Member Info for ps200306

Sure, the Calvalley are ridin' over the ridge totin' their six-guns. Spotted by a tea lady from the local saloon.

All within the 45 day period of exclusivity.

Oh wait, yesterday marked *345* days.

And it hasn't been exclusive for a long time.

Delusional.

If SOU in their current cash predicament are paying a tea lady, it's time sell your shares ;-)

Statistical noise. Half a million is 0.025% of the company. The sort of volumes that have been associated with big moves in the past are in the tens or even hundreds of millions. The average daily volume in the past year is 3.6m and the SP has just gone sideways. There have been 44 days with movements greater than 10% so it's not uncommon.

It'll take some actual news to get this dog moving. Even then it will be predators swooping in for some quick profits, creating a temporary spike and a bear trap for anyone foolish enough to think that the Calvalley deal is some sort of seismic turnaround.

"Easy ps20...rattled are you.my investment.my call.if you don't like it.do one.."

Rattled by "news" of rigs moving in June which isn't news at all? No. I would rather say I'm mystified that someone can trot out prediction after prediction for months, even YEARS on end, and hasn't a scintilla of shame when EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM TURNS OUT WRONG. But this time it's not even a prediction, just childish innuendo about rig movements that we already knew about.

"5p here we come very soon."

Assuming "very soon" means sometime in the next three months, I bet you £100 you're wrong. Heck, I'll give you the whole of 2024. Willing to take me up on it?

Calm yourself down Mystic Mug and read the easily available public information. Graham's presentation was just a reiteration of what was already stated in the 2023 final results way back in April. Rig activities are scheduled for June as part of the workovers of TE-6 and TE-7. It's all part of what we KNOW is required to complete Phase 1 "only" a year behind schedule. When did this become some big mysterious thing that we only got CLUES to in Graham's presentation? If you're going to pretend to be some sort of oracle, at least acquaint yourself with what everyone else already knows.

By the way, Soundboy, I explained my casual interest here in response to your question. If your interest is equally casual, as you say: "if it comes off great if not NO ISSUE" ... would you care to explain your daily ramptastic comments about "a monster RNS" and "exciting life changing times". That doesn't sound very casual, especially since you have never provided a single solitary piece of evidence to back anything up. And you've been predicting the "monster RNS" every week for well over six months. A casual observer might say you were living in a fantasy world.

Soundboy, it's not going to be a "monster RNS". It's going to be what has been signposted for a year -- handing over half of SOU's interest in Tendrara in return for enough cash to get them through Phase 1 and the equity portion of Phase 2. Phase 1 revenue is not even enough to repay the bondholders in 2027 and there is the potential for further dilution in the case of any cost overruns (or in the even shorter term if there are more conversions from last years disastrous issuance of loan notes).

If everything goes swimmingly, they will be back on track to achieve the magnificent target SP of a few pennies in the last research note. You may pin all your hopes on fresh drilling but personally I don't see much upside for shareholders in the next three years, except maybe the few who bought at sub-1p (and there can't be many of those otherwise the share price wouldn't be where it is).

Although I still have a considerable amount invested here I've already taken most of my losses and the rest will be worth a relative pittance no matter how well SOU does. That leaves me still interested enough to keep an eye on things, and disinterested enough to be able to call it as I see it. Not at all stressed and no hidden motives.

Let us know if you ever pay attention to any actual facts. Faith in the absence of evidence doesn't look so clever. SIMPLISTIC, maybe.

I take a slightly different view. We have some delays that we don't know are unavoidable ... or even that they are mere "delays". I mean the Calvalley deal. Something has gone wrong there. After two extensions to the exclusivity period last year we have now gone four and a half months past the expiry date. There is no point speculating what the problem is because there's booger all any of us can do about it except wait and see.

However, the idea that it was just a couple of extras I's to dot and T's to cross before the lawyers could sign it off is beyond credibility now. Neither is it ongoing due diligence. Graham is staying tightlipped about it -- he devoted ten seconds and one sentence to Calvalley in his spiel at the investor presentation, and that was to say that "we are trying to get it over the line and we are frustrated". And though some on here have speculated that Calvalley are just waiting for other elements such as the bank financing to get sorted out, it's the other way around -- the financing depends on the FEED update which cannot complete without the Calvalley deal. All we can say is that nearly a year on there are no binding terms with Calvalley and -- whether for confidentiality reasons or otherwise -- SOU management won't say why.

They are playing an increasingly dangerous game. I do think SOME news must be coming down the wire shortly because SOU can't survive more than another quarter without a cash injection according to the cash position outlined by GD.

Adam2911 doing the daily ramp ... which means good news from soundenergy ISN'T imminent. 🙄

SoundasaPound1, I agree with your analysis. I could throw in some caveats but in broad brush strokes you've painted it right.

I didn't think GL sounded 100% confident about Calvalley (I'd fault him if he DID -- he MUST know that dragging out the process this far beyond the exclusivity period is a serious risk). The risks thereafter are: i) Phase 1 and/or 2 have cost overruns that SOU has to borrow for or give Calvalley a bigger slice as per agreement (i.e. more dilution), ii) Phase 2 FID drags out for as long as Phase 1 did ... which would take us to the end of the decade!, iii) no funds for drilling beyond TE-4 and the ever-present risk of cementation.

I don't think GL is a liar. He just put all his eggs in the Calvalley basket which became -- from SOU's point of view -- "too big to fail". It's understandable: SOU has struggled at every stage to find partners for development and exploration, so letting a big fish slip off the hook must be painful.

It's now *six years* (June 2018) since SOU applied for the Tendrara production concession and announced a BOOT arrangement with a consortium allegedly stepping up to fund development. First gas was supposed to be 2020. A year later things hadn't worked out and SOU was trying to sell the company. The potential buyer disappeared without a trace in 2020, whereupon SOU announced the microLNG project which was to be an "innovative, fast-track, cost efficient ... [and] attractive route to generating early cash flows from the Concession". Financing discussions were ongoing, FID expected in Q2 2020 and first gas in 2021. Alongside this, we've heard more than once that farmout discussions with "a wide range of credible and well-funded parties" were taking place.

I don't think any of these discussions were fabricated. They simply never came to anything. But you'd think that the experience would teach SOU that talks are just talks until people have signed on the dotted line. It's been five months since Calvalley has any exclusivity arrangement with SOU as far as we've been told. That has to be a giant red flag to anyone who assumes that Calvalley are vigorously pursuing this deal. It's also a serious danger to SOU and extremely foolish of them to continue on this way. So Graham is either being foolish or he is actively pursuing other avenues. You can't have it both ways.

Currently the rig is only 100% late compared to the stated position as recently as 19-Feb (when it was due in late March) ... and it's STILL not here. In October last we were told that fabrication of the mLNG storage tank was complete and due for delivery by year end. Now it is looking doubtful for the end of the FOLLOWING year. This has nothing to do with the "wind sock" on site. I mean, the statement that the mLNG tank fabrication was complete must have been a flat out falsehood. Is anyone going to take responsibility for this fiasco?

And at the end of all this, Phase 1 is worth next to zilch. (Unrisked value 0.5 pps according to SP Angel).

"Does it mean they have to drill in Anoual before July this year?"

No.

And here's *my* summary of a few selected points:

I think Graham has to put a brave face on things but I he understands that Calvalley has become a serious risk as the conclusion of the deal drags on. It couldn't really be otherwise. I agree with him there's no reason for Calvalley to string SOU along. However, there was an odd-sounding statement that "the delay is getting a fully binding agreement that both sides are able to sign". We can't expect all plain sailing, but is there some sort of serious tension there? He and GD were at pains to point out that it's their job to ensure that there's a plan B. That's no guarantee that there *IS* one. Same with plan B for the LNG storage. The best laid plans can go awry -- the current delays are proof of that.

There were a lot of the usual platitudes: everyone is working hard, it's not going as fast as hoped, all elements of Phases 1 and 2 are complicated and interrelated. It may all be true but it's not very reassuring.

I thought GD's answer on how the bond was going to be paid was a bit evasive. We have to "look at revenues from Phase 1 and 2 together". But Phase 2 is very unlikely to be bringing in money when the bond falls due. We have to take his word that it'll be sorted out by a "corporate debt strategy". Overall there's a lot of stuff that has to be taken on trust. Everything will be fine until it isn't.

Anyone pinning their hopes on successful new drilling is being very optimistic. There's no evidence that SOU will have the money for it under their own steam before 2028 or later. And no sign of anyone rushing to farm into Sidi or anywhere else despite years of "talks".

Here is ChatGPT's summary of Graham's presentation and the Q&A:

1. Year-end results disclosed

2. Recent progress at Tendrara

3. Approximately 65 people on site

4. Safety measures in place

5. Two layers of tank construction complete

6. 11 layers in total planned

7. Jacking system in place

8. Well rig activities pending

9. Special metalogy for completion tubing

10. Safety and control system installation ongoing

11. Equipment awaiting rig arrival

12. Phase two work focused on office-based activities

13. Bank debt negotiations ongoing

14. Equity partner search in progress

15. Gas sales agreement modifications underway

16. Questions addressed in investor meetings

17. Recording and Q&A available post-event

18. Company directors unable to trade during closed periods

19. Cash flow management a priority

20. Placing to raise funds not confirmed

21. Share price improvement desired

22. Gas delivery targeted before year-end

23. Confidence in meeting development targets

24. Supply delays addressed

25. Temporary storage options explored

26. Customer readiness assured

27. Funding and debt obligations managed

28. Potential alternatives considered

29. Moroccan state support acknowledged

30. Funding adequacy for production assured

31. Project complexities causing delays

32. Partnering deal delay addressed

33. Corporate debt restructuring strategies explored

34. Director trading restrictions explained

35. Calvalley deal negotiations status clarified

36. Interest in City license discussed

37. Phase one cash flow projection discussed

38. Feed process not yet initiated

39. Calvalley deal closure timeline uncertain

40. Continued efforts to finalize deal with Calvalley

Video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJhxgBBjHP4

I fed the video to ChatGPT to summarise. Here is Gary's piece:

Gary Dempster presents an overview of the company's year-end results, emphasizing the strategic evolution since 2020. He discusses the company's shift from an exploration-based model to a monetization strategy, focusing on developing discovered resources in Morocco. Dempster outlines the challenges faced during this transition, including restructuring corporate debt and resolving a legacy tax issue in Morocco, which affected investor confidence.

Despite these challenges, the company has made progress in securing funding for its projects. Vendor financing and debt financing have been obtained for phase one of the project, with negotiations ongoing for phase two. Dempster underscores the time-consuming nature of these endeavors due to complex transactions and interrelationships with various stakeholders.

Despite being in an investment phase with no revenue generation, the company has maintained capital discipline, significantly reducing corporate expenses over the past few years. This disciplined approach aims to optimize working capital until revenue generation begins from the phase one project and subsequent phases.

Key financial metrics for 2023 include a pre-tax loss of £7.2 million, primarily attributed to the ongoing investment phase. Administrative costs have decreased compared to the previous year, reflecting the company's efforts to streamline operations while maintaining project development activities.

Additionally, Dempster provides details on the company's financial structure, including its market capitalization, cash position, existing debt obligations, and financing facilities. Notably, the company has managed to secure funding through various instruments, including a convertible loan facility.

In summary, Dempster emphasizes the company's strategic focus on project monetization, despite the challenges encountered along the way. The presentation provides shareholders with a comprehensive overview of the company's financial performance, strategic direction, and efforts to unlock long-term value.

"It's been half an hour and there's not been a negative spin put on it. Come on guys you were all fingers last night."

Well, it's only half an hour since I got out of bed. Does that count?

Yes, this RNS is a sign that SOU is gearing up for exploration and Graham will be announcing the drilling plans tonight. I'd expect to see a large bounce in the SP today. NOT!

I am quite literally speechless how clueless some of the people on here are. SOU have missed a bunch of work requirements on their permits. Or, rather, they WOULD have missed them had ONHYM not conveniently kept extending them or altered the terms. I predicted here a couple of months ago that we would be getting an RNS about an Anoual permit extension, if only the for the obvious reason that SOU had no chance of meeting the terms and ONHYM seem to have nobody else to turn to.

Did anyone even bother reading the RNS in conjunction with the December 2022 one? Because if you didn't, you probably didn't notice the stunt that was pulled. Today's RNS says that all the terms of the initial period were met and SOU are entering into the complementary period. The initial period was supposed to finish around the end of 2022 and the work requirement included the drilling of one exploration well with a Triassic objective. SOU obviously missed that by a country mile. They got a 12 month extension to the start of 2024 and missed that deadline too. Now the extension has itself been extended to July to keep them legal, and the well commitment has been quietly dropped -- you didn't see THAT mentioned in the RNS.

In fact, the RNS could be read by a sufficiently gullible person (which clearly includes some on here) that it's all about SOU's plans to move ahead with drilling M5. But that reference is merely to the aspirational farmout program announcement in a nearly two-year-old RNS, for which SOU got no takers for the drilling part.

Calvalley clearly saw an opportunity to make money by gouging a large chunk of the Tendrara concession from SOU while they were strapped for cash. And they still haven't even fired up the engine on that piece. Assuming they do, it's no guarantee they have any interest whatsoever in going wildcat drilling in Morocco's calcification-prone Triassic. This is just another can kicked down the road. There will be plenty more over the next 2-3 years during which SOU have no money for exploration.