Member Info for ps200306

Metoooo: "Adam, how do you know there will be loads of news in August?"

He doesn't. He is a serial fantasist who just makes it up as he goes along. And he's as shameless he is clueless -- never a single acknowledgement of his dozens of weekly failed predictions.

Any news coming out of SOU will be just pre-conditions getting ticked off the list on the way to closing the Managem deal. There are at least ten on the June RNS and the first one -- Managem board approval -- was completed on time in July.

None of it makes a whit of difference. As with the numerous Calvalley announcements, all they mean are that the deal hasn't failed yet. There is only one piece of news that matters, that the ink is drying on the signed Sale and Purchase Agreement.

That's unlikely to be before mid-September and, knowing SOU, probably way later than that. Look at the list of parties involved in addition to SOU and Managem: ONHYM, ONEE, the ministers of energy and finance, the foreign exchange office, Schlumberger. This is not a simple process. The only reason to hope it might not be the usual SOU sh*tshow is because Managem's owners have the wherewithal to pull a lot of strings.

"1.6 million has moved this beauti..could be a leak. £16k is no lose change"

Nice to see you thinking big Adam2911, LOL. I spent more than that myself on SOU in the last few days, and it *was* loose change. Significant moves in SOU in the last couple of years have involved tens of millions of shares changing hands in a day, even 100m plus. This is just "noise". Ask your tea lady.

"Rubbish from a completely twisted individual who has multiple identities on this board and who has 'good cop, bad cop' rants with himself. Completely irrational nonsense which is impossible to fathom for the sane amongst us."

Of course it's impossible to fathom when you're starting from the ridiculous premise that three posters with totally different styles and content are the same person. They have nothing in common except a negative outlook. What kind of scary-ass groupthink and closed-mindedness assumes that all negative views must come from a single source? Is it that the only way to keep the dream in the desert alive is to plug your ears and never look back at how the money has all trickled away into the sands of dilution?

The Anoual drilling requirement has been relaxed. SOU (or rather Managem, the new permit holders) can now enter an extended complementary period without drilling, giving them more time to get their act together.

Check your faulty memory. And then provide a link. I have never posted as anyone but me on this board. Why WOULD I? I've always been completely transparent about what I held, and when I bought and sold it. Do you know anyone else who has posted screenshots of their accounts? There is nobody on here more straight-down-the-line than myself.

As for being "exposed" by Adam2911 the resident ramper ... the guy has imaginary tea lady voices in his head fer crissake. 🤣🤣🤣

Ah, the perennial problem with block people ... you don't get to see what they're saying about you. I thought Adam2911 might be spreading it alright.

Adam2911: "Ps2000 ..is diffinity talking soundenergy down for a cheap entry..let me tell you here and now young man."

You have to be kidding. The SP has been dragging along the bottom for more than three years. You couldn't push it any lower unless you threw it in the Mariana Trench. So now I'm a proud new holder (ok, cancel the "proud" bit). I still think it's a turkey and wouldn't advise anyone else to invest.

Adam2911: "This is the cheapest any one will get in.the only way is up...so don't kid yourself by knocking the positive investors here..."

You reckon? I reckon we're a week away from the announcement of yet another 50 million shares for the convertible note holder. SP could easily drop again.

My, what a suspicious lot! 🤣

It's very straightforward, no skulduggery involved. As I've outlined before, I sold my entire holding (on 15-Mar-2021 when the SP was 1.4p if you want the specifics, taking a loss in the hundreds of thousands) ... with the exception of a chunk in a separate account that was earmarked for someone else. (It's still "my" holding).

I've just now bought a new chunk on my own behalf. If I wanted to talk the SP down there were opportunities over the last few months to get in even lower. I have no interest in talking the SP up or down (if that even made sense on an obscure BB full of assorted loons). I'm having a purely speculative punt at a sub-1p average to maybe recover a tiny fraction of what I've lost, and will be gone like a hot snot at the first sign of an upward blip. I'm making no secret of it, I'm gonna milk this thing for short term gain. I have no interest in waiting several years for the SP to reach "fair value", and don't trust SOU as far as I could kick them (e.g. to suddenly discover that the bondholders own the company, or that somebody has a bazillion warrants that they decide to exercise, or that they pour all their cash into failed drills, or who knows what else. This turkey has had more false dawns than the north pole at equinox). So yeah, I have a purely mercenary self-interest. But it won't stop me commenting dispassionately on whatever news the company puts out over the coming months.

No. I took my licks 3 years ago when I sold out. I've got some other SOU shares held on behalf of a sibling. These ones are new.

Good points made. Adam and Pescado are not even worth refuting -- there is no substance to anything they have ever posted. Not worth the irritation. Blocked.

Just for the record. I am still negative about SOU. But I dived back in today on the drop in SP. My dreams in the desert extend just as far as a shameless quick buck on any spike when the Managem deal completes. Already lost my shirt on this turkey -- looking for a few buttons back.

If you're going to be a shameless ramper you should at least have some clue what's going on ...

Adam2911: "Very positive rns today"

SOU originally had a well commitment on Anoual for no later than the start of 2023. That got extended by a year and then ONHYM relaxed the work program so they can enter the complementary period without any well at all. I wouldn't call this a positive, but a sign of SOU's abject failure. At least with Managem running things there's some prospect that SOU's years of foot dragging can finally be remedied.

Pescado: "The LNG terminal will be connected to an existing pipeline ... "

Uh, what the hell are you smoking? LNG cannot be transported by pipeline and SOU's LNG facility will definitely not be connected to one.

I think it's 400p ... by 3.29pm this afternoon. Prove me wrong.

All aboard the Soundboy train! Powered by nothing but hot air.

Spencer, SOU has a 27.5% interest in Greater Tendrara and Anoual. Any hydrocarbon resources that anyone finds on that acreage, 27.5% of it belongs to SOU. Of course, as we've found out painfully over the last several years, assets in the ground only have a notional value until they are exploited. So there are costs associated with 1) exploration drilling, 2) getting the resources out of the ground. As much as SOU is entitled to 27.5% of any proceeds, it also has to bear 27.5% of all exploration and extraction costs. That could be funded by equity (new shares issued), debt (borrowing the money), or farming down (giving away some of it's 27.5% interest in return for costs being carried by someone else).

The actual value of any discovery -- what you could sell it for today -- depends on the stage of development. The fabled 31 Tcf, for instance, doesn't even count as a resource since it hasn't been discovered. It is a *prospect*, based on sub-surface mapping of structures that may or may not contain recoverable hydrocarbons. (SOU got the exploration permits for nothing, let's not forget). Seismic data may be worth some notional amount ... but not very much.

Once a discovery has been made it becomes a contingent resource. At this stage you have had success with the drill bit, performed sample analysis, mapped the vertical and areal extent of the structure, and confirmed that oil/gas is recoverable to surface. Next you may perform well stimulation -- cleaning, acidisation, explosive or hydraulic fracking, whatever. Finally you perform an extended well test, to test the recovery rate and how the pressure drive evolves over time. At this stage you *still* have contingent resources, but have an idea of the recovery factor and will assign different probabilities to likely ultimately recoverable volumes. This would be the status of the Tendrara concession (those bits of the horste that are about to be exploited and which SOU owns 20% of).

Now there are all sorts of "above ground factors". Does the technology exist to exploit the resource? Is there project financing to pay for it? Is there a buyer and a route to market? Is the project financially viable under current market prices? All of these have to be answered to turn your contingent resources into probable reserves. Again, different probabilities are assigned. Reserves with a 90% likelihood of being exploitable are considered "proven". The notional value of the resource/reserve goes up in proportion to the likelihood. However, only *actual production* brings in cashflow. As SOU has found, not having access to capital to exploit a resource leaves you in a weak position, even if you own a discovery.

Adam2911: "Word is out..buy out.."

A buy out now would be terrible for SOU. Fortunately the prognostications of the board's resident fantasist / compulsive liar can be safely ignored.

I feel for you too, sundance. If it's any consolation, averaging down would have cost you a packet more (as it did me) that you would also never have got back. I got mine down to 15p but was up to my neck for hundreds of k by that stage, almost all of it now written off.

Crude, you make my point for me. "Remember when X happened" (ignoring the fact that it was before we suffered 90% dilution through share issuance and farm down). I cannot see SOU ever achieving 6p again, let alone going from 6p to 67p. Of course, there's no accounting for the AIM lottery and what might happen. But that would require a whole new slew of "greater fools" with generational amnesia. For the next several years there are too many burned investors looking to get out, not in. I don't think the SoundBoys and sundry shameless rampers are going to tip that balance anytime soon.

Punchline got truncated ...

"For some of the rampers on here, they just haven't realised that with time delays and dilution their money is *already gone*"

Tableleg: "Remember the SP last time?"

Rather than bickering about whether share price will soar let's look at where we've come from, which doesn't require anyone to understand "core NAV" and other esoteric details from SP Angel.

There is a direct evolutionary line from the famous statement by Parsons (or one of his sidekicks, can't remember which) that "one tcf to Sound is worth £1.50" on the share price. At the time, SOU held 50% of the Tendrara concession, with 25% for Schlumberger and 25% for ONHYM. We eventually discovered that SOU's 50% meant the £1.50 was actually 75p. There is one third of a tcf recoverable in the TE-5 horste. Now we are at 25p. It is worth bearing in mind that SOU's actual C1 assets in the ground were *never* worth more than that, no matter how silly the SP got.

The 650m shares on issue then has more than tripled and, indeed if the loan note holder continues to convert will be more like 3.5x. At any rate, the 25p has been reduced by dilution to at most 8p. Here you can see the first connection with SP Angel's target SP of 7.6p from last year.

Since then, of course, SOU's share of the Tendrara concession fell to 35% under Calvalley, and 20% under Managem. Since we are comparing it to the 50% held in the Parson's days we need to take 20%/50% = 40%. Multiply by 8p and you have the current target SP of ~3.2p. It's amazing that the forecast holds up all the way from the £1.50/tcf days.

Anyone basing their current forecast on nostalgia for 2017 is wilfully ignoring that the share price back then was overvalued by a factor of 4 compared to actual assets, and has been diluted by a factor of 10 by farming down and by the issuance of shares like confetti over the intervening years. 3p is the new £1.

Excitement over new drilling is understandable, but bear in mind that if M5 was the most roaring success possible (i.e. the whole structure being replete with gas with the same recoverability factor as TE-5) it would only double the assets. SBK-1 is a much smaller affair. M5 would also need a tie in to the pipeline which SOU doesn't have the money for, and would inevitably involve further farming down.

The share price is not going to be 10p or 20p soon, or ever. That is more or less an impossibility. It *WILL* go up from here. The loan note holder are not converting their outlay plus interest into shares for the good of anyone's health but their own. But since they have already made 75% interest and can get shares for under a penny, they only need a 1.5p price to achieve a 3-bagger. At the first sign of a decent rise they will be gone like a hot snot, creating a drag on the price for everyone else. The same goes for anyone else trying to exit stage left at a cheaper price than *you*.

Remember that first scene in The Matrix where Agent Smith tells the over-confident cop: "No sergeant, your men are already dead"? For some of the rampers on here, they just haven't realised that with time delays and dilution their money is a

Uh, you said the train was leaving the station on Monday. You really haven't a clue, do you?

Oh, and I should also mention 1) Managem will own the exploration permits and so will get to decide what gets drilled, 2) the exploration permits don't last forever -- eventually they expire, and that happens in a staged way with certain acreage being released over time. To keep the permit alive the operator has to carry out whatever work program is agreed with ONHYM.

Any actual discoveries get converted into a hydrocarbon lease, i.e. new production concessions can be granted.

Spencer, any further drills in Greater Tendrara and Anoual, SOU keeps a 27.5% interest. However, that means they also have to come up with 27.5% of costs unless they farm down further.

Anything in the existing Tendrara production concession, SOU have a 20% share. That will include new wells that have to be drilled over time to keep the production levels up.