Member Info for Poundcake

Lock downs on an off til March until that moonshot is humming nicely.

Avacta to the rescue.

Good post. Thanks.

There are many (odx holders mainly) who like to think that the mologic test ibis being rolled out on mass scale by this government.

For a few reasons I think that is for the birds. They are behind avacta and have no entry into condor.

Which only leaves avacta.

No need to apologise milk. Here for a debate.

I just think there are too many health and safety implications to the sanity of the tube if people are to swill the saliva.

Personal view is the majority of people are capable of gobbing through a funnel into a tube. May be wrong but judging by q&a i think that is more likely.

Do you have a link by any chance?

Fair, that was another issue noted by DW at labroots. How will this work? Gov pays BBI?

At some point there has to be an avacta contract though and will will give indication as to volume...

Cautious... it was for saline filled tubes and funnels.... that’s all one needs no? I.e. funnel sits on top of saline filled tube. Gob into pot... mix and go?

Far distant hills. Yes, don’t trust the lay user.

Surely that is why the contract is for pre filled saline pots.

Gob via the funnel into said pot.

Shake it up.

Pour onto test strip.

I can’t find the very good post from the other day by someone who detailed the outstanding tests... but it would be good to compare those with needing a funnel.

For example, the oft quoted innova test being used in Liverpool has no need for a funnel.

David Wilson mentioning this capacity issue combined with a bid stats contract seems just too much of a coincidence.

Next up, the bid stats contract for avacta hopefully.

That could prove eye watering and it’ll need to be signed before soon after the concept has been proven.

Cautious... the reason I think the saliva stays in the pot is because if you are drinking saliva from a tube it comes with a hideous number of ‘elf and safety requirements.

I.e. the saline is the buffer which makes the test work better and flow (remember that chart from presentation showing performance with and without a buffer solution).

May be wrong but I can’t see people being encouraged to wash the saline around in their mouth.

Either way. Only one reason for 770m funnels to be needed....

Indeed... and I keep going back to those funnels... innova requires a swab.... there is only one reason for a mass testing kit to require a funnel... SALIVA..... combine that with the pre filled saline pots and you have bingo.

If you want to really excite those parotid glands, do the following sums:

Capacity gap... £770m (100%)....

£1 per tube and saliva (estimate)

770m individual kits needed....

Say the test costs £10-£15 quid to govn.... let’s take a mid point... £12.50....

£12.50 x 770m = £9.6billion

Best part... that is less than 10% of the cost of moonshot being reported....

And would only cover 64m tests per month...

David Wilson’s slide said moonshot demand was for 100m capacity per month in the U.K. alone.

I think we are starting to see the basis of the govn’s procurement capacity come to fruition.

Are 59 mins away from Avacta, based in East Riding.

They have recently obtained an FDA licence to export medical supplies to the US.

As has been covered by C.Optimistic. This is a huge contract for consumables.

This contract will only fill 15% of the current capacity gap.

The contract is for saline filled tubes and funnels.

At the lab roots discussion, David Wilson said it is not just the test manufacture that is difficult in the numbers needed but there is a shortage of everything, strips, funnels, plastic tubes etc.

Now it seems the process is to spit into a saline filled tube (using the funnel)... shake it up.... and pour onto the LFD.... I don’t believe it’s going to be the other way round due to the health requirements and the q&a said it will not be a dip in mouth situation as that introduces new onerous requirements for hygiene standards etc.

So, of the tests that are waiting in the wings.... how many need the combination of:

This type of capacity (it is huge if use £1 per product, I think it may even be lower)

This exact set up, ie saline in a tube and a funnel.... ie. if it was just a saline tube it could be a swab..like the current home test situation.... but why do you need millions of funnels.... that can only be for a saliva based product....

The look at how they landed on origin.... “ When investigating available delivery capacity, capacity availability was identified with the supplier that presented and an opportunity arose to secure additional volumes of sample collection consumables ahead of lead times being provided by alternative suppliers.”

It seems a bit of a coincidence origin are this close to avacta.

So, why on earth does the government need 116m worth of plastic tubes and funnels....?

100% of the current deficit is a contract worth over £770m (for plastic tubes).

It is starting to become clear the sort of volume the government is looking at and why david wilson said the deficit is not just with the LFT.

Salivating at this prospect, yet?

As for the comment from merchant banker saying “ Abingdon and BBI had nothing to lose by signing manufacturing agreements that have to be conditional on having an approved test. If it succeeds they win, if it doesn't they go find other products.”

One would think both manufacturers would take a very different view. Capacity if vital in this pandemic. Finding and tooling U.K. for another product is made to sound as easy as popping to the shop for some milk.

I must have missed how easy it is to ‘find another product’ which works. Off to the shop to knock up an LFT or two. I’ll give BBI a ring when I’m done.

Pottery, an excellent post. Thought exactly the same re, John bell comments.

I’ll be topping up today.

Don’t forgot this also ties in with the he timeline given by Colin king when talking generally about lfts from the government

Get it right or suffer. Alastair has played it perfectly.

Let’s produce a solid product. The states still don’t have a solution...

Biden, don’t forget, said his number 1 priority as president is rapid testing.... the dems like to splash the cash!

Add in cautious optimists post re, funnels.

It’s a huge order and does indeed look like it’s gearing up for moonshot.

If not us, who else, as you say...?

CO - great post. Figures look right to me. And as you say, when did they last think that far ahead...

Also fits with Alastair saying ‘once the 10k batch is done we he will give a far more precise timeline for route to market’

I’m not expecting us to hit full capacity early December, but I am expecting the proof of concept, ideas around the contract and how the BIVDA capacity procurement will work.

I can’t find the link but the timeline for validation was cut, if I recall from 6 weeks to 3 or 4.

Once the tech transfer is complete the machine is clicked and we have the 10k batch pretty quickly (I.e. days).

My point is for the government to talk about “scale never seen before” they are likely in control of supply.

That means not flying in from China. That means a sovereign supply.

There is one test I know of with a sovereign supply working with the govn to these type of numbers.

I can’t 1) see who else it could be and 2) the timelines do (i think) fit...

“ (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday his government would roll out new types of COVID-19 testing "on a scale never seen before" to stem the growing pandemic when a new lockdown in England expires on Dec. 2.

"At the expiry of this period on December 2 ... we will be rolling out across this country new types of testing on a scale never seen before," Johnson told parliament.”

Surprised this is not getting more air time. If not for Us elections it no doubt would.

There is only one sovereign test that I am aware of which the govn is procuring capacity on behalf of.

Timelines fit, no? Thinking of the link the other day re. reduction in validation times from 6 weeks to 3 weeks I think it was?

That would fit if the sample was to roll off the production line end of next week...?

If not, who else?