Member Info for Porky9

Indeed, confidence is certainly refreshing.. Just as a teaser, last line of RNS
"...means Novacyt is well positioned to develop a long-term commercial position in the UK market."

At last, the use of really positive "Long Term" wording further endorsing Longevity.
Bring it on...

Morning @Wilson63
What a difference a day makes....
Take Care
Pork's

@milnrowmug
I would like to assist you on your valuation questions;

You might be aware that I come from a VERY Bullish position on this. Some here class me as the "resident ramper" I don't much care, you see I have spent hours and hours researching this business, its history in the making as far as i'm concerned.

It's a fantastic business that will reach fair mid cap status (3bn - 6bn) from my perspective. This is why I'm so passionate about it. They have one of the best R&D teams in this sector in the world, they are working solidly on delivering sales supplying to 150 countries, they are shockingly crap at Share Holder communication but ultimately the figures will speak for themselves once the share is properly rated. I hold a £ 54 SP target. I accept this looks ridiculous at the moment with the share price at this level, but i consider the current share price to be less than the "fire sale" value of the company.

My target is based on an EV/EBITDA Valuation VERY similar to the calculation prepared here by Blackbird Investing. He details the calculation perfectly:-
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/

A lot here depends on your perspective of the Covid Outlook. I believe that we will have to learn to live with it and variants will keep coming. just like the flu virus we will need to be on our guard and keep updating. Diagnostics worldwide is becoming a VERY important sector as a result. As such i consider revenues will remain high for at least the next four years and within that time Novacyt will further establish itself within other diagnostics related verticals.

The business is doing some great work in Cancer Tumor Testing, New tests in maternity to replace the current invasive tests used during pregnancy at the moment. They are involved in veterinary diagnostics and numerous other diagnostics areas that we rarely discuss due to the heavy focus on Covid but they are diversifying further.

Of course the Covid pandemic worldwide is attracting the most attention, Novacyt are busy supporting the world in this direction. They have the only tests picking up ALL variants. As i say its a fantastic business.

Blackbird Investing considers £ 49.69 (£3.5bn mcap) as his BULLISH top end price for this stock and £ 13.80 as his most bearish position. This was before todays RNS of further product reach.

I have mashed these figures around in numerous ways. Comparing Novacyt to other Diagnostics businesses on other exchanges and i still come back to my bullish rating of £54.

You see what throws the current valuation out at the moment is that the market still does not know how to value Novacyt. Originally it was considered as a one hit wonder and that Covid would blow over quickly hence it was on a cash rating and remains on that. This is about to change as this is no longer the case. The recent framework award for example was on a 4 year deal, reconfirming the LONGEVITY argument. So in my mind a re-valu

@flushfrank
I think you are totally bang on the money there.
We have this nonsense situation with French policy for reimbursement so it fits.
Not sure why but despite the French connections we have historically done very little French business. They were also a pain in the ars@ when we tried to get the reimbursement status for Winterplex. Lets hope the position changes.

It would be good to see some decent sized orders out of France. They are still in a mess despite reports they claim they are coming out of the third wave. I think like our government it smore political posturing. Still circa 6,000 in intensive care!!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-covid-19-cases-france-increase-more-slowly-2021-04-21/

The more business Novacyt can secure the better frankly.

@troublesome
LOL, good idea perhaps Raincloud can do it to a bit of Chumawamba:-

I get knocked down
But I get up again
You're never gonna keep me down
I get knocked down
But I get up again
You're never gonna keep me down"

https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1385642928471687168/photo/1

I mean, pure genius, 360 solution LFT to PCR.
And a SMART LFT that can tell if your immune response is from infection or vaccine.

The more you research the better this gets...

Well done all holders...

I think this is going to come good here very soon

If the LFT isn't sorted sharpish so ODX can crack on with the manufacture, I think Novacyt will work with ODX.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a deal being done as i write.

Most obvious fit frankly. Issue sorted. It's a total nonsense having all this plant sitting idle whilst government continue to buy from China. Novacyt now have the finished product just needs replicating.

Good Luck All

@RichieH9
With respect you haven't been on this board when its been flooded with game playing shorter's - its been depressing
So forgive me as i relish in at least one day of sunshine here....
Onwards and upwards...
Good Luck

As a friend said "you cant stop a rolling wagon"

and this baby is now well and truly rolling....

GLA

@trk234
Indeed.
Some are subtle, place a short at say 4.40 and hope to profit at 4.20 that sort of cheap nasty grubby kind of trading... the sort that only pond life get involved in...
Would be great if Blackrock pony up this afternoon to take a further chuck.
Want to see this back in the 7s now as soon as possible...

Looking forward to US opening and hopefully further boost this afternoon
Positions us nicely going into next week
Good luck all
Pork's

Indeed an incredible update:

It looks like the "exciting long term plans for long term growth" with updates over the next few weeks adding to the SP momentum.

With today's RNS, anything can happen with short positions closing, funds buying in, in fact the the SP may well likely finish around 470 - 480p range today.

Its as good a guess as any other

Porks.

Omega, seriously let down frankly.
Sitting on a potential £ 374m order PLUS all the equipment ready to go big time and no test to manufacture
I really hope NCYT can support here and license it to them.
Anything to stop the UK buying more of that Chinese Cr@p

Thanks @Hopeful32
I know you have also battled on with this against all odds recently, on the up now,...
News flow over the next few weeks with the results, forward statements, H1 position, everything else will just add to teh momentum now
Just the boost we needed.....

This is now in full break out
Weekend media haven't got hold of it yet let alone all the shares magazines and updates to follow
Absolutely huge......

The big factor here is that Novacyt have established an enormous worldwide network of agents, resellers, distributors supplying 150 countries worldwide already.

So, this is not just a case of being a new company with a new product launch that they need to try and get to market, no, this is a case of the network is in place and overnight the product catalogue is updated, and orders can be taken immediately.

Next thing will be capacity, keeping up with supply demand. I would imagine several deals being done to further increase output.

Today’s news is just massive…

Good Luck all

Pork’s

oh and breaking 4.24 was apparently significant for chartists..

Just waiting on that 360,000 short to close, oooh ouch.... that will take some working in....

Had to be said..... LOL

@SteveV
Great - Was starting to lose the will constantly fighting off shorter's here

@Kaeren
Much Needed boost - onwards and upwards from here now!!

@Wilson63 and @Airlineboy
Holding the faith at the most grim of times - well done indeed.....

Well instead of "If Carlsberg did..." perhaps we can change that to "If Novacyt did an R&D update...."
This one is truly spectacular

LFT Antibody - differentiate between IgG antibodies
LFT Antigen - which is able to detect the virus regardless of current known mutations.
Saliva Test - critical for use in airport test and release programmes to and from certain countries
PHE Framework & NHS - Continue to supply - Now we know what the 50 new staff are doing!
It just goes on...

Good Luck all

Pork's

Speechless - WOW

Oh Goodnight Shorters

Not to mention that the entire Executive Management Team also have "Skin" in the game including the stateside exec working out of New York.

GM confirmed to Shareholders he was building long term value. I have no doubt that this is still the objective. Now the Share Price fall is fairly ****ty currently i grant you that however, they are continuing to build a great Diagnostics business. Q1 revenue excluding DHSC was over £ 35m, posters here are ignoring this glaring fact. It's not like Novacyt are running out of funds anytime soon or need a cash call is it!!!!

The fundamental value of the business is materially out of line with the share price and that will change. Heck they will have over £ 200m in cash reserves by the end of this year and the current mcap is just £ 260m - come off it....

I say again; they are building a great Diagnostics business. There will be bumps in the road, these things take time but the growth continues. Look at the state the world is in....

Further there are only 70m of shares in issue here. This is a VERY small number of shares in issue and is why as positive news starts to flow, and we are now in a heavy news flow period, the share price is so volatile and can swing very quickly in shareholders favour.

In my opinion, its worth giving GM the opportunity to deliver the results here. Within a few weeks the position will be clear and the SP will reflect a materially higher level than where we are today. If its not, the company will be a take over target for sure. Either way share holders will see a return higher than where we are now.

As it stands the Share Price represents a fire sale value. Apart from the increased short positions, shares that will need to be brought back shortly, I don't see anyone else selling. Volumes are very low. Frankly this is why the de-rampers and shorter's here are so desperate. I'm certainly not selling any of my holding that's for sure, I'm only adding .

Anyhow, lets see how the next few weeks go, I remain confident and i know a number of genuine holders here feel the same.

GLA