Member Info for Poundcake

Increased testing and contact tracing

Number one on Biden's list of promises is more testing and contact tracing.

Testing has ramped up dramatically since the earliest days of the pandemic, but scientists say the nation needs tens of millions of tests per day to keep the country open safely, and even 10 months into the pandemic, there still aren't enough.

Without testing, scientists can't get a clear picture of where the virus is taking off. With as many as 40% of Covid-19 cases estimated to be asymptomatic, a quick test result is key to stopping the spread of the disease. And research has found about 75% of infected contacts need to be quarantined to stop the spread.

Biden promises all Americans will have access to "regular, reliable, and free testing."

It’s quite clear the BB will be overrun by trolls in the next few days.

Time to switch off, took some more at 110p today. Final top up from me.

Don’t see the vaccine stopping testing (we have had this debate) and ironically Avacta - despite our non covid firepower - saw a larger drop than other pure testing stocks today.

I go back to 117m spent on funnel and tubes, and 900m tender closing on Friday.

Remarkable fall today, completely overdone as ever.

See you when some sense returns, til then, all eyes on the 10k test batch.

I still can’t believe they held up an LFT at the podium!

Good luck/ignore the noise

Even if the vaccine works (and though promising the evidence isn't definitive), it only does so if people actually get vaccinated, and only 71.5% of UK population indicate that they are very or somewhat likely to do so. Only half of us say we will definitely do so.

Test,test,test

F*** me they are actually holding up lateral flow tests at the press conference!

I was joking when said that before!

Just need to drop the swab and we’re golden.

Back to staring at bod stats then!

Is to make an announcement on mass testing.

Ridiculously overblown sell off today. Just hope the end of the herd PI ‘investor’ here!

Classic Avacta. The herd pi base think it’ll all be over by Xmas. Never ceases to surprise.

Perhaps

Popcorn ready

Muck. Me too... innova award is there to see...unless they love the product and need more for December onwards.

I don’t see they would specifically include 10-30mins though when innova is clearly not that quick.

Here’s the description...

“ Lateral flow tests are used for the rapid (typically 10-30 minutes) detection of a coronavirus antigen. The test strip itself is composed of a nitrocellulose membrane, retained within typically a plastic housing with a window at one end with a sample pad for the addition of the sample and a window at the other end showing a visual positive or negative result dependant on the presence of the virus.”

Why would the description be 10-30 mins if this related to innova?

Or is consensus it’s not innova or avacta? Who else is there who the govn know can handle this type of volume over 3.5months...?

Interesting there is no talk of gazumping in the reasoning for this one... sovereign test?

Also 900m for 3.5 months is serious cash.

If the challenge, as I think it is, is with the scale up rather than the S&S than I can definitely see the U.K. gov signing a contract before s&s is announced. They’ve done it before and they obviously have a very good idea as to how the LFT performs to have got this far.

Announcement at same time wouldn’t be a surprise.

Amateur invest and mortgage back to what they do best.

Older wiser will be along soon.

The sooner this company is off aim and onto the Nasdaq the better.

It’s an absolute shower.

Today will be full of ‘Alastair promised x.... we should have an update... has he bought curtains yet... Myles sold out...etc etc’

Beyond tedious.

See you when the debate picks up.

Milk, they are dots for now, if they were a picture it would be £10+

There are clearly risks, there always are.

My point is risk reward, with all we know plus all the govn spending, suggests these dots will form a picture very soon.

I can see some who were recently holders but now out are struggling... at 170p it’s just above their buy point and every day the chance of a huge gap up increases.

That’s why the likes of older and wiser and others pop on to spread some fear every so often.

I’m very relaxed here and looking forward to what awaits.

Final point before I leave the bb in peace.

Why on earth would the government purchase 116m worth of funnels and saline pots for rapid testing.

The capacity gaps (working on £1 per kit) is 770m tubes.

I can’t find another test (in late stages of government talks) which requires saline and funnel(!).

I don’t think we appreciate just how much infrastructure is now in place for the LFT

It’s now common public knowledge (innova not avacta) and part of the lexicon

When bojo pops up with his sovereign test, which has been through far more testing than anything to date, and hopefully sees a far higher s&s (and proves the affimer platform works!)..

You will have a public which has seen this work in Liverpool and the government announce capacity which makes mass testing possible.

The 10k test batch to roll out will go a lot quicker than what has gone before. Everything is in place.

There is now a US market ready for a licensed product which works!

Of course it’s possible it doesn’t work. If it was nailed on this would £10+ right now.

However, I put the chances of that very low indeed. Why?

- multiple q&a sessions have shown Alastair to say it works and s&s is to be high

- David Wilson has confirmed it will come to market, there was zero chatter about the test working and far more of a focus on everything which needs to be scaled up to meet the huge demand

- strips, tubes, funnels.... they are all in short supply. This for me is a major reason for the delay (and the new focus on a far greater demand)

- there are so many moving parts. This is more a logistical challenge than anything.

- John bell (on new lateral flow saliva tests said these coming online are highly specific).... why? Because of the reagents....

- Alastair is very bullish on BAMs and said this bodes very well for the LFT given affimers.

So, although possible, I think the delays are due to logistics not the product.

As I have said before, with all that is known -This is a far better risk reward play than it was at 90p when I first bought it. Far far better from a risk perspective.

The infrastructure is now also in place.

Head of armed forces. Very clear on testing. This exercise in Liverpool is a pilot. There is an absolute intention to roll this out nationwide. That makes sense. Testing everyone and regularly will bring real control to the disease.

Obviously this is innova but as we have been speculating. If avacta lands and is both quicker, self administered and with higher s&s then the infrastructure is already in place.

Feels like it all hinges on the 10k batch. Everyone is ready for it.

Wasting no time. Covid is his first big test test and he will be very keen to show how different he is approaching it to mr orange. Everything is falling into place. Just need that 10k batch and a high s&s.

As John bell says, those ‘regents’ are highly specific

“ we need to partner with a US pharma to market it”

Which Alastair has said we will. We won’t be making it ourselves. A couple of bucks a test to licence it will do me fine.