Member Info for Porky9

Firstly, I guess a lot comes down to your perception of this Pandemic.

Was the Vaccine the Silver Bullet to end the matter? Can we live with it like its another Flu Virus and will we have to make some significant life style changes in order to keep it in check? AND moreover as this is a global virus, How long will it take for every country to gain control? Will it keep returning in different forms? Will we face other equally nasty viruses in the future? How prepared will we be?

Covid Headlines:-

Canada sounds the alarm as cases overtake US
The rate of coronavirus infections in Canada's biggest province has reached an all-time high as hospitals warn they are close to being overwhelmed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56779428

Indian double mutation variant arrives in Britain and has 'hallmarks of very dangerous virus'
The variant - officially named B.1.617 - is almost certainly playing a part in the very sharp spike in the epidemic in India.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-indian-double-mutation-variant-arrives-in-britain-and-has-hallmarks-of-very-dangerous-virus-12276922

Germany warns of lasting economic damage as Covid cases spin out of control
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/16/germany-warns-lasting-economic-damage-covid-cases-spin-control/

Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801

Not just the UK but the entire world has had little in the way of a medical or Diagnostics infrastructure to adequately deal with this, it has only recently started building one.

The bottom line is that we all want to be optimistic here but its clear this is going to take time. This virus is NOT going away anytime soon. As with any virus we would expect variants that's the nature of how a virus develops but i don't think any of us expected to see the devastation that some of these new variants have caused. The Brazil and the South African Variants and their antibody evading qualities being of specific concern.

Appreciate this post is just pointing out the obvious, but there has been much discussion tonight on how Novacyt is valued and perception of this virus is a massive factor in that in my opinion.

All of my own calculations were based on Fundamental Values at a multiple mid range of other diagnostics businesses. I see no difference between Novacyt and other Diagnostic groups in terms of how they operate and moreover how long it would take to build a business like Novacyt to form a valuation.

The market makers meanwhile have not seen Novacyt in this way, it was on effectively a cash rating and this is because the market considered that Covid would simply "blow over" inside of 12 months we would be out of it and that would be the end. Just like the flu but we now know the situation is very different.

I can't know how long it will take for Novacyt to be properly valued but i believe as sure as hell it isn't correctly rated at the m

It's truly shocking to see this business at a mere £ 300m mcap
The work they are doing on the coal face to improve the outloook
And that's before we even consider all the people who have recovered from Covid and now suffering long covid conditions
Still look on the brightside it could be worse; you could be holding NCYT at the same time :)
Have a good weekend
Pork's

@WBAFC
A truly top guy and great researcher and loss to this board
He capitulated on the price crash, lets face it a lot of us were taken out. Awful times and easy to make a knee jerk decision. I'm hopeful he will return once further certainty is outlined.
We are all a bit in the dark here at the moment but i'm confident of better times ahead
Good Luck All

@Bluelight
I think you have a good observation there.
I have a substantial holding, last week i cared.
Now i just don't give a Fck, I'm not selling one share, either the stock gets rated properly on its fundamental values or it never recovers and i write the lot off to a bad experience.
But i'm not selling at fire sale prices, its that simple. I see no point now. £3, £2, 10 pence - can they do minus??? the whole thing is a farce and well over done.
I fail to see how any business can be on course to deliver £ 160m EBITDA this year, have £ 200m cash at bank, have possibly the best solutions in the market coupled with a market leading R&D team and only be worth £ 285m mcap
And certain posters calling for lower.
What will be will be - cai sera sera
Pork's

£ 281m mcap, what's to think about? Downgrade well overdone.
Adding
But you can understand why investors are nervous, its been horrendous recently but onto better times
Onwards and upwards
Pork's

The number of daily cases reached a new record high on 9 April, going over 9,000 for the first time since the pandemic began and considerably higher than the previous peak of just under 7,000 cases in mid-June.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801

Quick Stats:-
18 Million Population
12 million Vaccine Doses
7 Day Average 7,289 Cases
Sinovac Vaccine
Issues with Variants including the Brazil Variant
Triumphalism over the vaccine rollout and of having loosened coronavirus restrictions too fast.

With falling numbers of cases, the focus should now return to quality PCR testing only, firstly for accuracy and secondly to keep on top of Variants of Concern.

If you look at countries around the world where they have good control its typically a mix of identification by PCR and lock down. This is effectively what happens with Surge testing. Identification with a quality test and then isolation of the candidate.

What is really annoying with the government is that a decision at day one was made to order millions of Chinese LFTs. These tests were not designed for mass testing and accuracy levels are low. The data was proven. Yet they stuck arrogantly by this bad decision. They continued the path regardless under operation Moonshot.

In just the last week or so the Government ordered even more of this cr@p from China, reports of £2.8bn worth of Innova LFTs. They just do not learn.

The report in the Guardian tonight I would say probably does have substance to it: -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

It was hardly rocket science, using a sub-standard test in the first place will deliver sub standard results. No other country in the world has the love affair that our government has for the Innova Chinese RAT. It is time to wise up.

Its just a shame that the decision is likely to be no rapid tests rather than actually looking at how to improve the quality of rapid tests. Novacyt meanwhile are right to continue the roll out of mobile labs equipped with quality PCR testing solutions this is the way forward.

Despite our diabolical share price, I remain relaxed. We are supplying the rest of the world with quality PCR solutions and our sales are strong as a result.

Ultimately the SP will reflect the proven results. £ 35 million sales worldwide in Q1 Ex DHSC. I have total confidence that they will deliver £ 160m EBITDA and will have £ 200m cash at bank in this FY at which point our SP will reflect a significantly higher level than a £ 300m mcap.

As for this government’s decisions on Testing, I have kind of given up on them. I am glad that Novacyt are now fully focused on sales outside of the DHSC. The more we hear about government decisions and uturns the more we realise what a total sham these contracts are and how totally unreliable as a client the DHSC is.

Good luck shareholders.

Pork’s

Meow...

I mean come on, government contracts for LFTs don't concern us here at the moment but, look at all the awards to the Chinese Innova:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=diagnostic+kits#748945407-748486940-61

OK the others GOT UP TO the amounts declared (we now know that DHSC are not reliable) so GAD got £ 1.2bn, SureScreen £503m and Omega Diagnostics £ 374m. The bulk of the rest going Innova and next will be all the airline freight awards on top.

Ridiculous situation. Where exactly is "Buy British"??

One paper quoted that Innova will will take Orders of over £ 2.8bn from DHSC. If anything needs investigating here it is the continued purchasing of this cr@p from China.

@Naewise
Crying with laughter...
I can 100% guarantee that VanV and I are totally different people. He will likely confirm the same!!!
Although it is totally refreshing that VanV is posting really good content again, so i can well understand the confusion :)
Take Care
Pork's

Please connect with me on Twitter so i can DM you
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here

Not sure if i can be ars@ to reply to the same point being raised over and over again by de-rampers and pond life but for the sake of positivity here goes:-

What we know:-
* The dispute MAY MAY MAY affect Q4 earnings. That's JUST Q4 earnings. Then again it MAY MAY MAY not.
* The dispute is in 28 day arbitration to resolve
* The company cannot comment they can only confirm there is a dispute during this period.
* It is a regulatory requirement to declare anything that MAY affect stated earnings.
* The dispute is in neither parties best interests to drag on.

Assumptions:
* More than half the revenue in Q1 is from other business, so we can assume that at least some revenue from Q4 was also from elsewhere.
* We can also assume that its highly likely that not all of the DHSC business in Q4 is affected.
* We can conclude from that that only part of the DHSC orders in Q4 that formed part of the entire Q4 revenue MAY be affected.

My View, there are only three outcomes:-
1. This will resolve and accounts will be published unaffected
2. They will resolve and an adjustment posted against the annual accounts against Q4 sales
3. This wont resolve and drag on and accountants will put a provision in against Q4 earnings for the part of contract in dispute.

Overview
Sales for Q1 ex any DHSC were superb, over £ 35m fantastic so i see absolutely no reason why they wont hit £ 160m EBITDA this FY and have over £ 200m cash at bank.
My view is that the dispute wont change declared revenues. Solely in my own opinion i think the range is -£23m adjusted if they lose to + £27m if they win and can invoice the minimum contract value.

With a mcap of £ 300m if you think there is any more downside from here sell.
I won't be its a total farse. Further, its not like they rated the stock on its fundamental values to start with!!!! The Mcap was marked down before the crash!!!

Good luck what ever your call

I don't know exactly what the support is in Wandsworth

We were previously supplying the Assays to the lighthouse labs to identify these VOCs from surge testing. In Wandsworth the Swobs collected are being tested in labs for sure. Every chance we are involved but i don't know for sure in this location.

Also, We still don't know what part we may or may not be playing in Genotype Assay Testing of Variants that the government announced third week of march and now radio silence.

Shaun may have some data on this? But looks like we are still relatively in the dark...

Pork's

Background:

Asymptomatic Suspected person X had arrived in UK from Africa.
* Household cluster subsequently created.
* That outbreak spread to a local care home and 23 further cases reported.
* That Spread to two primary schools in Wandsworth.
* This affected numerous others passing through the area.
According to figures there have been 533 genomically confirmed cases now in the UK.
77 specifically trying to be controlled in Wandsworth but the Variant is now here.

So how do we try and contain this now, shutting the gate after the horse has bolted: -
* Start testing post code and high streets in Wandsworth and surrounding area.
* Mobile testing unit and door to door PCR home testing
* Persons identified and contacts isolate.
* Search Widens to two boroughs 650,000 tested being tested so far.
We are now in total REACTIONARY mode.

Now, I do not know about anyone else, but I am hopping mad about this and I do not live anywhere near Wandsworth. What the hell are this government playing at???

Consider at how many points above the spread of this virus could have been contained from The airport, the care home, the schools…it goes on.

We need to be more pro-active not reacting to a mess created. A decent quality PCR plan in place starting at the airport. Saliva PCR in the schools, all PCR in the care homes, proper control like how they do it in Australia. Stop playing at it.
Instead of using crappy cheap Chinese tests do the testing properly to contain.

It is total false economy not to invest in a proper testing here. How much will it cost the taxpayer to now test 650,000 people? BUT worse, that is not enough. How many will die from this ONE case. It is ONE case that in my opinion could have been contained at day one.

Thank God we have decent quality testing from Novacyt that can pick up ALL Variants. As far as i'm concerned we should be using Novacyt's testing at EVERY corner of the UK at EVERY stage. Not still messing with cheap tests out of China. Ultimately they are NOT cheap, they cost us in EVERY way.

GLA

You only need look at other diagnostic businesses and you can quickly see that the Share Price and the fundamental value of this business are not in line. The business is in serious Oversold Territory.

Time is the Institutional Investors best weapon as Retail get bored, clock watch the share price and capitulate their position. Its that simple. The question you need to ask yourself is this:

Is this business worth more or less than the current £ 300m Valuation?

Are its assets; the established R & D teams, the testing technologies developed to detect ALL known variants, its genomic testing Assays, all its patented and accredited tests and it is established networks into 150 countries only worth the current value?

Could someone come along and replicate this business for £ 300m?

This year they are on track to deliver £ 160m EBITDA and have circa £ 200m cash at bank.

So, will this business ONLY be worth £ 100m after deduction of Cash at Bank?

If you think the answer is: it is a crap business, it had its day, busted flush and its worth Jack then sell. Cut your losses at these fire sale prices and look for a new Investment.

If you think the answer is: Well Porky has a point, similar pays around are selling at 10 times or more this level then you know your answer.

Bottom line is that share holders are suffering now, mixed with a lot of uncertainty. Its a testing time in every sense of the word. Only you can make your own decisions.

You all know what my view is:

Am I giving any shares away at these prices? Am I hell? Even if they try and halve the price again am I going to sell? NOPE and that is because I have done my homework and I know this asset is worth a significant multiple of where we are today. So, for me they can manipulate this SP as much as they like ultimately the fundamental value must out.

Have faith in your convictions and remember why you invested here. Its tough now and we have been through the mill but will come out the other side in due time. Personally I'm adding at these levels

H1 report and update of position will be out in a few weeks time. This should provide the further clarity required.

Good Luck All whatever your call

Pork’s

As a side if anyone wants to connect with me - follow on twitter / i will follow back and you can DM
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here
Pork's

IMO they are likely now in the 28 day Arbitration phase. I remain totally convinced this matter will be resolved.

By the time we get the full year end results, which last year was released on 14th May 2020 and the previous year 30th April 2019 its highly likely we will have total clarity.

* Either the matter is resolved and finances adjusted if at all
* Dispute Not resolved and a possible provision made in the accounts.

Either way we will have total clarity imo - the SP has been hammered now anyhow, so the damage has been done.

GLA

Pork's

Don't you think that its absolutely Ironic that Grant Shapps is coming all this rhetoric about reducing pricing YET at the same time the DHSC build clauses into their own contract's preventing NCYT from competitively trying to undercut competition as it would hurt past results.
Copy of clause compliments of Blackbird Investing:-
https://twitter.com/BlackbirdInvest/status/1382246955250823168/photo/1

The more you research the way DHSC do business the more you realise what a totally unreliable client they are. They can award you a win on the one hand and in reality it's not worth the paper its written on. Just proves not all business is good business.

Good to see NCYT building some great sales from around the world.

GLA

We touched on this a few months back following a BMJ report on use of diagnostics to identify Cancer Tumors.
Looks like further advancements from Novacyt in this area.
Dean's Tweet on Jack Taylor Video on the case for those not seen it.
https://twitter.com/Blad3sharp/status/1382306588988481536

As a side, anyone know if anything ever came of that Care Home Video that was being produced??

@Hopeful32
£ 54 Only one answer here
Had to be done...
Take Care