RE: Sidi14 Oct 2024 05:08
... Sidi (continued from below)
The current dazzling estimates are based on 25-year old low resolution 2D seismic. It's a mere glint in the eye. There's no evidence yet that ANY hydrocarbon accumulations exist let alone that they are recoverable. I am no geologist, but the basics of the Moroccan hydrocarbon basins are not rocket science for the interested layperson. There is a great overview here:
https://geoexpro.com/productive-petroleum-basins-of-morocco/
(A couple of terminology notes: the Argovian is part of the Oxfordian shales that you can see in Figure 2 from the above link. When SOU refer to the "pre-salt" they are talking about the Triassic and Paleozoic below the Triassic Evaporites shown in Figure 2.).
The strata of interest at Sidi are the upper Jurassic ("Argovian"), lower Jurassic ("Liassic"), middle to upper Triassic ("TAGI"), and Paleozoic. There is definitely gas at Sidi as it was flowed from the Koba-1 well, but this was from the shallower Argovian that nobody has declared commercial. The whole structure in whose crest Koba-1 and Kamar-1 were drilled is called the Kechoula deposit. It was discovered in 1957 and has produced a paltry 20 bcf or so. It, in turn, is part of the Essaouira basin. Exploration permits on Essaouira were originally carved up as Sidi Moktar north, south, and west.
The silver-tongued Parsons managed to claim via RNS after SOU's Koba-1 reentry that "the Company hopes to move rapidly to production" followed by not even doing a promised extended well test which is still outstanding seven years later. The same well test was supposed to test the Liassic but that section of the Koba-1 well was damaged so a further well was going to be required.
The big prize is in the TAGI and Paleozoic but these are completely untested nor is there even decent resolution seismic. The presence of gas in nearby Meskala is no indicator of anything. As we've seen in Tendrara, cementation of TAGI sandstones is highly unpredictable. The geologists blame this on "complex diagenesis", which basically means that when the TAGI sandstones were laid down there were all sort of clays and evaporites knocking around that could gum up the works.
Basically, in Morocco you can't count your chickens until you have surveyed, drilled, and extensively tested.
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