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I'm can't help but think we will be in some form of lockdown before the summer is out. Rinse n repeat.
Vaccines alone will not get us out of this, I fear we are going to have to get used to a new normal for quite a while which includes social distancing, masks in public spaces and lots of testing. Everyone needs to wise up to this. Not sure if anyone watched the documentary Hospital on BBC2 last night.
The harsh reality of covid was laid bare, it's impact on the NHS, not just from covid but its impact on other healthcare.
I hope I'm wrong I can't see us getting out of this cycle for a long time

@B2H, possibly but we've not heard the outcome of the dispute yet and the clock is ticking on the kits novacyt have already produced which will already be several weeks into their shelf life, not sure what the time frame is but I'll find out. As I said, it's conjecture on my part, nothing more. I've just posted again on another thread about my general position on Novacyt, I'm a LTH and daily fluctuations don't really concern me, novacyt aren't going bust anytime soon so happy to play the long game

@crl123
I'm with you, long term hold.
Covid revenues are to be welcomed but, for me, its the long term growth in value areas I'm more invested in.
They are changing the face of diagnostics. They will be pivotal in moving quality diagnostics out of the formal laboratory setting and right next to the patient.
This cuts across so many settings globally, from infectious diseases, environmental settings and most importantly oncology.
Over time, novacyt will improve and simplify testing in all these areas.
They have already proven their skill set and have their first foot on the ladder and have set out their stall very impressively in their response to covid.
For me, for many reasons, its the work in oncology that with be completely transformative.
I can forsee, in the coming years, getting a definitive cancer diagnosis at very early stages in the cancer pathway via simple blood tests, this could even take place in the GP surgeries themselves.
Whilst a cancer diagnosis is never great, the earlier you get the diagnosis the better.
Current systems are very time consuming, subjective and labour intensive. Novacyt has the potential and capability to circumvent all of this.
I'm both a cancer survivor and an ex biomedical scientist who has worked in these settings.
If you're a day trader, I've said this before, this is no longer a share for you. If you are interested in a solid company with an already proven track record in innovation and delivery for long term gain, you're in the right place.
Definately a long term hold

Possibly but then they would have the headache of the logistics, taking delivery and organising distribution.

No evidence to back any of this up but IMO, the dispute regarding DHSC was of over ordering by government.
Novacyt will have tooled up and provided the amount of reagents that were requested, the situation changed over time and the government preferred LFTs.
Novacyt probably has a letter of intent or contract to supply the ordered volume.
These kits have a finite shelf life, so rather than them be discarded, they have chosen to donate them to UNICEF, they can be used on platforms other than the Q machines.
The optimistic me thinks that if Novacyt have chosen to give these away rather than at least try to sell them indicates that they have been paid for these tests now, government doesn't want them and aren't going to burn thru a million tests in the NHS so they should be put to use for 'free ' in other countries that do need them.
Its the only explanation to me that makes sense.
Just pure conjecture on my part

Government has as much money as it needs, we are a sovereign nation, with a fiat currency, we can literally print money. Don't fall for the guff comparing a nations budget to a household one

I'm a little confused, we have this dispute with DHSC, which is still ongoing.
Yet, there were meetings going on with the TVG and all the labs using Q machines to expedite implementation.
These meetings have now matured into just user group meetings to help facilitate roll out.
This hardly feels like the plug has been pulled on novacyt products.
We are not out of the Covid storm, rather we are in the eye of said storm.
Hospitals are gearing up now for the next wave. The Indian variant is a cause for concern. Make the most of the lifting of restrictions, we will be in lockdown again before the end of the year

@shotter, thanks for your insights much appreciated, if you look back thru my posts you will see I've been saying this for quite a while now.
Hospitals are now preparing for the next wave, so they are at least using this time wisely.
Don't assume anything, you just end up looking like a t it

Whilst losing nrly 70% of my investment isn't the nicest of things to watch. I'm holding on.
The UK last lockdown was very successful in bringing down the numbers and get things are under control.
The perception in the UK at least appears to be that the pandemic is over, job done.
I'm afraid I don't share that optimism. One only has to look away from these to see that covid is tearing through other countries at a rapid rate.
The government should now be doubling down on building up capacity for testing, ready for, as Johnson freely admits, the next wave, repairing the roof, whilst the sun shines.
Although the number of positive cases has thankfully plummeted, the volume of testing remains high, especially in the acute hospital setting.
I fear we are not out of this yet, rather the eye of the storm.
Its inevitable that a variant will emerge thats resistant to the vaccine and off we will go again.
Testing, social distancing, vaccinations and contact tracing are here for the foreseeable future.

The testing, tracing etc processes will mature and develop. Novacyt are part of this process, think global too, not just UK, AIM markets seem to focus on the here and now or with a very limited Horizon.

I'm investing for the next 10 yrs, thats my personal time frame. The share price volatility will continue at the whims of market sentiment.
I invested in nova as the company has good foundations, good products, excellent R&D.
Unless I sell now, I've not lost a penny, so will keep my powder dry and ride out these storms, they will pass.
Hard to keep the faith at the moment but good luck to us all.

Bit longer term but I'm looking at oncology diagnostics as being the main branch of nova business

Not journey ffs, you, I meant, damn autocorrect

@leepot I've read your post a couple of times, no idea what it is you are trying to say, could journey elucidate a little clearer please

Why do others gloat at some one else's losses, we all invest in the hope to make money, I find it really odd

I agree, UK isn't the only player.
I also saw a comment on here today about VHS vs Beta max, betamax was the far better product but lost out.
That was about watching films, this is about saving lives. To coin a phrase, no test is better than a bad test. Everyone assumes because of the vaccine and the low numbers now that we are out of this, I'm afraid I don't share that optimism. More variants now than I can keep up with.

Well that was a massive, steel toe delivered squarely to the nuts.
Having mused over this today, my following thoughts are.
1) Don't panic, even though I'm showing a 5 figure loss.
2) Only invest money you can afford to lose on AIM
3) Novacyt aren't very good at comms
4) Uptake of the Q32 has been a lot slower in the NHS pathology labs than expected
5) As a result of 4 lots of capacity still exists within the terms of the original contract, so DHSC does not want to commit to buying more when they perceive they 'have enough'
6) Novacyt have tooled up in anticipation of phase 2, probably at great expense, now DHSC says they don't want it, so, understandably, nova a bit miffed, I suspect this is the reason for dispute.

So where does this leave us now?

Sh1 t creek and paddle was my first thought tbh, however, having thought about it, I've gone back to fundamentals

It's a great product, there's no denying that, its TVG approved for use in both labs and more importantly POCT testing.
Requirement for testing isn't going away soon.
Testing numbers in pathology labs remain as high as ever, positivity rate negligible now but testing Requirement remain and will continue to remain for the foreseeable.
The UK is not the only market, our European friends and other worldwide countries are still in the thick of covid.

I'm not going to lie, today's RNS shocked me. Now is a time for calm heads. I'm going to let the dust settle and the SP stabilise.
If I were sales director now, I'd be drawing up a strategy to move forward, focusing initially on non UK markets, there's still a huge worldwide demand for Covid gold standard testing, focus on that and get a mobile, well educated sales force to push that home.
Stress that this is not a bespoke covid platform, the testing catalogue speaks for itself, leverage that to extend the reach.
Novacyt hasn't become a bad company overnight, its lost its biggest single client, no one can argue that is good news, time now to cast the net wider.
I've decided to hold, I was always planning on being a LTH and today hurts but fundamentally its still a good prospect.
Oncology diagnostics is going to be the rainmaker long term.

I would like to think Novacyt are across all of this and are/have developed a strategy to accommodate this.
It's never good in business to be solely dependent on 1 client.

Another positive, 300 machines now sat in pathology labs across England that can be used for a plethora of different tests.

Bad day, its happened, move on.
Its only money FFS.

I'm hanging in, its entertaining if nothing else. I'd urge everyone to have a think before doing anything, a loss is only a loss if you cash out.
I think I may be pinging my CV to Novacyt, fancy a challenge.

Dealing with the UK government is pants btw, once in dispute the relationship is over, cut losses and move on.

Tomorrow will be a better day

Just to add, these labs were thrown together at massive cost, are predominantly staffed by unqualified ppl and are not accredited. There was no need for them, if they had distributed the kit to properly accredited labs with qualified staff it would have worked.
Reagents were actively diverted away from NHS labs so even though they had capacity they couldn't help. Its still rationed to this day. Cronyism at its best, some ppl have made obscene amounts of money out of this pandemic

Covid HT was being trialled in the lighthouse labs. I've heard nothing negative about them so far. The gov are backing uk home grown companies. If things continue to go well the large capacity analysers will be replaced with Covid HT as contracts expire.
We are still a very long way from being over this, the number of variants now is getting ridiculous, upto 10 now, a new one every week almost.
The easy which covid jumps species and then back to humans is very worrying. Most significant mutations appear when this happens

I've not really anything to add thats not already been said. NHS sites continue to go live for Covid testing. The situation now is that the positivity rate has plummeted, that said the level of testing continues at the same rate mostly.
Labs are now looking into the novacyt catalogue to see what else they can use the Q machines for, so from this I would surmise a revenue stream will continue post pandemic (if we ever get out of this.)
From all the info available is increasingly likely that phase 2 has been sorted, although I think it will be different from the original phase 2, I suspect that there will be more in it.
The number of jobs being advertised, the geographical spread of those.
The number of distributors globally has all increased significantly recently.
If novacyt didn't have a healthy order book, this wouldn't be happening on this scale.
Long term, the government is spending 22 billion on UK based genomic companies, UK gov sees genomics as the next IT sector so is backing it to the hilt. Novacyt should inevitably benefit.
Frustrating seeing the share price bounce around so much but I suspect the current SP will look very cheap by the end of the year

In other news.... its been reported that the sky's blue and pig free.

Tbf they have expected this to happen, hence the 5 week break between each stage of lifting lockdown. Just depends how much it spreads. Sadly lots more ppl are going to die from this

Currently 40% down, bought first at start of last rise, was about 50% in about 3 weeks, got greedy, doubled down at near the peak £11 ish, to immediately see it tank.
Long term hold deffo, lots more to come over next 5 years.
From all the info available now beginning to think Porkys valuations aren't that far out, just think it will take longer.
Pension share for me