RE: 2016 purchase13 May 2025 02:47
"Should be 4p now."
That's the total core + upside NAV figure in Zeus's latest note alright. Can't see it being achieved without a lot more concrete progress though. Graham's "sooner rather than later" has not been cutting it for a long time. We need Managem to make some announcements.
Even then I'd expect it to be a long slow climb. The share price has been under 1.5p for most of the last five years (< 1.5p on 69% of trading days, < 2p on 90%). Total volume traded has been 6 billion shares, three times the total register. Basically, an awful lot of people are holding shares they bought at less than Zeus's current target. To be sure, lots of them were averaging down from much higher prices. But I'm sure there are lots more who will be happy to exit at less than Zeus's target.
Last years loan note holder, for instance, exchanged £2.25m of their £2.5m principal for 100 million shares at 2.25p. But then (through the extraordinary benevolence of the deal for them) they were able to exchange interest payments for ANOTHER 130 million shares at 1p. And since in the end they also received £762,500 in principal and interest repayments, by one reckoning you could say their final net total outlay was only £1.74m for which they received 230m shares -- 11% of the company -- at an average of 0.79p. I'm sure they'd like to get more than 2.25p per share. But they have the leeway to take much less and still get out whole.
What I'm saying, in short, is that there are hundreds of millions of shares out there in the hands of people that might be anxious to get out "sooner rather than later". Ultimately (in the case of a liquidity event) the company will be valued on cash flows and not what today's nervous investors will shell out. But there could be an awful lot of drag on share price appreciation between now and then. It's gonna take time, and possibly lots of it.
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