Member Info for Porky9

All feels very played, amazing how we never heard a peep out of the French analyst and now "voila" they have something negative to add at a critical time... amazing, And to think Novacyt are paying these idiots.

Must be mad but added again all the same 4.18 and 4.12

£ 300m mcap - ohhh please...... are they having a fcking laugh here...

Good luck all

Morning Novacytians
Morning Trolls

May logic prevail and shorters burn in hell

Well if that is the case and under the contract they can bill for £ 150m minimum contract value then we can expect a further £23m of income.
An added bonus...

@Hydra31
Answer in two parts:-
1. Boots on the ground is obviously a material help but I see the bulk of growth being Stateside going forwards. The private sector hospital business out there is just ginormous. Bottom line is they have good network being built out there and our man in New York is a major heavy weight. Only takes one decent sized order here and transforms the business outlook yet again.

2. Its all about ROI really. Going forward based on what they just declared for Q1 ex DHSC will result in the region of £ 160m EBITDA for this year. Market Comparisons: -
* Hologic are set to acquire a PCR maker for equivalent of £580m this company made £30.6m in revenue for the YEAR !!! so paying 18x revenue. We just delivered £73m for the QUARTER!!!
* Oxford Bio is listing at £5 - £7 bn Value yet delivered £ 52m Revenue and £ 72m loss.

We sit at under £300m market cap tonight, you make your own calls.

GLA

As expected some of the "pond life" continuing to post here calling impending doom. Position is really not that bad as painted they just want to keep telling you it is..... and telling you again.... oh and telling you some more....

If you are a holder and have any concerns, read the Valuation notes here:-
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/

Anyone trying to short a stock on >X1 needs medical help frankly..

They will likely have some shorts set up late Friday and may even add some more at Open in the hope of making a few quid but these all have to be brought back. IMO The SP may be volatile tomorrow but it's going to bounce back north of £ 5.50 fairly quick so use this period to add if you can afford to and hopefully give any shorter's a spanking.

Finally, You can be confident in knowing that this business isn't going bust any time soon. It has over £ 130m cash at bank and if it was sold tomorrow it would be worth significant multiples of where it is now even on a discounted basis. So hold the faith, this is a long way from over, £ 35m non DHSC revenues in the first quarter.... amazing..

GLA

@crl123
Would you follow me on Twitter and i can exchange DM with you if you are interested?
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here
Take care now
Pork's

@Soder
LMOL, the rascal, I had no idea, Look at it as a form of flattery.

As a positive though at least a number of us are all on the same page, whichever way you do a fundamental valuation calculation you can clearly see what a totally ridiculous joke the mcap sits at currently.

Take Care now

Pork’s

The discussion on the dispute has been done to death. Only being kept alive by shorter's with specific agenda.

What's important now is the Revenue opportunities going forwards. It was impressive to see that circa 42m in quarter one was other clients, fantastic, they will keep building on this going forwards.

Be a good idea to keep this thread alive should any REAL shareholders visit here and want a read up on the valuation and opportunity here. Rather than waste time reading targeted posts to create negativity and encourage holders to sell - its hard enough as it is at the moment.

I remain positive despite how dire Fridays RNS is, here's to a better week

Pork's

Before anyone accuses me of being the same person as Blackbird Investing, I can tell you 100% that i am not BUT i do share the exact same logic and use a very similar valuation metric as this investor.
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/

Some can de-ramp further here and predict impending doom BUT review the above Valuation blog, there is still a lot more in play here. Give it chance. I totally back and agree with the Valuation.

Pork's

Exactly

And equally i can find many others on a fraction of that EBITDA per year valued at more than x14 and in the same sector. Its ridiculous but its how it is.

By H1 we will have full clarity here, certainly worth the wait. No point in selling at fire sale levels, this is the time to be buying. Retail have had a royal spanking frankly since January.

GLA

So, the market is telling us that Novacyt is worth less than £ 300m at Close Friday and may well shake the tree a bit more on Monday…

Interesting isn’t it…

Strip away anything DHSC and its still going to deliver in the region of 160m EBITDA this year and have cash at bank in the region of 170m by the year end.

Does that sound like a business only worth less than x1 when other Diagnostics groups are either in the market trading north of x14 or due to list at even higher multiples… Will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

And that is before you come onto all the IP, one of the only tests in the world to detect ALL variants, the amazing R&D they do at Novacyt. As a pure R&D play its worth more than £300m.

But if you are uncomfortable with that sell. If you think it is a busted flush, cut your losses and run BUT I do not see it that way. The world is in a bloody mess frankly and its going to take years to get any kind of worldwide vaccine immunity and protections in place and that is even before we consider the Variants of concern. Just look at the damage the Brazil variant is currently doing. We need to be on the look out for that and testing for it.

As for the dispute that “May” affect historic earning. I can tell you now 100% that it wont. How can I be so confident? Well put simply, they either delivered goods OR they did not. If the goods were delivered and they were not faulty they have to be paid for.

It is no good trying it on after the event to try and squeeze the price or say we did not need as much product as we got or whatever, even an “implied” order, without a signed contract would result in payment!!!! And I have personally tested this principle for a business I do some work on and I can tell you the client paid!!!

As for future business well, business is business. Many suppliers with far bigger disputes still supply the DHSC, they either need the products or they do not. Currently DHSC have enough Promate this year, but its shelf life is 18 months so you can likely expect more orders in the next FY. Covid is not going away, we now need to learn to live with it and hospitals will need to test.

I have taken a beating here on the SP for sure but just as Fridays News crashed the SP, the opposite can occur if they can get it right and turn this around and I believe that they can. We will know soon enough.

GLA

I await with interest what the Next Gen Antibody Test is likely to offer. Will it tell us what % level we are at??
If it did that really would be something wouldn't it ? Is it even possible to deliver that??
The pathway Range includes our recent rapid Antibody LFT to confirm if you have Antibodies or not:-
https://microgenbioproducts.com/pathflow-2/

But there is a Race on to develop something better. The FDA have circa 75 on the list BUT they are all either YES /NO you have Antibodies or not tests OR take a blood test and post back to the lab. An example was one that got FDA last week:-
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/symbiotica-s-self-collected-covid-19-antibody-test-becomes-first-to-receive-fda-emergency

So why do i care IF Novacyt can get this right or not? Well put simply, in countries where the Vaccine rate is high such as Israel they are actively seeking accurate Antibody tests. People want to know if they need a Vaccine Booster, if having got over Covid if they still have antibodies or not.

So I see this as potentially quite a big additional revenue line, bigger than we have probably considered and i can see a demand for a cheap chuck away LFT to confirm YES/No along with demand for a more premium test that can give you further accuracy.

We have finger prick tests for diabetes to tell you blood / sugar ratios:-
https://www.accu-chek.co.uk/lancing/fastclix
But i do respect that one for Covid is going to be significantly more complex to get right. We do have at least possibly one of the best R&D teams on the case...

GLA

Could it @James1919
Could the SP fall under its own Cash at Bank level? Really
And i might start flying,.,,

Firstly, in view of the high volumes of totally desperate Sell, Sell, Sell and Sell now messages here its likely we may see some conveniently placed shorts on Monday morning to further depress the share price and try and encourage selling.
Do remember that any short positions must be brought back.

So, we can probably expect some further volatility of the share price on Monday. However, despite this, I remain greatly confident of a Bounce Back on the Share Price and this is why:-

Financials: -
* Q1 revenues are £73m (83m euro) as confirmed yesterday. Stripping out DHSC and excepting any large new contracts (we are still in several tenders) annual revenue will be north of 182m.
* 2021 EBITDA likely to be in the region of £ 146m on the revised basis.
* Cash at Bank at Year end on Adjusted Basis in the region of £ 175m (Totally Debt Free)

Business: -
* Supplying to 150 countries
* Established Network, supplying numerous governments, hospitals, private sector settings and international markets.
* Still supplying UK NHS

R & D Capabilities: -
* Novacyt have possibly the best R & D Unit worldwide. They are totally ahead of the curve.
* ONLY Covid test that can detect ALL Variants.
* Supporting COG-U and the world to keep on top of Variants
* Very Impressive Mobile Lab Solutions
* Next Gen Antibody test due for release shortly this Quarter
* What now looks like a possible Antigen LFT this Quarter based on Trading Update wording
Additional products can only add to revenues.

Valuation: -
* Market Cap is now under £ 300m.
* Deducting Cash at Bank £ 175m from Mcap of £ 300m Values all Novacyt’s IP and assets at £125m.
* The current SP is saying the business is next to worthless
But is it? Is this all the business is worth? I don't think so do you? If this is how its going to be GM should just sell up now for best price frankly?

Market Comparisons: -
* Hologic are set to acquire a PCR maker for equivalent of £580m this company made £30.6m in revenue for the YEAR !!! so paying 18x revenue. We just delivered £73m for the QUARTER!!!
* Oxford Bio is listing at £5 - £7 bn Value yet delivered £ 52m Revenue and £ 72m loss.

At this level, I'm NOT selling that's for sure.
I want to see how events play out here, see the full accounting position, see the full H1 results, see what they release, any acquisitions they make, the new products due out and what move the IIs like Black Rock Make.

Having been fully backing this business I want to at least give GM the chance to deliver. I am not giving up over this one business issue that i believe can be overcome, it's not insurmountable and everything is still in play here.

GLA whatever your own call

Pork's

Something else to consider, during Fridays trading update they stated:-

"New COVID-19 lateral flow products are also under development, to expand the Company's ability to meet evolving COVID-19 testing demands"

We are awaiting the next gen Antibody test due for release at any moment now BUT could this statement also point to an Antigen test as well????? Will we see further additions to the Pathflow range? There are a number of manufacturers chomping at the bit for a product to make......
https://microgenbioproducts.com/pathflow-2/

One thing that Novacyt are brilliant at is R & D, never let us down at any point to date in this direction.

Further I'm bloody sick of politicians like Grant Shapps trying to play the lets save money card. I would remind him we are in part of the mess we are in and have more deaths per 1,000 on our hands than practically ANY other country in the world because a) we didn't secure and test at our borders properly in the first place and b) we purchased cr@p cheap LFTs from china (and are still doing so) which moonshot identified which allowed the virus to spread.

If reports are true, they are about to reward the Chinese via Innova a £ 1.2 bn order for LFTs oh and lets not forget we will have tens of millions of costs on top of that in flight costs because we will have to arrange shipping from China !!! So much for buy British.

It's all very well and good of Grant Shapps to try and play the "People Hero" but there is a cost to R&D, there is a cost to lab processing and there is a cost to buying quality and a cost for staff!!!

Novacyt charge about £10 a test but if you have to man a mobile test unit, pay rent, costs at the airport to run these tests, of course costs will start mounting. You only have buy a bacon Sandwich at the Airport and its three times what it would cost you elsewhere due to all the overheads.

If the objective is to stop variants entering the UK you want to be dam sure the test to do that is up to standard. Likewise the ROW doesn't want to import more virus or want further variants from us!!!

Frankly the likes of Easy Jet would vote "no testing" at all if it meant aircrafts full of holiday makers but we are not in that place yet. We need to test properly and test with quality end of.

Whacking manufacturers is not the answer. Especially the ones that are helping keep the UK safe from VOC

Shorting Syndicates

Only takes a team of three people with three account alias names to flood a board with negative thread titles telling you to sell, the world is ending and get out now,

We know about Fridays news, damage done. Don’t anyone fall for it, None of these names were posting on Thursday were they!

@Hopeful32
Thanks - We have to remain positive, these are testing times for us in every sense of the word :)

The board here has had a lot of new posters today, shorting punters, looking to encourage retail sales to make a few quid. I am not interested. £ 170m net value, you make your choices.

Nobody said investing was easy....

Take care

Pork's

A number of shorter's about but consider this:-

After todays crash the Mcap is now under £ 300m. We know that Q1 revenues are 83m as they were confirmed yesterday. We can also deduce from that cash at bank has to be at least £ 130m at this point.

So we are talking about a value for the R &D capability at Novacyt and all the IP and business assets of £ 170m

Hologic are set to acquire a PCR maker for equivalent of £580m this company made £30.6m in revenue for the YEAR !!! so paying 18x revenue. We just delivered 83m for the QUARTER !!!

We still supply NHS its just they have sufficient pro-mate stock for current needs. Stripping this client out all together as confirmed 50% of sales were other clients so it was still over 40m in the quarter!!! without them. We don't know exactly what the dispute is about? is it pricing? can it be resolved? Its not in the DHSC interests either to have disputes. Far better to resolve them, if it is resolved this would change the landscape again.

Then we have the next gen Antibody test to be released shortly which will add to revenues and the increasing demand for Versalab all not just adding to future revenues but also bolstering the IP and asset values. Don't forget we are the ONLY test to detect ALL variants. Its the VOCs that are causing the world wide issues.

Then we come onto Blackrock and the other IIs. Are they going to roll over and take the hit? Or are they going to be on the phone to other clients saying cracking R&D business in the UK, net value £ 170m, you may as well push a TO? That's what I would do in their position.

So, if you really think this is a busted flush, then support the shorters chasing a few quid and sell out, if you think there is more value here than £ 170m then stick with it. Give it until say the H1 is confirmed to end of June (only 1o weeks or so now) and see then at that point, you will at least know for sure EXACTLY what the position is and have the visibility.

I know what i'm doing, its worth more than this all day long, but good luck all whatever your call. Remember its only a loss once you sell and crystalise that loss.

GLA