Member Info for ps200306

1.8p on Calvalley deal for about 5 days before falling back.

Remember there is literally nothing in this deal we didn't know about last June. So much "blah" in GL's latest summary on vimeo. "It hasn't gone as fast as we wanted". No $h1t Sherlock! It never does, does it? Exclusivity period was supposed to be finished in August followed by "confirmatory due diligence". That turned into legal due diligence and financial due diligence separately, presumably to convince us stuff was happening. It's eight months later and still doing due diligence.

Phase 1 has been held up by "supply chain issues, wars, shipping in the Red Sea". Never any specifics about which war held up which item. I was waiting for him to mention famine, pestilence and the rest of the horsemen of the apocalypse. What's the story with the LNG storage tank? How does a tank hold up the whole show? One thing's for sure, Graham is not a "buck stops here" kind of chairman.

I've no doubt this will all get sorted. But when? And what is the cost to SOU of all these delays? Inability to pay off the bond is definitely one. Are we going to see similar delays and/or cost overruns on Phase 2. If SOU end up needing an advance of more funds from Calvalley it could reduce their revenue from Phase 2 by 10% for the first five years. Their 35% is already reduced by the SLB 9% ... needing funds from Calvalley could leave them with just 16% of Phase 2 revenues until well into the 2030s.

Anyone investing will need a long time horizon. Some of the recent buyers will be delighted to exit at or near 2p. There will be more selling pressure all the way up as long time investors will be happy to take their money and run as they hit breakevens. That's why I stick by my prediction of last June -- no sustained share price above 2.5p before 2026 at the earliest.

Count me out too Mr Fiction. Not interested in joining any coalition of the disgruntled. Thanks but no thanks.

"we believe in the mighty soundenergy...now trot alone.theres a good little boy".

Fortunately cult membership is not a prerequisite for posting on this board, so I won't be trotting anywhere. You stick to what you know best and I'll do my own thing, how about that.

Now, anyone else care to point out what I missed in the investor presentation? What I got from it was everything we already knew about last June, plus we're an extra year behind schedule.

"Hope you didn't come in contact with Jimmy saval..if you did then it explains your behaviour pattern..you man man.get some help immediately."

Seriously, you're going to drag the board down to this level?

I post some basic, well-publicised information about the company's predicament, point out some of the daily uninformed ramping that is going on here, and this is all you can come up with?

Is there anyone serious here, with some factual non-miraculous basis for why this share is going to take off soon?

An example of the shameless ramping:

Adam2911: "told you few weeks ago cavalley deal sorted ..nice and hot here and soundenergy is 🔥 hotting up soundboy"

The deal isn't sorted. Though everyone expects it to be sometime. If you keep announcing every week that the deal is sorted then one of these weeks it will be. So what exactly has been added by the following from the same poster:

9-Feb: "Set your watch for 7am rns next week"

8-Feb: "remember soundboy told you all a few weeks back."

8-Feb: "Hopefully party time in the sun after the presentation."

7-Feb: "2 weeks I told you all cavrlly is a done deal..announcement is imminent now..soundboy knows nothing lol .lol."

6-Feb: "soon we will be producing and selling gas.whats that worth 4-6p a share.then the wild cards. I.e tendara ..sidi.etc ... what price then 15-25p.."

6-Feb: "Can drop any day now before 15th Feb...chances are very high."

5-Feb: "Clue is in the opening phase... soundenergy is pleased to. Cavalley deal is done and dusted.why say pleased to"

4-Feb: "Could this be the week ..we wait ."

29-Jan: "My crystal ball tells me cavalley deal is sooooon ..sound boy.always right."

28-Jan: "Exciting week coming up.hold on to your hats"

27-Jan: "Big news coming soon"

26-Jan: "News is getting closer....tic toc tic toc"

26-Jan: "watch for the rns dropping next week...cavalley deal done.dont say I didn't tell you."

25-Jan: "a little bird tells me cavalley deal soon to be announced...SOUNDBOY.legend in soundenergy.."

25-Jan: "Investors taking position before the inevitable news.cpuld fall next week..leaky leaky.."

24-Jan: "Something happening o the back ground"

21-Jan: "This is the week.transformation week.."

18-Jan: "Any time the big rns will drop.producing by April.. all looking good."

13-Jan: "Should have some sort of action before end of January.. could even start this coming week..SOUNDBOY"

11-Jan: "Why haven't cavalley walked away yet..think about it.only a few more weeks and it's boooom time"

8-Jan: "soundenergy is going to be grey successful. It will all start within 3 weeks"

6-Jan: "REMEMBER within 3 weeks there will be news.see I have done my research."

5-Jan: "Buy buy buy..something big happenning within next 3 weeks......soundboy."

2-Jan: "Phase one coming on nicely.cavalley about to sign.bank loan awaiting go ahead...soundenergy about to explode upwards"

14-Dec: "i am hoping after the reply that I could possibly come back on the 21st Dec.to good news."

14-Dec: "back in uk 21st Dec.. with cavalley in the bag."

13-Dec: "few big buys have gone in quitely over the last few days.some sort of leak has slipped out."

4-Dec: "Cavalley will dign soooon.you heard it here first..game on."

1-Dec: "I have had a response to my email..Reading in between the lines.very bullish.watch this space....soundboy."

23-Nov: "Soundenergy ready to take off.fasten your seat belts....soundboy"

And on, and on, and on, and on it goes. Boring uninformed drivel.

Typo: "I told us" = "It told us".

I fail to understand all the excitement about the investor presentation. I told us nothing we didn't know in June last year other than that the project has slipped another year behind schedule.

The signing of the deal just means SOU hasn't gone bust. They will still be strapped for cash until at least 2028, and they have said nothing about how they are going to deal with a debt cliff in 2027.

They have no money for drilling, nor will they in the next several years, and their attempt to find a farm-in partner for a three well program was an abject failure. Calvalley are only funding TE-4 and have shown no interest in wildcat prospects like M5 which would only be the second well ever drilled on a 9,000 sq km area. In any event, SOU would still have to come up with their 35% of any drilling costs.

Sure, it's conceivable that Calvalley could strike a future deal on further exploration with a 100% carry for SOU but that's not part of the current negotiations and I imagine they have their hands full as it is. TE-4 is the only well that could be developed and tied back to the Tendrara production facility in a reasonable timeframe (i.e. the next two or three years). That's why it's already included in the SP Angel reckoning and the value add is fairly minimal.

So everything is still as we understood it last June, except miles further behind with consequent additional costs and deferral of revenue. All the ramping on here in the last couple of days has absolutely zero behind it. People have lost the plot just because Graham has finally broken the deafening silence.

"For those who remember, is it a requirement to drill in anoual in 2024?"

It was a requirement to drill it by 8-Jan-2024. The RNS you want to look at, covering the permits for Tendrara, Anoual, and Sidi Moktar, is the one dated 22-Dec-2022. I'm not aware of any updates since. However, it's not unusual for extensions to be announced by ONHYM on permit periods that have already expired.

At the time of that RNS, the situation was:

* Tendrara entered first complimentary period to 1-Oct-2024. Work commitment was the drilling of one exploration well in the TAGI, presumably the plan is for this to be TE-4 (the other prospect being SBK-1). SOU had to relinquish 40% of the Tendrara acreage on entry into the first complimentary period.

* Anoual, initial period extended to 8-Jan-2024. Work commitment was the drilling of one well in the TAGI. The identified prospect is M5. The complimentary period to follow the initial period is only a year, so I am guessing if SOU don't get their act together this year they risk losing Anoual. If a drilled well looks commercial, SOU then have to acquire a bunch of seismic within the complimentary period.

* Sidi, inital period was extended to 9-Oct-2023, which has obviously expired too. The work commitment was to acquire 500 km of 2D seismic.

SOU is a long way behind on all these commitments, and only TE-4 has managed to get funded. Barring extensions, Anoual and Sidi permits have already expired, but I suspect that ONHYM will offer further extensions if SOU can demonstrate a viable partner.

Thanks for the link. Just watched it. That was horrible. One thing we NEVER get from Graham is any adequate explanation for the ongoing delays. It's 100% clear that first gas in 2024 is now an aspiration, not a guarantee. Let's not forget that this time last year, first gas was still being promised for 2023! In the space of a year, we've lost another year. This is absolutely par for the course for SOU. In fact, if we go back to the very start of the LNG project it was (amazingly) supposed to be first gas in 2021.

There may be very good reasons for all of this, I'm sure life is complicated and everyone's working very hard. The fact of the matter is SOU *never* delivers on a deadline and there is no earthly reason to suppose they will now. So it'll be first gas in 2025, not 2024. And even then it will take time to ramp up to full revenue, as Graham alluded to with the Afriquia side of the equation.

The finance overview did not paint a full picture. Graham's insistence that SOU was not going bust was not totally convincing. First, if the Calvalley deal does not complete, SOU is most definitely brown bread. Cash of $4m at end of August cannot have that much left of it. Graham alluded to paring back G&A to 0.25m/month but there is no way these are the only costs that are not funded out of the project debt facility. My guess is SOU are running on fumes to get the various deals over the line.

That's not the biggest problem. The senior secured notes due in Dec 2027 of $27 omits the fact that 5% annual interest is being rolled up since the last restructuring in 2023. Prior to that, 3% has been deferred since the first restructuring in 2021. The actual amount due will be more like $35m. I suggested before that SOU will not be able to pay this. It now looks like they won't even be able to pay half of it.

With G&A costs of $3m/year, that alone will eat up most of the Calvalley Phase 1 back money between now and 2027. The absolutely best possible case for SOU is $7.6m of Phase 1 revenue for the years 2025-27. (That's their share after the SLB cut, as confirmed by Graham). That could be as low as $5.6m at the bottom end of the gas price range. I absolutely don't believe they will get a full year's revenue in 2025. It's also not clear what pot the ItalFluid "go live" payment comes out of. In any case, I reckon SOU will have somewhere between $10m and (best case) $23m to pay their bondholder debt of $35m. That is a serious shortfall. Phase 2 won't save them either as I would say even 2028 is very, very optimistic for revenue from that source.

Graham says that the bondholders have been "very cooperative (most but not all of them)". I can see them running out of patience in 2027. Indeed, just when SOU's prospects are starting to turn around for the first time in a decade sounds like an excellent time for an abused bondholder to pounce. Bottom line is this uncertainty is going to plague SOU for the next four years.

What does "plant available this year" mean?

Ericnat, are you referring to TE-4? The research note only adds 0.3p to the core NAV price for TE-4, and 1p on success. The RNS of 9-Aug-2022 (in which SOU is looking for a farmout partner) notes that TE-4 did not flow gas to surface when it was drilled in 2006 without stimulation. It puts the chance of success at 36%, so not exactly guaranteed.

Genuine question for those hoping for an RNS confirming the Calvalley deal ... what do you think happens next? All of the potential good news is already baked into the SP Angel target price. Anything more depends on new drilling. SOU hasn't found a farmout partner for a well in the past five years, and won't have the money to fund drilling itself for the next five. So then the question is do we leap to the SP Angel target instantly? Seems unlikely as there are still big questions such as whether SOU can now raise the money to repay its bondholders on time.

There's a lot of unusual things about ktf's investment. As the share price fell through 30p, 20p, 10p, five years ago, he kept on predicting that he had no intention of selling at the current price. And yet, a couple of months ago he claimed he was in profit at a share price of 1.1p. That's one hell of an averaging down. He must either have tens of millions of shares (which he doesn't, because he says he's not bothered about the prospect of SOU going bust) or he never held more than tuppence ha'penny worth back in the day. Which is also weird because his MO has always been snarling attacks on anyone who dares to diss the company. Was just browsing his old posts and after the TE-10 duster when JP was mooting a sale of the company, he was confidently stating that £30 BILLION would be too low a price for any offer. The guy is either a delusional crackpot or a paid shill.

Ericnat: "No that was a real post of yours. Have a look back."

My humble apologies ericnat, you are absolutely right! (To be honest, it looked too eloquent/humorous for me, thought you had made it up). Good god. I knew I'd been naive, but that one takes the biscuit. Checked my records, and had already ploughed £450k into SOU at the point. The conventional wisdom on the board at the time (Q1 2019) was that the share price was "underpinned" at 27p. (In retrospect there was never any wisdom here, just a lot of wannabe O&G experts who failed to spot the obvious -- that a broke company can't afford to get their assets out of the ground. Many STILL haven't figured it out). I would go on to spend another £150k averaging down further from 20p to 15p before finally seeing the writing on the wall. Wow, what an idiot! 😳🤪🤡

keepingitfiction: "I think we all know a few of the players of past in different guises whether it’s PS from Wales ..."

LOL. Was that bit of amateur sleuthing based on me not being from the same country as trellis? Sorry to disappoint but, uh ... no.

Good one Eric 😁😁😁

And while it's fabricated, it's probably not that wide of the mark. You don't understand the bellyachers until you become one yourself. 😳

John121983: "I took a screenshot of ps200306 comment ... "

Good for you. Remember that great quote from 'Taken' ? ...

"If you are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don't have money. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you."

I have a particular set of skills too. :-)

Ones that give me access to a searchable database of the last 5 years worth of comments on this board.

I thought you might enjoy this one from a year ago:

keeptofacts, 09-Feb-2023, price: 2.05, "RE: 2p or not 2p"

"as soon as people realise it's not dropping back it will jump to 2.3 or so I think"

Or how about these sad/uncomfortable/tragic posts from all of three years ago:

sreadman, 12-Feb-2021, price: 1.47, "RE: Long Term Holder"

"I invested 100k and have an average of 30p so I have a long way to go to get my money back......"

Tincan1995, 12-Feb-2021, price: 1.25, "RE: Long Term Holder"

"Sreadman you are not alone , but let's hope we see it back at least over time or I may turn green !!"

davefrench, 12-Feb-2021, price: 1.25, "RE: Long Term Holder"

"yes sreadman, I have the same average as you (30p). Long wait indeed if ever. The sensible thing would have been to average down, but when you are sat with a heavy loss, it is hard to commit even more money to a weakened company. Still hope though"

It gets more delusional the further back you go. From this day five years ago:

ericnat17, 12-Feb-2019, price: 22.16, "RE: Drip Drip"

"Hi Crude I have made a couple of mistimed top ups recently. Hopefully anyone buying below 60p will be rewarded in the not too distant future. I am looking forward to the LE party. I am more sure than ever that JP has been working very hard in the background to provide the best shareholder value possible."

Shaungreen47, 12-Feb-2019, price: 22.16, "RE: News"

"The Echo version of the SOU FSC chat is on Thursday. JP is bound to be in attendance. As I have been saying since he started to feather his other nests, I would much rather he concentrated on ensuring his first Company fledged successfully first. I am sure he has spent most of today replying to angry Echo investors emails in much the same way he did with SOU investors during those dark days. I can't help thinking that he got too big for his boots way too quickly and is learning his lessons the hard way at the moment. His reputation is very much on the line ..... let us hope recovers it very soon with the imminent TE10 RNS."

Kinda brings home the ride we've all been taken on ... when you realise the SP Angel target price of 4.6p is a six-bagger from where we are now.

StM, nope not trellis either. I don't even live in the same country! ;-)

I'm afraid I'm nobody but myself. My negativity is all my own. :-)

Totl, iirc, I mentioned cult-like behaviour before Kylie latched onto that term. Much as it would be a nice conspiracy story for me to be Kylie, that's cult-like thinking too. I have no idea who Kylie is, I am not trying to depress the share price so I can get in and make a kill (LOL), I make no secret that I have already lost 90+% of my investment here and have no future plans to touch this pile of poo (or any other AIM share) at ANY price. I just continue to be fascinated by the enthusiasm here about how SOU is "just about to come good any day now" when -- even if that happens eventually -- it will be years away and probably not to the benefit of existing SHs. And you don't have to be a clairvoyant tea-leaf reader to see it in the readily available existing numbers.

As much as the deal could not fall through without that being RNS'd, it can't have gone through without an RNS either. I don't think Graham would be stupid enough to organise an investor event in anticipation of it completing on a particular date. Therefore, the only conclusion is that he *IS* stupid enough to organise an investor event in the absence of anything new at all. In fairness, what else can he do after six weeks of being AWOL in 2024 and not a single item from the October update note achieved?

So I expect we will see Graham with the usual shifty, uncomfortable, constipated expression, and more platitudes about how "everyone at Sound is working extremely hard and we expect to be able to update the market in Q1. Blah blah blah 5km of production tubing on site, other stuff on a slow boat from Louisiana".

What you definitely won't hear is that Phase 1 production revenue is now unlikely before 2025, that the $2.5m/month is now less than $1.2m to SOU, that the profit element is much lower than that, that ItalFluid are due the first many months of revenue upon completion, and that SOU don't have a chance of meeting the 2027 bondholder repayment from Phase 1 revenues. That particular sword of Damocles is enough to keep the share price scraping along the bottom for years (apart from a couple of temporary blips due to some cult members here failing to ever read the actual information).

How quickly people forget. Phase 1 construction is being funded out of the Afriquia Gaz loan. SOU can't use that for day-to-day costs. So yes, it's quite possible to pay for equipment while still being broke. What "some posters on here would have you believe" is just the company news that you've forgotten or chosen to ignore.