, -3%, -3%, 4%, 11%, -5%, -3%, 1%, -4%, 2%, -1%, -2%, 1%, -4%, 1%, 7%, -1%, 2%, 1%, -6%, 4%, -2%, 0%, -4%, 0%, 2%, -4%, -1%, 6%

A random walk of thirteen up days, nineteen down days, two no change, down 7.5% overall. Average trading volume 4.3 million, little different from the average over the past year. Where in that do you see a "nice step by step climb"??? I'm genuinely curious. What I see is a market that has treated Sound's "big news" as a complete non-event.

Nothing new that we haven't heard. The SP continues its random walk (up 4% today while many markets continue to get hammered). It's all noise until we get some actual news.

Share price back below 0.9p. Surely a sign of rude health. Any of the rampers care to explain? 🤔

(Actually, allow me. The markets are getting slaughtered today. All part of the ongoing saga of increased volatility, the elephant in the room of looming US recession, debt worries, deglobalisation etc. etc. Nothing to do with SOU fundamentals. Just as the upward blips have not been either).

Pescado, delighted for your news. Stay well.

Adam, not going to follow you down to the gutter level of your vile post. I refer to you as a serial fantasist because you post non-stop fact free speculation. I've backed that up previously with a historical list of your posts, happy to do it again. I certainly don't attack "everyone" on here, I hold most in high regard. I reserve my ire for the fact-free rampers -- yourself, ktf, and ShareTrader123 back in the day -- none of whom contribute anything meaningful and whose holdings turn out to be a pittance. Nasty pieces of work, all three of you.