Member Info for potnak

on no, they seem to be back! ha ha. Glitch in the matrix. The lizard people just upgraded someone.

Someone probably went through and reported the posts. I'm not sure thye broke any of the rules unless there is a rule about really boring threads that don't get us anywhere.

RMM, I'm a little bit more cautious but the same. I can see a spike and some consolidation at around 4 or 5p. What a base for TO talks though! and if not, successful P1 trials will see us at 10p or more. All depends on what the milestones look like. And not forgetting COVID, if the compounds are relevant. We sail through P1 in record time. The only binary decision is Aurora. Squeeky bum time doesn't come until P3 .

It's because 3 of the 4 compounds are still preclinical. The vast majority of preclinical compounds never get to P1. I think both TKY2 are nailed on to at least p2. Aurora is a dark horse. It could go either way IMO. But, yes, Mazik. Sareum could well be the most undervalued secret on AIM.

Don't have L2 anymore but it's next to useless on low volume AIM stock.

The time for top skimming has gone now. Unless there is a ridiculous spike, I'm not selling a single share until all four bits of news are in. also, I couldn't care less if the SP drops in the run-up to the news. We know its coming and it's coming this year. We'll have to wait and see what the SP looks like when it arrives.

Gunner - Probably. but it's only going one way in the longer term. I'd buy more at 0.6.

aa - would you sell at 3p and just be done with it? Genuine question. I don't question anyone's strategy as with AIM, you are winning if you break even. Just curious and asking because I think you will get your 3p this year. I have a bit of an exit plan and but personally, If it spiked, I would find it difficult to hold anything past 20p and if it got past 30p I would just sell the lot, even if the potential was a pound.

Facts are facts. We know the likely deals sizes and what Tim will be looking for and it's anything between 10 and a 100 million upfront with billions in milestones. We know MTD hasn't been found yet and we know the compound has a good safety profile so It's likely to sail through P1 and trigger the first major milestone. The company could be cash rich in less than two years so some of the P1\P2 completion milestones have to be factored into the value. Say we are 3 - 5p with good news on 4 compounds with. The next 2 years could bring in potential milestones worth hundreds of millions. I'm not and expert in MA or valuing companies but RMM, Thoth etc. make a good case for why they think what they think and I've researched other deals. I have no reason to think SAR will be any different when it comes to deal sizes.

I am mr pragmatism. I have always been cautious of some of the predictions on here. It's not that I think they are wrong, it's that I don't believe we will get to the point were the company is worth 3 billion. SAR will be long gone before any of the drugs starts earning royalties (unless there is a fast track). I've said before. If we have a good run to the end of the year. The SP could well be 5p and in that case, what would be a fair value for a buyout. Suddenly 20p doesn't seem that big.

16p to 41p? 28p is right in the middle but I suspect you knew that RMM :-)

Saint. VAL? they are cheap for a reason. Some investors need the sp to 100 bag to just break even. And PYC, I don't get it. they are selling a service that no one is buying. I can't see how that business model will ever be worth hundreds of millions. Good stock to trade though!! :-)

J4F - Your last line sums it up for LTH. After all the digging in, our holes are pretty deep after all this time. :-). I used SNG as an example of what the AIM market will value the potential at. I agree that SAR have been clear with expectations and i'm happy to wait.

Thoth - I know its hard to put a value on a pre clinical compound but do you think our TYK2 npv could be 10% of that or more like 1%? I'm incline to think 1% but that would still be £50 mil ish. At least until P2.

Market Cap is the value though. If SAR had a £350 mil MC, the SP would be more than 10p. This is why most long termers don't sweat the current low SP. The SP will re rate according to the value and future potential of the deals.

SNG are valued at £350 mil on one compound. We have a potential 4. We might have to wait for 28p but it is possible.

Think we are in for a wild ride in the next 4 months. Who knows were the SP will end up? certainly multiples of today SP. Disregarding talk of buyouts for now. Still think we could be 5p with everything licenced and SRA737 moving forwards.

It must be exhausting going to bed every night, hoping for an RNS when you wake up. The company have given us the timescales. Let them get on with it. This Cornish life has made me more chilled that I usually am. If we got a pound a share, I'd but a small place down here. Ha ha.

I looked into it. The name doesn't seem to match any of the conventions. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_nomenclature

I would have gladly taken 5p a year ago. Like I said, we could easily see 5p this year,maybe more on spike if news came all at once. We're still a fair way off the binary win/lose scenario though. As Tim says with the MTD, it's a nice problem to have.