Member Info for Poundcake

“ Professor Bell said the devices, that are 'no larger than a teacup', plug into a socket in the wall and process swabs within an hour.”

Perfect for a quick, cheap, disposable mass test then...

Rusty, I can help... it can be avacta. It just isn’t.

Reasons:

Ignore the BBI partnership
Ignore the Abingdon partnership
Ignore the PM saying the U.K. gov is procuring capacity
Ignore Huff Post saying BIVDA are involved
Ignore the CEO saying they are under NDA and can’t discuss
Ignore the CCD saying the U.K. gov wants a sovereign supply and Avacta is working to supply this
Ignore the NDA question from the Q&A
Ignore the moonshot numbers given by David Wilson

List every other test and ask ‘well it can’t be us, can it...?’

Repeat.

You didn’t listen to David Wilson last week then?

Non. disclosure. Agreement.

Don’t believe an anonymous face on a bb, fair enough - but take the time to listen to David Wilson.

Who explained avacta is working govn on a sovereign test.

The fact a daily mail journo can’t find this info is not a surprise.

If we are looking at Q1 roll out in mass numbers you’d think the contract can be far odd being announced.

Ps - this bb has lit up like an Xmas tree tonight. Anyone would think there is some interest in this avacta company.

As mentioned earlier.

The U.K. govn demand alone is beyond what every covid company in the U.K. can produce... this is why I simply don’t understand why investors in other company feel the need to point out ‘it’s not you, it’s us’...

I don’t see another company as competition - not because you may or may not have a test coming to marketer before avacta but because there is such demand it doesn’t matter.

Anyway, if the commercial director is saying the gov wants a sovereign test and the hold up is procedural rather than product related (combined with CMO calling it ‘concrete’ today) then that is good enough for me.

I guess not then... David Wilson must have been lying about this whole sovereign test, talking to government, test will roll out over next few months...

Wait til I get hold of David! :-)

Has it avacta is in talks with the government...

Apparently the U.K. gov is seeking a sovereign test...

Apparently intention is to test 7-8% of population per day...

Apparently U.K. based covid company are uniquely placed to benefit...

Apparently our commercial director was at a live webinar last week where he confirmed all of the above....

Is it us?

If he is selling rapid testing as the way out, I’d say there will be a remark or two on this at the press conference. How much detail remains to be seen...

Well, well... that is an interesting read.

There is a way out of this.... I think we may get a few more morsels from the high table this evening.

twitter.com/kevin_maguire/status/1322605662824779779?s=21

As for passing tests, I recall an article many months ago about the level of due diligence Ruane put their investments through.

They were happy to pay 120 despite having the company on their radar during the dog days.

This was after months of DD. That’s good enough for me.

I see the press conference now further delayed. No wonder the validation has been troublesome...

Infinity. Yes, without dragging the bb into a gold bb (though it would be more useful than some of the stuff posted :) I largely agree. The constant stream of QE will underpin the price imo. It was more a ‘I’d rather hold gold than a lot of ftse stocks out there which some believe are undervalued.’

As for the cancer therapies, I see that a side show at present but H2 2021 it will get exciting. The affimers are clearly being spoken of in the community. How long big pharma waits on avacta is another story. I’m personally in no rush and see this as your typical story where shareholders do not appreciate the value in the platform avacta are developing. If, and it’s a big if for now, they have the financial firepower to keep a lot of the cancer work in house then it really is game on.

But for now, it’s all about covid. Understandably.

I thought it remarkable just how relaxed David Wilson was at labroots. It was not a man worried about the future, quite the opposite.

It all ties together. Throw in the falcon second stage and shortening of timelines etc plus Cummings now absorbing himself in saliva LFT and David Wilson comments and it feels ‘right’... for what it’s worth the very vocal medical community seem very excited about the developments. I find it hard to believe they would be if failure was coming down the tracks.

I assume Boris will want to see the lateral flow 10k batch before he commits to avacta live on TV but, you have to wonder what a statement of intent will do.

‘We’re not quite there yet but it looks promising’ or words to that effect has caused Avacta to hit £2 in the past.

A little more meat on the bone, or more detail around BIVDA capacity and it’ll enter a new trading range.

Whether that is at 5pm or in 3 weeks I have no idea... but confident it’ll come.

A sovereign test is designed to enable the government to herald this as the free market drawing on British talent. And for that, he will want to deliver it on a national stage.

Thanks, suspect it will get lost and not stimulate much debate though. :-)

The board is back to doing what is does best on the weekends (and most weekdays).

It’ll be interesting to see if Boris finally puts a bit more meat on the bone at 5pm.

Backbenchers are furious. Promised a vote and not getting one.

Feels like it is too soon to give anything out at the press conference which will benefit avacta on Monday but you never know, he has to provide some sort of plan soon...

Either way, it’ll be a blood bath on the markets. Imaging holding CINE, IAG etc at the moment.

For me, - cash, gold or covid stocks is the place to be. Avacta is most definitely top of that list.

Monday’s action will be interesting.

Crack and Medical Supplies

So, why are we still at 160p? Well, simply put those looking for a quick buck have moved on. Without really seeing the long term potential here. It’s a retail led stock (largely uneducated about the stock and first foray into the market due to lockdown) but there is some very sensible money backing it (Ruane).

I am, oddly, no longer worried about the test ‘working’... and perversely I no longer think the test S&S figures will move the dial in the same way it would have a few months.

Move away from the LFT for a moment and you have BAMS (this has been overlooked as a value driver in short term imo). I think it will be the main mover of the SP pre Xmas. We know a global partner is imminent and this one works imo.

We then have all the cancer work.

Put simply, if this pandemic had disappeared by Xmas, avacta would be in a far tougher position. They have been granted time by the second wave and a clear government desire to purchase all they can make. A true sovereign supply will render medusa redundant in the short to mid term.

I see immense value here and for those who take a longer than 3 month view, it’s hard not to get very excited during what is a very testing time (excuse the pun). The challenges have been clear, as per David Wilson, however these for me seem far more process than product driven. We will see how it goes but the risk reward is now incredible. Far better than when I first bought at 90p.

Onto what we know, I found D.Wilson’s talk very interesting. There was not a hint of the test not working. He was oh so relaxed. Rather, all language centred on ‘other’ processes needing to be scaled up to cope. There is a shortage of everything: strips, tubes, plastics etc.

In addition, there was some very interesting talk around capacity. He put it at 5m at present. I think avacta have the majority of that capacity signed up. They clearly want a lot more. Again, it was clear he had a tight leash on from Alastair when he said these will come online ‘over the next few months’ which fits with Q4 validation, Q1 roll out but could not say more.

Another gem was the discussion around funding, as he asked ‘why will industry scale up unless there is a commitment from government?’ He seems to have received that assurance as he went on to discuss preparedness for the next pandemic. So, cast your mind 24 months from now when we just get back to normal. How much investment do you think the government will place in rapid test to ensure this doesn’t happen again? Answer... more than 160p’s worth.

He also name checked the Gates foundation. 500m over 12m demand.

He made clear U.K. gov demand is 100m per month. Moonshot aims for 7-8% population tested every day. He was not pulling these figures out of thin air.

That’s around 4-5m per day.

He also put the figure at 20m per day in the US and made it clear these figures were from the Harvard report (ie not from government). He did not qualify his figures in respect of the U.K. Why? Because they got them from the UK gov.

No wonder he was looking very relaxed when he said ‘we will sell all we can make and they will sell fast’.

The positives:

There is no end in sight to this dreadful pandemic (not a positive but for a testing company this is clearly a positive in a very macabre sense). People naturally assume the best in this scenario and think ‘it’ll be over soon...’ it clearly won’t and as Fauci said, mask will likely be needed into Q2 2022.

One point often overlooked for me is Avacta looks to be the governments preferred provider (still not a single naming of Avacta by Gov which I find incredible). I don’t think there is another sovereign U.K. provider looking to make anything like the capacity of avacta. So we are THE provider, there will be others but we will be (assuming it works)the flagship one. Again, I think this has been overlooked by the market despite the current market cap.

Onto the vaccine, which even it works and it all goes to plan (it won’t) is 18 months away from a solution. This government (all govs not just this one) have struggled with testing. A good example, as the IATA recently pointed out, providing a single dose to 7.8 billion people would fill 8000 Boeing 747 cargo aircrafts, even neglecting the fact that any vaccine may require several doses. In addition, vaccines have to be stored -50, perhaps -80... We struggle with transfer at normal temperatures. How will they cope with this....? Oh, and that little gem of Brexit in the wings...

It is therefore no wonder that attention has now switched to saliva mass testing. See the Times article today which talks of attention shifting (and Cummings being ‘absorbed’ by the mass rapid testing programme). We know who runs this government... so the focus is clear. This is the first I heard Cummings being interested in it. Also on the weekend we learn of an impending 4-6 week lockdown... significant in my mind.

Although this bb can be quite tough going at times, it is still pretty much the only place to ensure one stays ‘current’. So, like a crack addict looking for his next hit, I’m still here taking the junk which has been ‘cut’ with kitchen cleaner in hope of getting a bit of purity every now no again... the odd hit keeps me coming back.

The negatives:

The test is late. Make no bones about it and that is why those wishing to talk avacta down (entry or otherwise) have lots of ammo. Whether that is more down to supplies or that the process needs to be improved/tweaked in order to allow for far greater capacity than originally planned I suspect we will not know until there is a frank conversation once the test is out there or it all goes wrong. I.e. after the event.

This morning’s report around the target of 1m by year end makes it almost impossible avacta will roll out anything on Q4. Q4 will see the 10k test batch and, assuming it works then Q1 will see roll out. Q2 for the real capacity.

Despite the constant barrage of negativity, I am feeling very chipper about my investment here. First in around 90p and added all the way up to 175p over the past few months. Why?