Member Info for Porky9

DHSC have a number of contract disputes open. Appalling way to conduct business frankly.

IMO They are unlikely to publish results until the DHSC position in relation to Q4 invoicing is confirmed or any possible exceptional charge is allotted or the position clarified.

Frankly, i still believe that the the matter will be resolved no change. I think this along with many other disputes they are currently involved in is all about the DHSC going mad over-ordering at the start of the pandemic, agreeing minimum orders, businesses going hell for leather to meet these orders and then for DHSC to try and wiggle out of bloody paying on a try on!!!! As I say, not all business is good business.

Last year Final Audited Results were published on the 15th May, they could come early but i would work on that date. It should give us a well earned boost with the position fully clarified one way or another.

Anyhow, that's the historic its all about the future now. Cracking Q1 results 83m already, very confident of Q2 with the volumes of activity going on. No wonder they still need more staff.

GLA

Major move now towards the Private Sector Labs
Boost of £15bn Contracts (Lot 4) for Private Labs of which Novacyt support Many of them with Reagents and solutions.
Expanding PCR genotyping assay portfolio
Open Platform
Novact Solutions support private sector testing and detection of COVID-19 variants. We have the ONLY open platform to detect ALL Known Variants.
Cambridge Clinical Laboratories and Excalibur Laboratories are Just two examples where we support
The recent awards are SIGNIFICANT for us as a result
Further boost towards our H1 results which i believe will be well above expectations as a result.
83m rev in Q1 is nothing compared to where this is going
GLA

Even at £5 the Market Cap would only be £350m

When the AIM allows a Company like this to fall so Low under what is a fire sale value it just makes a total mockery out of investing on the Junior market

@Brentw1
Agreed, I mean the SP just defies all logic, fire sale value. I mean you wouldn’t think think this was business that had just turned in over 70m of revenue this quarter not to mention all the advance IP and world class R&D divisions
The AIM is a joke at times

There are numerous disputes - its ridiculous

DHSC and the Government are turning into VERY unreliable customers. The reality is that its likely that iro Novacyt the DHSC just ordered too much stock at the start of the pandemic. To bad

There was a minimum order value of £ 150m that Novacyt had to fill and we know that the balance is short by some £ 27m not invoiced yet - i suspect that DHSC are trying to wiggle out of it.

Hopefully a resolve will be sorted soon - it looks just awful all around frankly

We talk about fair value here and our position is clearly restricted until further clarity although just to put this into perspective, Source Bio (SBI) which provides EXACTLY the same sector diagnostics although i would argue isn't anywhere near in the same league as Novacyt is on a PE Ratio of X 9.6, we can't even make X 1 currently :-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/sourcebio-international-plc-ord-gbp0.0015
Delivered £ 50m Rev, £2.7m EBITDA, Cash at Bank £ 8m and its MCAP is £ 130m

Novacyt stripping out the DHSC and we already know we are in the £ 3 bn 4 year Frame Work
Delivered 311m Rev, 210m EBITDA, Cash at Bank 101m and its MCAP is £ 263m tonight so we are valued almost the same yet we are delivering 77 Times the profits!! with more than 11 times the cash reserves.

Forward for 2021 at £ 160m EBITDA and £ 200m Cash at Bank just makes a total mockery out of our valuation.
No idea how long this is going to take to get right but at some point something has to give here....
Our current mcap is at best a total joke.

GLA

@MacTrader
Oh, without doubt the worldwide stage looks ugly, I see massive growth potential also in USA and Canada frankly and Diagnostics will become further valued as countries bolster their capabilities against future attacks.

Control of VOCs now is also cause for concern, so I do not see Novacyt being short of business anytime soon frankly!!!

The way I see it is that the market is factoring in worst case scenario here that an exceptional charge could be posted against Q4 earnings. Add to that lack of clarity on DHSC and forward trading and it all looks horrid. However, I do not share that view. Shortly the position will be confirmed one way or another, but I think it will be in our favour.

I was also encouraged by the Q1 worldwide result which was bloody superb. Stripping out the DHSC it was still coming in north of £ 35m, these are revenues some businesses on AIM could only ever dream of so I have total confidence that 2021 EBITDA and Cash at Bank will continue to remain strong.

This is now all about the forward statement, being part of the 4-year framework deal was a positive and imo some selective wins stateside, product innovations this quarter and some selective acquisitions will likely see the Share price rebound sharply. For this reason, I am holding on it, adding as I can afford and confident, they can do this.

In business nothing is easy, Novacyt have some challenges but they are not insurmountable. They also have imo one of the best R&D teams worldwide. Yes, they are sh@t at shareholder communication, but these are scientists we are talking about. Fundamentals will ultimately out here, and a decent PE ratio assigned and when they do the SP will be rated properly not this effective cash basis we currently trade at.

Here is to better days,

Pork’s

Frustrating that the Share Price is still suffering despite cracking worldwide sales. The price drop feels well and truly overdone in comparison to fundamental strength.

All this at the backdrop of worsening worldwide conditions so you would be expecting the SP to rally, frankly. Time, however, can often be the biggest killer for Retail. We live in an instant world and Novacyt are building a business that takes time without updates Retail get bored.

Until the company update us, we remain in the dark and that of course creates the uncertainty that shorter’s and other pond life feed off.

Fortunately, I expect matters to change shortly: -

• Full Audited Results Due which we know will be superb.
• 311.6m Revenue / 210.8m EBITDA / 101m Cash
• Either Confirmation of Dispute resolved OR provision statement clarity one way or another
• 2nd Gen Antibody LFT release
• Antigen LFT release
• H1 Results
• Strategy on Direction of Group

It would be good to have an update regarding how the Genotype Testing Assay fits in. Visibility on How the two subsidiary businesses fare in relation to both the Lot 1 £ 3bn framework tender and the partner supply deals to the companies in the Lot 3 tender.

I am still curious as to what the point of all that data on Saliva samples with AZN was all about? I cannot see the point of proving a case if nothing is then done with the data.

Finally, can we win anything major stateside? They have all the accreditations in place now, so it is a matter of time. Is the business going to do anything regarding acquisitions? I mean we are fast approaching end of April and still nothing, you would expect a deal of some kind by now? OR is it us that is now the prey???

Anyhow, good luck holders, we will soon know one way or another. I am still adding.

Pork’s

Results will confirm the position for the 2020 year and WILL be superb.

Any adjustment would as disclosed relate to Q4 ONLY. In my opinion it will result in no change.

By my calculation based on DHSC business in Q4, in the unlikely event of an adjustment i think we are talking -23m but could go the other way +27m if they are allowed to invoice the minimum order value and that might be what the dispute is over!!!

Time will tell but in Q1 they just delivered £76m of which £ 35m was World wide sales and the outlook world wide is getting worse currently so as far as im concerned i believe we will actually end up with a real positive 21 year result AND stronger than 2020!!!!

Anyhow time will tell,GLA

Pork's

@pebble101
Tay remains positive she can tell you herself

Watch this space
Short will need to be brought back. World Quant will be looking for a exit imo. It would be utter madness to keep this SHORT open at this level.
SP could turn very quickly.
I'm actually trying to close a couple of other positions to go further in here, this can only hold so long
Good Luck

Just Added
£ 10k
2736 @ 364.93
Good luck what ever your call

Well I'm still adding
They have significant cash at bank and delivered £ 76m in Q1
If this is all the business is worth then there is no hope for anything on AIM frankly
Good Luck what ever your call
Pork's

Very little trade volume
A few extra shorts opened that need to be repaid
A further tree shake
On schedule for £ 200m cash at Bank this year
Mcap £ 258m
Make your own calls
Holding and Adding
Take Care
Pork's

We know that Novacyt are leading the way in Genotype Assay Testing but we are still yet to find out the significance of this government update published a few weeks back:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-new-technology-to-detect-known-variants-of-concern

With so much going on here, it a short matter of time before something gives.

Onwards and Upwards

Good Luck all,

Pork's

Overly concerning reports out that the Indian Variant can not only spread rapidly as is happening in India but may be able to escape the vaccine antibodies.

Prime minister Cancels India Visit due to the Variant and India moves to Red Status.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56800305
“India has been reporting more than 200,000 cases daily and has been added to the UK's "red list", meaning people returning from there must quarantine in a hotel for 10 days. The PM said he would instead speak to his counterpart Narendra Modi online.”

However, worse is that yet again, due to our own lax border control the Variant is already in the UK with 182 cases identified

https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-infectious-and-should-the-uk-be-concerned-12280387
“Some mutations can make the virus more infectious, deadly or resistant to vaccines. The Indian virus is one of those - especially because two mutations have come together to help infect cells and evade the immune system”.
“It is doubling every week, as did the Kent variant when it was detected in September but is doing so under "much tighter restrictions and more vaxxed people", she said”.

We will need to see how this one unfolds but its looking likely it will be shortly classified as a VOC along the same lines as the SA Variant.

Another reason why highly accurate Testing is absolutely essential.

@1.butchers.bike
Totally agree, we are siting at a pathetic £ 280m mcap having just confirmed £ 76m revenue in Q1 !!!!
£ 160m EBITDA this year and £ 200m cash at Bank for this year yet shorter's think they can still panic RI into selling.
That's before the two amazing Frame Work deals. Lot 1 £3bn Novacyt have two subsidiary companies involved and in the other we supply both companies with the reagents - Bring it on...

Imagine what the SP will be like when this company moves from a cash rating and gets awarded a decent PE ratio.

Onwards and Upwards

Here you go:-
https://www.shortics.com/novacyt

You will see here that we had a short of .64 from World Quant on Friday and Today they have actually increased it!!!!! to 1.19 try and give it one last push down to encourage retail sales BUT the attempt failed as the stock is oversold.

I would just love Novacyt to put out an update to absolutely stuff them. The GREAT news is that the moment the SP starts rising, they can try and short more and chuck more money at it but ultimately as buying pressure increases they have no choice but to buy it back hence SP rally.

Why anyone wants to short a stock on >X1 is beyond me but of course with a bit of uncertainty they can play on that hence the effort going in here to create miss trust.

I'm still adding, mcap now so low in relation to earnings its just a matter of time before a serious re-rate.

Good luck all,

Porks

Truly amazing

Shorting syndicate posts tonight from active "new" accounts "DrDev" and "Fortuna8" possibly the same poster really is the most pathetic blatant de-ramp attempts so far. Pathetic.

Great long winded posts to create fear and panic.

There is NO "loss of half the turnover" for the year, that's blatant miss-information.

There is a dispute which "may" affect PART of the revenues in Q4 of last years results. However the bit they don't like highlighting is that even if we were to strip 100% of the revenue out from DHSC for that quarter the year figures are still AMAZING. Further they just delivered £76m revenue in Q1, these are sales figures most businesses can only ever dream of. The world market is huge.

The issue shorter's have is that the position needs to be brought back and they desperately need you to sell hence the concentrated effort here since last week when the short was placed. I will prove this in a moment.

IF you look at volume today, retail selling has all but dried up. So if a small amount of buying pressure starts the SP will quickly rally. We only have 70m of shares in issue. This is a MASSIVE factor here, compare this business to other listed companies and you will see hence it doesn't take much to move the SP big time.

Good luck all genuine holders, if you are not in ANY hurry, in my opinion you should give this business until at least H1 result's and statement to end of June. Only a few weeks now anyhow and by then i believe the outlook will be materially different. In the meantime, these posters will come and go but their mission is clear to encourage retail sales. Don't fall for it

Good luck all, starting to get interesting

Pork's