Member Info for ps200306

I presume he's crystal ball gazing again. The only thing you need to know about Adam is his hundreds upon hundreds of failed predictions. Not one single correct prognostication EVER among the endless drivel. Just my tuppence worth -- you will never miss a useful post by blocking him, and will save yourself a few brain cells and the temptation to feed the timewasting troll.

I started filtering Adam and Bunnyman a month or two ago and have been much more relaxed since. They've never made a useful contribution to the board so it's not like I'm missing anything.

I'm optimistic about 2025. But I don't think we're going to see any movement in the SP until pipeline construction starts. Maybe an earlier upward blip on Phase 2 FID. And, of course, a gray swan event like M5 coming in would substantially improve things.

But there are also dark gray swans such as SOU frittering away value on useless baubles. That probably contributes to the market's wait-and-see attitude.

Willec reminds me of ShareTrader123. Bought in at 4p on one of the several spike over the past five years (can't remember which particular "news" it was). Claims he averaged down to 3p. Missed several chances to get out at breakeven, such was his conviction that the price was going to soar from there. Castigated everyone who suggested otherwise. Haven't heard from him in quite a long while.

Anyone who suggests nothing can go wrong between now and when the broker target price is reached is a fool. Anyone who insists the market should be doing what they expect is a fool. The market sets the price, not you. It knows more than you do.

If there's one thing Graham did right early in his tenure it was to commission a proper valuation of the company based on assets. SP Angel, and latterly Zeus, have been consistent in valuing core, risked and unrisked NAV, taking debt and dilution into account. Exploration upside has been appropriately segregated in the numbers so that we can distinguish between core and speculative value.

It hasn't quelled some patently silly share price predictions based on punters' "feelz" and the fact that "we've been there before". Those folks simply cannot be persuaded to read and understand the analysis that has been paid for on their behalf. Nor can they comprehend that the once-bitten-twice-shy market will not pay higher valuations until SOU is demonstrably generating cash flow, or at least there is a nailed on guarantee that they will do so. That's what the future SP will be based on and is still some considerable distance away. The "4p-by-Christmas" hype merchants are fooling themselves and doing nobody else any favours. Though I'm sure those bottom feeders who have already taken advantage of their gullibility by exiting at 1.3p with a nice profit thank them for their service.

There's only a handful of commenters whose comments are so content free, so egregiously intended to mislead, and so utterly worthless that there is no danger you will ever miss anything by filtering them that you might wish you'd seen.

Ho ho ho and good will to Adam and Bunny Man, but I'm happy to say I haven't had to read a single one of their posts since filtering them a month ago. Helps maintain the festive spirit. 🤡🎅

MY SUMMARY:

Very little there that we didn't know since the announcement, but there were a few highlights. Managem deal still looks good, provides ongoing finance for SOU to explore new opportunities. Significant revenue for SOU still several years away and there will be a mountain of debt to pay. Broker SP target of 4p (eventually) still the best estimate we have, ignore the rampers and fantasists on here.

PHASE 1:

Good news: LNG storage tank no longer on Phase 1 critical path. Bad news: that's because everything else has slipped. I'm annoyed I let them convince me in recent pronouncements that first revenue would be in H1 when I'd predicted end of year at best. I was right -- commissioning doesn't start until H2.

DRILLING:

Graham couldn't help using those damn phrases "not too distant future" and "sooner rather than later". However, JA explicitly mentioned September as a vague possibility. Sequencing of SBK-1 vs. M5 depends on rig readiness. Star Valley rig on site suitable for M5 but not SBK-1. TE-4 also mentioned as an aspiration. 2D seismic to be run on Sidi "early next year". Five new production wells required for Phase 2.

FINANCIAL:

Loan note paid off -- very welcome news. Phase 1 revenue to SOU $6m pa, $2m-2.25m EBITDA. They forgot to answer on Phase 2. (Broker note says EBITDA £17m, FCF £12m, but also debt of nearly £60m). Managem fully responsible for any remaining Schlumberger interest. Various refinancing options being considered for eurobond. Broker target still 4p/share. Completely mealy-mouthed non-answer given by Graham on director share purchases.

Yep, rampers coming out of the woodwork and talking through their back orifices.

"Anyone that buys in expecting 40p deserves to only make 400% when it gets to 4p."

😁Very droll but well put. When Phase 2 FID is taken, 4p becomes a very realistic and achievable target. If SBK-1 comes in there is more icing on the cake. M5 should be treated as a remote but lucrative possibility. Both together could double or triple the expected NAV. But let's not be greedy. With best efforts and even with no further discoveries, SOU starts generating significant free cash flow in 2028.

For me, 4p gets me back half my losses -- a high six-figure sum. After watching this turkey roasting for so many years, I would be insanely happy with that. The devil may take the rest of the 31 Tcf ... he'll can use it to prepare a nice warm welcome for Parsons. 😈

"it will be 40p by next Xmas if all goes according to plan and major road block clear with 44.5m in hand to explore finance and feed sorted"

We don't have 44.5m "in hand". That includes the carries on two wells. Cash in bank is $13m less whatever had to be repaid on bridging loan, unpaid providers, and sundry extras. It's probably barely enough to pay G&A until Phase 2 revenue arrives. Before then there is the 23m eurobond to pay. 40p would value SOU at about six times the entire value of Phase 2 to SOU over 10 years.

A salutary warning to anyone reading this boards -- almost every prediction trotted out here is from someone who hasn't a scooby how to value the company.

FEED needs to be redone. According to Graham in one of those recent interviews Managem are already working on it. Remains to be seen if Managem can get the finger out quicker than SOU was ever able to. Would be nice to see things picking up pace.

So we did draw down some of the bridging loan, and have repaid it. No mention of redeeming the remainder of last years loan note so I guess we should expect to see some more tens of millions of dilutive shares before that is finally closed off. Perhaps going to spend some of the money on Sidi. Also looking for "accretive" transactions -- Graham is desperate to splash some of the cash on acquisitions 😡. Hope he's remembering that Phase 1 revenue barely covers ongoing debt obligations so SOU will have to finance itself until Phase 2 revenue starts flowing which could be 3+ years away. Hopefully (as he alluded to) Managem will be more efficient in pushing P1 and P2 forward. Not out of the woods yet, but undoubtedly more positive than before. As to when SP will reflect all of this is anybody's guess. Would be good to get SBK-1 going as there's a decent chance of success albeit a small accumulation. Might be the positive impetus that is needed.

Apologies to smudger63 for stealing his predictions post (from June 17th). SP closed yesterday at 1.0p. Looks like the winner is JFC431. Even Kylie was too optimistic 😂.

Smudger63 6.3p

Adam2911 4.5P

Rubber.soul 4p

Soundasapound 2.3P

Keeptofacts 2.0P+

Soobirs 2.0P

davefrench 2p (spike)

ps200306 1.8P (spike)

Tincan1995 1.6P (spike)

ericnat17 1.4 (intraday spike 1.8P)

Kylie75 1.2P

John121983 1.2P (spike)

StMary 1.2P (Spiking 1.4P, twice - close of play)

JFC431 1.1P (at the end of days trading)

Before we get TOO excited (at least those who imagine Attijariwafa will be sorted by Christmas and new wells spudding in Q1) ... let's not forget there's a whole Front End Engineering Design to be redone before the Phase 2 loan can be finalised. Plus, I suspect a ton of planning before any drilling program can proceed. This is not the work of a few weeks. Another thing some here seem to forget ... SOU is, relatively speaking, a mere bystander in all of this. Just as Shlumberger sold their stake in the Tendara acreage to SOU while retaining an interest, SOU are now in the same boat. It's not their acreage anymore, they are just an interested party. Managem calls the shots now.

Hmmm. Let's not forget there's a seller for every buyer. Who is letting go of 30 million shares mostly at sub-1p on the day of the big announcement. Seems strange. Even if they managed to accumulate at 0.6p it's a measly couple of hundred g in profit.

Woohoo. We just went over 1p. Game on for someone to beat Kylie in the prediction stakes.

Attijariwafa will still require the FEED to be redone. Months away at best.

Since it wasn't RNS'd, I wonder can we assume none of that £1.5m contingency loan facility was drawn down. Maybe a question for the investor presentation.

... 1p looks like it could be challenged in the first 15 minutes of trading.

Well, it opened about 23% up so at least going in a positive direction. That's Kylie out of the running for the prediction competition. 😁

Well whaddya know, three days short of the six month mark. I've always said with SOU no news is bad news. Happy to stand corrected on this one (not least because I have a substantial investment here since the Managem announcement -- remains to be seen how that fares). What can one say? Onward and upward!