Member Info for ps200306

Been sitting on the sidelines saying nothing because there's not a whole lot to say. Watching in bemusement as the trolls rave on about meaningless 7% changes in the SP -- that's a twentieth of a penny 🤣. There's only one or two things going to make any difference. It's not H2 (not happening within five years and probably never), it's not Sidi (nobody stepping up with even a couple of hundred grand for seismic, I reckon we'll lose that license), and it's not solar (does anyone even have any idea what SOU is selling here?). Nope, it's phase 2 FID and maybe drilling. I don't buy the idea that Managem are stalling to starve SOU out. Phase 2 revenue is $100m/year. Nobody sits on their hands and intentionally lets that slide. Our problem is lack of news flow. Managem have no responsibility to SOU shareholders to release any info and their website doesn't even mention Moroccan gas. We're totally reliant on GL to funnel information back to us and he's doing bogger all. He needs to do more than dust off the same investor presentation we've all seen a dozen times. Concrete news on SBK-1 and Phase 2 are literally the only things that make any difference -- anything else is a waste of oxygen.

Adam: "If production ramps successfully and revenues start flowing in, investor sentiment and analyst optimism could translate into higher valuations. Achieving meaningful cash flow and delivering on growth expectations could support a move toward the 2.8 GBX price target, assuming broader market conditions remain favorable."

You needed ChatGPT to tell you that??? 🤡🤡🤡Your tea lady could probably recite the same truism less pompously. 🫖🫖🫖

Timeline Summary.

~1966–1985 TE‑1 to TE‑3 wells drilled by AGIP/ONAREP, minor shows only

1999 SRM surveys conducted over Talsinnt; SBK identified

Mid‑2000 SBK‑1 drilled, TAGI interval tested successfully

Late‑2000 Public announcement of discovery; estimated prospect size 50–100 MMboe

Early 2000s Follow‑up appraisal and mapping work; broader interest grows

In summary, SBK‑1 is a landmark discovery in eastern Morocco: a gas-bearing well in the once-underexplored High Plateaux basin, making proven the TAGI reservoir’s potential and putting SRM-based methods on the map locally. Its success helped catalyze further exploration efforts in the region, influencing both national policy and foreign investment in Morocco’s onshore energy sector.

Cheese un' rice, as Sundance would say. Adam, you are the worst troll I have ever encountered on a message board. Now you've taken to posting meaningless drivel from ChatGPT. Here's a suggestion, why not talk to ChatGPT on your own for companionship. It will appreciate you more than anyone here, that's for sure. And if you HAVE to use AI, at least ask it the right questions. ChatGPT knows plenty about SBK-1 if you give it the right context.

The SBK‑1 appraisal well — located in the eastern Talsinnt (High Plateaux) basin of northeastern Morocco — marked an important moment in local hydrocarbon exploration. Here’s a summarized history:

* SBK‑1 (also called the Sidi Belkacem Prospect) was drilled around mid‑2000 by Lone Star Energy (a Moroccan affiliate of Skidmore Energy) targeting the Triassic TAGI reservoir—a proven prolific play in Algeria.

* The drilling resulted from Sedimentary Residual Magnetics (SRM) surveys, which highlighted Magnetic Bright Spot anomalies as hydrocarbon indicators. It was one of several high-graded leads in the area.

* SBK‑1 encountered reservoir intervals in the TAGI between approximately 3,425–3,505 m (around 11,235–11,490 ft). Drill stem testing (DST) yielded production of around 2.5 million MMcfd at high pressure (~7,175 psi), along with traces of light oil.

* Some reports cited peak flow rates reaching 5.5 MMcfd during extended testing and modeling efforts.

* Based on seismic and well analysis, the estimated prospective recoverable resources for the prospect were in the 50–100 MMboe range, with other studies estimating about 65 MMboe.

* In addition to the Triassic reservoir, SBK‑1 showed oil and gas shows in secondary targets such as Jurassic dolomites and fractured Triassic basalts (approximately 38–39° API light oil).

* SBK‑1 ultimately validated the petroleum system in this under-explored region, confirming both Triassic and Jurassic play potential.

* Prior to SBK‑1, Morocco’s onshore drilling had been relatively limited. Earlier wells in the region—like the TE‑1 to TE‑3 drilled by AGIP and ONAREP during the 1960s–80s—had only minor gas shows and were plugged and abandoned.

* SBK‑1 became the first commercially promising gas discovery in the High Plateaux basin, providing impetus for renewed investment and exploratory interest in the region.

Why SBK‑1 Matters.

1. Proof of concept: By proving the TAGI reservoir could be productive in Morocco, SBK‑1 de‑risked exploration across similar basins in the northeast.

2. Technology showcase: It was among It was among the first wells in Morocco guided by SRM technology, demonstrating how magnetic‑based prospecting could drive efficient exploration.

3. Strategic shift: After this discovery, international and national firms—including Sound Energy and national oil company ONHYM—expanded hydrocarbon exploration programmes with more urgency.

Adam: "Ps200306... In all fairness you're a wolf in sheep clothing. ..you post a bit common sense.but your real agenda smells that of a neg.head towards Graham and the company."

Adam, you have no clue. I am VERY heavily invested here, so your comment makes no sense. You need to get off your "cult of Graham" high horse and reconnect with reality. My posts are based on facts on the ground. Did your hero Graham ever make a big news splash about how he gave away 10-15% of the company for around $700k in 2023? Or did he hide it as a footnote in an RNS in June of that year? Are you even aware of that loan note disaster? Do you have any clue how we are going to avoid a repeat performance (or several) over the next 3 years while waiting for Phase 2 revenue? The name of the game is creeping dilution. It's a massive threat to shareholder value going forward. I'd like to see a projection for outgoings vs. revenue because I don't see how it adds up. For just one small example, your hero already told you how there's no money to run seismic on Sidi (again as a footnote on the AR). What I DON'T need is any more glossy investor presentations about how many fingers SOU has in how many non-revenue-generating pies. Show me your own figures for how this is all going to work and I'll join you as a Graham groupie. Otherwise, untwist yer panties and drop your inane witterings about how positivity can change cold hard reality. I am extremely positive about the value of SOU's assets. I'm a lot less certain how much of that will be realised by existing shareholders. Prove me wrong. Sensible investors will continue to hold Graham's feet to the flames on this issue. And so far his responses are a politician-like litany of vagueness.

What has any of that got to do with you incessantly spamming the board with your irrelevant fantasies?

Withoutt: "@pescado ... Pray tell me what big news has been released today/tonight."

Pescado (aka Bunnyman) and his mate Adam have got a screw loose. They spam this board incessantly for their own narcissistic titillation. Any sensible poster has them both filtered.

Did it deal with the bread and butter issue of how SOU sustains itself until Phase 2 completion and start of revenue? I don't believe Phase 1 on its own is enough and I share the skepticism about solar. Nobody dishes out loans to penniless companies allowing them to take profits for no up front money. It doesn't pass any sort of smell test. SOU may survive but the funding question is what will determine whether any value is kept for existing shareholders or whether they get diluted out of existence.

But hey, the Telegraph said we were leading the world in hydrogen exploration, so 10p here we come 😏

My bad, there's a form at the bottom of the screen to become a ShareSoc member and register for the event. You have to provide your name and postal address and presumably get spammed forever with stuff you never wanted. Thanks but no thanks.

Unless I'm missing it there's no information on how to actually watch the presentation at https://www.sharesoc.org/events/discovery-company-webinar230725/

Maybe limited to members only?

I refuse to get excited about this, but for anyone wanting some weekend reading:

New paper in Nature Reviews (Earth and Environment) from last month ... Ballentine et al. "Natural hydrogen resource accumulation in the continental crust". (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-025-00670-1)

Get it while it's hot! ... for some reason it's available unpaywalled at: https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1k2hcjn-Nature%20Review%20Hydrogen%20May%202025.pdf

A review video from Sabine here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_mtuLSRz-A

And getech have a new press release just yesterday on their new JV with SOU, HyMaroc Limited ... https://getech.com/news/formation-of-moroccan-hydrogen-and-helium-exploration-joint-venture-to-follow-up-on-successful-screening-study/

Reads like a SOU press release / puff piece.

Fernan, belated thanks for the calculations. I'd still like to see SOU confirm your assumptions, but if they are correct I can't fault your arithmetic. Then it all comes down to how the shortfall will be financed.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDE6Dj1WeKo

It wasn't mentioned.

Just a parting thought on gas production. Have a google of "Tendrara peak" and you will find various old industry articles on the prospects. The projected peak production rates are not 30 mmscf/d but 66 mmscf. TE-6 and TE-7 alone produced peak rates of 50 mmscf/d between them during post-stimulation testing. (I'm not suggesting that would be the continuous rate, production rates have to be optimised for maximum value). Numerous additional wells would of course be needed to maintain production over the field's productive lifetime. The production curve would ramp up for several years after first gas, then plateau for about a decade before tailing off to become uneconomic after a total of 30 years. Confirms what I suspected -- the majority of the economic value would be extracted over perhaps fifteen years. It also means the revenue to SOU would rise to more than double Fernan's estimate earlier, with consequent more rapid pay down of debt and overall lower costs. And remember, this is without SBK-1 and TE-4. I'm still satisfied that if SOU can navigate the short term debt hurdles without giving away the farm, they are on to a tidy earner. Happy enough to sit on my 1% share even if kylie thinks it's fictional. 🤣🤣🤣

Some interesting stuff there (not all good or bad). A couple of things from my scribbled notes...

* Graham's remuneration: I thought this was covered fairly graciously. As I said before, despite SOU's checkered performance under Graham's leadership they were dead in the water before he arrived. As I also said, he's been earning about the same amount that I did as a software developer. Nothing to see here, basically.

* Guarantees on drilling: to me this was possibly the biggest heretofore unmentioned fact (unless I missed it previously). Under the SPA, Managem are committed to deadlines on the drilling component. If they don't meet those deadlines SOU are entitled to the cash equivalent of the drilling costs. That's major! (and the antidote to the conspiracy theories about Managem dragging their feet to squeeze SOU out of existence). There aren't similar guarantees on the Phase 2 development but it's reasonable to assume that Managem themselves would be anxious to progress that.

* Foreclosure by bondholders: was gratified to see Graham read my entire question out verbatim. So it turns out that the bond is not securitised on the Tendrara assets per se, but on the share capital of SEMS Ltd. I was satisfied that foreclosure is a more unlikely event than it seemed to me recently.

* Sidi: still looking for a farm out partner, as ever. I was encouraged though by the implication that the farm out (however unlikely) would be sought BEFORE spending money on new seismic. If I have it right, SOU won't crucify itself trying to raise money with massive dilution.

* Phase 1: moderately encouraging noises that deadlines can be met and ramp-up to full production will not take forever.

Phase 2: depressingly little news, except that the FEED was mentioned as something still to be done. (Why isn't it ongoing?!!)

* Hydrogen, solar: meh! Somebody rightly asked what SOU brings to the solar opportunity. It's neither their area of expertise nor do they have money to enter as an investor. Basically it sounds like an investment venture using borrowed money. No objections if they think they can turn a quick profit. Interested by the notion of "tradeable grid capacity". As far hydrogen, even JA had to admit it was an "emerging science". He didn't mention that there's exactly one commercial operation in existence on the entire planet! This stuff is for the birds. Can only hope they don't waste too much cash on it.

"I agree that production numbers seem low for the amount of the 2C resource. But that what SOU informed to the market. As soon as SOU change its production forecast, I will change my numbers."

SOU hasn't informed the market what the eventual peak rate of production will be because I doubt anyone can know that. Peak rates depend on field characteristics that only become apparent as it is developed -- do a google for production curve analysis. But the idea that production follows a curve that increases to maturity and then tails off is not a guess, it's a well understood fact of life at the level of individual fields and entire hydrocarbon provinces. People have been talking about it since the 1950s with the famous Hubbert curve etc and well-known work by Campbell, Laherriere et al. Modern stimulation and enhanced recovery techniques can flatten the production curve, bringing it to peak faster. I'm not claiming any sort of expertise here, but I *have* been reading about it casually for 25 years, so I'm not making this up.

SOU can't just make announcements willy-nilly about hypothetical peak production rates. Eventually the Tendrara resource will be recategorised as P1 reserves. Proven reserves aren't just about what's in the ground, but that the technical and market situation exists to support exploitation. You can be pretty certain that the 30 mmscf/day is the targeted initial rate, not some copper-bottomed statement about production capacity for three decades into the future.

Kylie: "I think that's what the clever crew realised a while back."

Until you subject it to the slightest scrutiny and real world analysis. Then it ain't so clever 🤡