Scientists have found a hitherto unknown species of therapod dinosaur in Greensand / Wealden strata in the Isle of Wight. Vectaerovenator inopinatus lived in the Cretaceous and was buried in ocean sands of that period. Let's hope that if PVR find anything "inopinatus" (unexpected) down there, it's scads more oil than expected.
You just seem to be very loose with your numbers and timing. You said "if sound are positioned for first gas then the SP would rocket into double figures with ease". But after the latest 20% giveaway, Sound's entire share of the TE-5 horst with *NO* further dilution is barely worth double digits, even if it found the money to develop it (AFTER finding the money to pay its debts). You said the "board have enough funds to take us well into next year".... but they don't. And you said we have a "multi trillion cu ft asset" when, in fact, our share of discovered resources is 0.17 Tcf.
The bottom line is that we currently have no clear route to get to first gas, but even if we successfully negotiate that torturous path we will then need exploration and significant further discoveries to establish any sort of decent value. You would need multiple years of everything going right for SOU, against a history of everything going wrong. That is why the share price is where it is, and why it is not going to rocket to double digits this side of 2022 nor probably for several years after that.
ST123: "ps get over yourself. None of us know for sure the exact outcome but it is my belief that and as I’ve said previously that we are more likely to succeed than fail."
Sure, Ill shut up now. You've pretty much confirmed that your belief is not backed up by any reasonable argument. It doesn't give you pause for thought that you yourself are down 50% through believing something the market doesn't. You believe the CEO (who just gave away another 20% of your equity) will pay for everything out of income before it exists.
ST123: "If Graham believes that it’s possible to eventually pay the bond from the income then who are we to question it."
You surely can't be this gullible. We KNOW that the bond comes due before any possibility of first income. We KNOW that if Graham had already renegotiated the bond it would be a material fact that has to be disclosed to the market via RNS. It hasn't, so he didn't. Therefore, what Graham believes is just that -- a belief. Who are we to question it? We're the people that listened to all the things the *previous* CEO said he believed ... to our cost.
I've no problem with optimism. I've no problem with giving the new CEO a fair crack of the whip. What choice do we have anyway? I've even no problem with positive statements from the CEO. That's his job. But your claims that we are highly likely to succeed purely on the basis of those statements flies in the face of the facts -- nothing is conclusively agreed, we are in dire financial straits, and we've just given away 20% of the company for a pittance.
ST123: **I will continue to look at the positive actions of the present board who I have every faith in delivering sound to a much better place so I must therefore restate the mantra “in Graham we trust”**
Would you care to enumerate the positive actions, ST123, or did you really mean "positive utterances"? In Graham's recent video appearances he has said that the following are the crucial things to haul SOU off the rocks -- sort out the bond, raise the finance for LNG and find a contractor to deliver it, complete a gas sales agreement.
So far there is a heads of terms agreement to sell a fraction of the Horst capacity, along with a loan on onerous terms that is insufficient for the funding required, a 20% dilution for shareholders to keep the lights on, and a lengthy exclusivity period similar to last year's which fizzled out. Are those the actions you were thinking of?
There's a few alternative *facts* in there too, ST123. We would have had funds to March next year if the PI offering had been fully subscribed. It wasn't, but even if it was, March is a long way short of end of 2021 which is the earliest possible first LNG revenue -- and sounds optimistic at that. We don't have a multi trillion c ft asset. We have 47% (currently) x 0.377 Tcf = 0.177 Tcf of a 2C resource. Regardless of what it's worth, why would the bondholders accept restructuring if they could have the whole company themselves ... or at least extract their pound of flesh with additional onerous terms. Meanwhile we've given away 20% just to keep the lights on to the end of *this* year. Even if we make it to first gas, shareholders may have been diluted out of existence. Not saying it will happen, just that there is a flip side to your unbridled optimism.
ranger4, I do think the Greens will dig their heels in. But legally there isn't a whole lot they can do to scupper this. Ryan can tell his colleagues that the train left the station before he took office. What might be more problematic is if this tottery government falls after a few months. Ryan could be left as caretaker minister for a considerable period, and not pushed about signing any paperwork.
Our illustrious new CEO has done pretty well so far. I wonder could he pull even more irons out of the fire and revive the OPL-1 deal with PSE / Petronas. Can't see what they would have to lose as they don't seem to have any plans of their own in train, and it would increase the chances of PVR reusing the existing gas infrastructure which otherwise has to be decommissioned. The stumbling block could be the regulatory end -- would a revived deal come under the heading of new exploration, which has been banned? Presumably not, as OPL-1 is an existing petroleum lease.
I've been trying to figure out what happened to OPL-1 which contains an extension of Barryroe including much of the east and south panels. PVR had a three year option from 2015 to acquire a 60% stake by drilling a well there. The 2018 annual report has a tiny one liner: "OPL1 Option, North Celtic Sea: The option was not exercised". There is no mention in the 2019 report. So I assume the option is lost. Which means the planned well on the K site will only appraise the volumes in SEL 1/11. Pity.
lmao. Manyana, I've realised you keep misquoting me because you're reading my posts off your spittle encrusted screen through a red mist. No, I didn't "try and be clever by posting what Python is used for by all sorts of bodies to do statistical analysis thinking you were smart". Could you even *spell* "H-band spectral analysis"? Here's the output of a neural net calculating temperature, surface gravity, and nitrogen, carbon, iron, and alpha metal abundances for 146,000 stars. https://i.imgur.com/RCx8Kq0.png
Something more down to earth that you might be able to better understand? Asking prices for Irish property as of last Saturday -- https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter . Rental prices in Dublin -- https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ .
All done in Python by *me*. Now please, PLEASE stop spamming the board with your kiddie Python like a 2-year-old showing off their latest poo.
Many thanks DelBoi, I think you are absolutely right. Since I asked the question I came across this 2017 presentation on PVR's website which you may well have seen but is news to me. I only wish I had audio or slide notes to go with it. It will probably make more sense to you than to me, but I get the gist. https://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/Prospects2Go_BROE_FINAL_for%20website%20-%20small%20file%20size.pdf
It's got everything -- gravimetrics, reprocessed 3D seismic, drilling logs and cores from the 2012 48/24-10z well, etc. It seems the K site was under strong consideration at least three years ago, which begs the question why TO'R didn't even apply for a survey permit. Looks like they would be able to kill several birds with the one stone from this location for drilling costs of c. $25m. From a single well they would prove up 279 mmbo in the east panel, and sidetrack 1.5 km to the south to prove up 184 mmbo in the north central panel (oil-in-place, mid-case numbers). The total would be 162 mmbo recoverable at 35% recovery factor. Plus they would get to test the underlying Jurassic. There seems an awful lot to like with this concept.