Member Info for Porky9

@Wilson63
Well just another £ 2.8 bn worth of Chinese LFT product to go then...

You would think they would learn after Moonshot. Doing the same thing and expecting different outcome.
Fully backed the vaccine, reactionary to VOC - you couldn't make it up
Really do not want LD4 don't need it...

@Deos
Was £12,25 in January
What a pointless comment.

I was reading the Breakfast time interview on reducing testing costs for travel
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/transport-secretary-accepts-cost-of-pcr-testing-is-too-expensive
Shapps said “I would love it if we can get to the point of using a lateral flow test when people get home, or no test at all.” But he stressed the government would proceed with an “abundance of caution. We don’t want people bringing home variants of concern.”

In support, Randox said it will offer tests via home delivery for £60 with a code from the Airline:-
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/firm-cuts-pcr-test-costs-to-60-for-international-travellers

The key take aways from this are:-
1. I get that its popular to demand price reductions for testing for Holidays
2. But how Naive can you be? There is a world of difference in costs for manned testing onsite at an airport with home test kits being processed.
3. Having had a break out of SA Variant in London and now carrying out surge testing at a cost of gawd knows how much to clean up the mess after missing someone, (could be as many as 700,000 surge tested in that region!!) if anything they should be clamping down hard and ensuring that not only is it PCR tests but its supervised tests to ensure they are carried out correctly - we cant risk ONE person bringing in a new variant.
4. They need to ensure that the tests carried out are ALL capable of picking up the VOCs anything less is a risk. The focus should be on this first. Quality of tests NOT how cheap you can getthem.
5. I don't think Randox made the approved list originally. This offer is to get them on the list?. It looks like a sales gimmick tome.
6. The thought of allowing people to enter the UK go home and do an LFT is beyond comprehension. For that to happen, ROW would need to have high vaccination levels and the risk of a Variant entering very low. I would say we are YEARS off that position.

@MacTrader
But its not like we are talking about a busted flush here, if you read the messages here from certain new posters over the last two days you would think the world was falling in and the company was on the brink of closure.

Yet, its far from it, in fact its growing and they are on a major recruitment drive. In reality even without the phase two extension they are still on course to deliver £160m of EBITDA this year and end with over £ 200m cash at bank.

Our mcap is sitting at a rather pathetic £ 300m at the moment. Not just are there numerous examples of diagnostics firms at better more significant multiples than Novacyt but there are businesses that haven't done ANY business whatsoever but on the potential of doing some business ,that also carry more meaningful valuations.

I do believe this will right itself and that's why i remain positive. We are soon to find out.

GLA

@Lockedandloaded
I'm on the same page, it's absolutely outrageous. Its essential that we maintain quality border control. Quality all the way. PCR testing and specifically look out for these Variants.
I have no idea either why they keep going back to this Chinese junk. £ 2.8 billion, if that's correct, is a hell of lot of tax payers money wasted.

@All
I can only apologise if my posting is considered Rampy. I have tried to tone it down recently but i remain VERY passionate about this company. I'm annoyed about recent events, i feel that the messages from the company could have been handled better and i also consider that the Share price has been marked down disproportionately to the situation. Its a total over reaction as far as i'm concerned an di expect this to right itself shortly.
I detest shorter's and anyone trying to inflict further damage here on the back of our current challenging situation. I make no apology for that.

However, i'm trying to remain positive. They are doing a lot of things right on the business side and recruitment is continuing which is not the sign of company short of business. We have possibly the best test in the market for all known variants, a cracking R&D team on the cusp of rolling out some second gen tests and a solid network into 150 countries.

I also really believe that the DHSC situation will resolve within the 28 day arbitration period, i see no reason why it shouldn't. I stand by my previous valuation calculations, we are battered but not out. All these matters will soon become clear, not that long until H1 reveal and there are a heck of a lot of companies in this sector with better valuations not doing as well as Novacyt are - our reward will come here, one way or another.

GLA

Yes, this is the concern; The SA Variant is specifically nasty. Can escape Antibodies.
The BBC reporting further about the London Outbreak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56729607
44 Cases Confirmed and 30 probable. This must be contained.
But what annoys the hell out of me is this is as a result YET again of ONE person NOT properly tested on arrival from Africa to the UK at the airport.
And the government focus is on cheaper tests. FOCUS on QUALITY first make borders watertight then worry about pricing.
See table here (this was prior to the Brittany Variant which needs adding)
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1379481457845014533/photo/1
See Variants here:-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1381085141058084872/photo/1
This is why tonight Bojo has change in View, he knows that the VOC's can set us right back to stage 1 again if we are not careful. Vaccines alone are NOT enough for full control.
Worrying

In south London, dozens of cases of the South Africa variant of Covid-19 have been detected, chiefly in the boroughs of Wandsworth and Lambeth, leading to what the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has said is the “largest surge testing operation to date”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/13/surge-testing-may-not-be-enough-to-curb-covid-variants-in-uk-say-scientists
Everyone aged 11 years and over who lives, studies, works or travels through these areas is being asked to take a PCR test for the coronavirus – even if they do not have symptoms of Covid. Positive samples are then further analysed to determine which variant is present.

@Temuchin
Thanks for sharing that, i hadn't see the article.
What is interesting is that testing for Antibodies they also see as a long term testing requirement
The next gen Antibody test that Novacyt release could be really well timed. I notice that its all kicking off for Abington regarding their Antibody test being less effective than first thought, so Novacyt could potentially steal some market share here. Interesting.
Thanks again

@B2HS2L
Can't argue with much that you say, we are both on the same side here and want share price improvement - lets see how event's unfold. There is a lot going on behind the scenes for sure.
I still think a TO approach is highly likely but we will see. In the meantime, GM needs to turn this around and restore faith in investor confidence.
I also agree that genomic surveillance could also become a game changer for this business.
Also, a decent stateside order could also make a material difference to our fortunes. Replacing the DHSC with numerous smaller World Wide orders would also position us better.

As i see it we currently sit in oversold territory, some positive statements from GM at this time would work wonders. I believe that Shareholders at least deserve that much.

Lets see how this week unfolds and go from there

Take Care

Pork's

As a totally offside comment:-
Frankly with all the talk and Rhetoric by our government about buying British it does look like being as cheap as chips wins the day. They are taking the biscuit.
A few weeks back papers were full of awards for GAD, Surescreen and Omega to secure part of the the £ 8bn tenders and now we find that some awards are given but can't be executed for what ever reason and the Chinese who gave us this dam virus are securing mega deals as a result !!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9438727/Two-firms-supplying-kits-Governments-mass-Covid-testing-drive-huge-payday.html
£2.8 bn award to Innova. Also sick of the press trying to paint them as a Californian business. Technically yes but all the kit is manufactured in China and we will be collecting the kit from china and paying all the dam flight shipping costs from China.
Don't care that most of these are LFT orders its the principle of it - £ 2.8bn of business should go to UK companies.
Anyhow, it is as it is...
In some ways we are better NOT to be reliant on UK government contracts, they can u-turn on decisions at the flip of a coin by the looks of it.

WE know that a second Gen Antibody test is also being added to Pathflow range this quarter because they confirmed same in the R&D update.

They also alluded to additional LFTs being added in the recent news release so its logical especially in view of UK demand for an LFT Antigen test to also be released.

I'm not a scientist but based on the issues other providers are having getting an Antigen Test approved and the required steps to validation are fairly complex so it wont be a straight forward matter but i believe its well within the reach of Novacyt. I would bet before the end of next month we will know for sure.

As for RNS, it is a regulatory service designed to notify the market of something material that may affect future revenues. You could argue that the Antigen LFT warrants more than a tweet as it will likely add to revenues above what is forecast but GM plays everything on the downlow and didn't feel it was deemed necessary.

Perhaps a further R& D update will follow once both the products are released?

@Stocksie
So in your opinion you are saying highest point in the last 12 months
In our case £ 12.25 was the high according to HL
Pork's

@B2HSL2
There has been lots of consolidation in the diagnostics sector to date.

I take on board your view point but equally i don't class a small AIM/Bourse listed business as one that would fall under the rules of protection from a foreign takeover. Come off it, we are talking Novacyt here, a small diagnostics business NOT British Nuclear fuels.

And anyhow, if we are no longer supplying DHSC and the French are not buying from us, what do they care? I don't think they even know who we are? If the French government want us then maybe they should bid?

Now i'm not suggesting any impropriety on GMs behalf, he is honest as a day is long and an exceptional scientist. However, the RNS issued not only mentioned the dispute (maybe a Regulatory requirement to disclose before completion of arbitration) but was it really necessary to add the visibility comment on top? as if things were not bad enough.

Also, the SP was materially marked down after results factoring in that the phase 2 was not a given so its not like at £ 500m mcap, based on what the business was delivering at the time, was somehow over valued when you consider what other similar concerns are valued at or even trying to list at. House brokers were suggesting fair value at £ 14.33 share price.

You mention that GM doesn't do Hype and I totally get that, he is not like the CEO of other concerns issuing an RNS the moment they sign up someone to sell their potential products, i totally get that HOWEVER he does have a duty to us share holders, he should be acting in our best interests.

I don't think SH are asking much for a bit more positivity in statements from Novacyt, some quality PR, Other diagnostics businesses can do it why cant Novacyt?

We have had a royal stuffing of late, its the least he can do frankly as far as i'm concerned

Pork's

20 mins ago tweet from Novacyt marketing:-
https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1382013248975818755
"Range of Products Will Quickly Expand"
https://microgenbioproducts.com/pathflow-2/

Hopefully a really good next gen rapid Antibody Test released and I'm hoping within the next few weeks they also release a next gen rapid Antigen test. May as well.

@Murzy
I know various tech businesses that tender for deals UNDER the true value and will make a short term loss on them just to win Government contracts for market share. In some cases its a joke.
I don't doubt much of the issue is down to pressure on the price point.
Novacyt deliver quality. In a lot of ways they are probably better off with DHSC going forwards. Not all business is good business.

@B2HS2L
Respect you as a researcher

Yes, i have been ultra bullish with a £54 mid Cap valuation i grant you and imo the business was on a solid course towards that goal. However, that changed in January when GM started to get involved with Cog-UK and establishing himself at the front of innovating products for VOC

I think the off record discussions started in January but full visability of accounts was required to seal any suggested deal.

IMO we have been played for fools with recent events. The SP had already factored in no DHSC extension when it was coasting in the £ 7 range after its fall from £ 12.

We will know soon enough, i could be totally wrong and i will be told so here, i don't much care. I genuinely can't see any reason why a CEO would act as he is unless he knew it was highly likely they would form part of some other larger company shortly.

Also, ask your self this: They were going on an extensive acquisition path with a deal expected last Q4. Then it was likely Q1 we are now in Mid April Q2 and still no signs of a deal? not even a small one sub £ 30m ??

Stinks frankly

No idea as they have taken the P@ss

I know what the real value should be, it should be at least £2bn imo but they will likely sell it cheap and mug the share holders imo - this is honestly what i'm expecting to see happen now in view of recent events

I'm going to say 45% premium to the three month average and bid £700m £ 10 a share - I would like to think they would actually show some regard for SH and agree at least a £1bn T/O £ 14 a share but on the basis they have shown scant regard for us so far, its probably wishful thinking

With any luck someone else will move in and counter offer and we might stand a better chance... can but hope

I also think a TO is about to drop
Some will say blah blah Pork's ramping etc etc but i keep coming back to the same conclusions:-
a) Its strategic worded RNS by advisors whilst full year accounts are being audited before an "Official" bid is made
OR
b) GM really is a blithering idiot and added that he had no vision of future sales just for effect to crash the share price even further.

@ £ 300m mcap
Just watch the funds take control now sucking up stock, expect T1 in with two days
I'm going to be as bold as to say BRock will go North of 5%
Should be fcking illegal the way this stock has been raided

@Wilson63
Its totally relentless frankly
There was a sustained shorting attack during business hours imo. I have never seen so many newbies posting here without any substance. Its probably three spotty guys in a room with four accounts each!!
Just, world falling in type posts "sell now, it will fall to 10P" or "I'm buying if t drops another £1" yada yada yada

We are Probably in for much of the same until further updates are issued. Although i'm surprised with the SP this low anyone still want =s to short this? Must be much more profitable targets to go at?, i can think for 5 or 6 off the top of my head!!

Anyhow, the bottom line for me is that there is now not that much more they can squeeze out of this now, its kind of do you worst scenario.

I'm not selling any of my stock at fire sale levels that's for sure, so either Novacyt get it right now and turn it around or the business is sold for best price, either way i will get my return. I'm certainly giving GM the chance to deliver having gone this far, even if i have to wait another year for it ...

Take care now..