Member Info for PoeBardem

RiverOtter - It doesn't take behind the scenes knowledge to assume that an acquirer can not be seen to be acquiring a company at many multiples of a public price. It just doesn't happen in the listed space. Private sales are only down to what the potential acquirers are willing to pay as there is no market assumption on the "price".

It also doesn't take inside knowledge or anything special to guess that the types of investors holding majority share in the company are unlikely to be happy with a 30% upside on £1.80 - £2 sp. Based on public info some of these investors have been in for 7 years+ and likely hold averages above £2.

Interesting article River Rotter. One key question the article doesn't seem to address. Most recent M&A in the podcast space is private / unlisted companies? It doesn't take much to assume the so called 'failed sale and Singapore Sling' is most likely related to the difference between the public price and the arguably fair exit price (for the 6th biggest US podcast network) I suspect majority shareholders were looking to achieve. I can only speculate that if the price had been nearer £4-5 the sale might have happened at a typical listed co premium / acceptable public premium for the buyer. Perhaps a good thing that management and majority holders want to achieve similar exits to the market and won't just sell out at any price? The outcome may cause dilution, but number of shares held is the number of shares held at exit. The closer to the $200m+ (sp of £8+)of recent acquisitions the better even if it takes investment to get there?

Losing Less - no company even if it's an easy purchase (your Spotify example) will buy at £4-6 if the price is 190p. They don't want to publicly look like the overpaid on the sp. The problem was the difference between the price and what the management were willing to sell for I expect. The Chairman made a few buys this week. Is he misguided? Key shareholders with significant sums invested seem to see a bright future for Boom (covid or not) and a much higher price ( the latest bought in at 225 and also has a good track record?). It's rarely a good strategy to invest on the basis of sell speculation. If one believes in the mid to long term opportunity buy or hold, if not, sell. Tis the game.

Agree Hedgehog
Skid - The RNS clearly mentions discussions went far along, but they will have put it up for sale looking for a certain figure min. Possibly hoping the share price would rise to a more reasonable level during the process. Most agree the sp is 2-3x lower than it should be even though each update has been good news, good progress since last year. There are private companies with similar balance sheets being acquired at $150-$200m 6-10x Boom's sp value. You would take £4, but why would management or some of the big wealthy shareholders accept this? They don't need to sell, they are not distressed sellers. AudioBoom is the 6th largest podcast network in the US and just did a deal with Rogers in Canada ($14b revenue co?). The only thing holding back a £7+ sale is a listing and low share price?

Skid35 "I am not sure a continuation of strong revenue growth in excess of the market and getting to a breakeven position will do this."

The irony - sale would probably come if more bought in on better investment reasoning such as positive progress, potential growth of the 6th biggest podcaster in the US and undervalued price rather than sale speculation.

Understand your frustration Gunner, but I understand the SPV is there to avoid that, numbers have been improving with each results update., new deal with Rogers Media...
Only management and Raine will have that insight I should think, but you could assume it will have results/outcomes tied to it.

Even if you are right Gunner, it will be because the SP which is ridiculously cheap is too far away from what Boom's majority stakeholders want as a minimum. The company has consistently released positive progress over the last year. They aren't going to sell it cheap, they don't need to (you may have noticed one of them has a yacht more expensive than the company).
If this happens there will perhaps be a flood of potential buyers who are currently inside looking at the opportunity to buy a stake cheap while the SP is undervalued. Not a bad strategy if you want to buy one of the 6th largest podcast networks in the US.
So it either is in final discussions on an offer which could mean a buyout announcement above the current price or the price goes up when insiders/potential acquirers start to buy.

While you could understand the point about past poor management decisions, poor management since the new chairman joined? The company has consistently put out solid quarterly updates over the last 18 months, positive news RNSs, not to mention they are 6th in the US top 15 podcast networks. By comparison to Stitcher's recent acquisition price, Boom should be 3-4x current market value. The market appears to dislike, is not recognising the stock or progress made.
Tthe only thing that seems to move the share price at the moment is rumors of a sale or not, but I am doubtful the key shareholders will sell this cheap just for a quick sale. The 6th US podcast network with the main shareholders/ backers it has in a growing market is hardly a distressed seller. So no offer outcome of this process is because suitors didn't match the desired price. Not selling cheap is in the interest of shareholders. Who would want a cheap price? Speculating there could be many outcomes, merger, Boom acquiring businesses, strategic deal... Insiders will not be able to buy shares currently and that will include any companies / buyers who have been in the data room during this offer period. On an assumption that a suitable offer isn't reached, perhaps these current insiders see an opportunity to buy big cheap when they are no longer inside. Therefore, sale or not could be upside either way. Many potential outcomes, but the company is progressing in the right direction and any which way the SP would appear to be in bargain basement right now.

Good update from the management. Very different and much more grown up than the company of 2 years ago. In context the company is growing faster than the average industry growth and is on track despite covid 19. Some challenges, but very clearly covid19 related which will be the same for the industry, to be expected. The fact they have not suffered more is very interesting. The FD also clearly highlighted their strict control on the numbers and focus on continuous improvement which is showing in the progress made. The SPV is only used where necessary to secure the best content partner deals. Investors on these forums often criticize the spv, yet the FD clearly stated this is there to ensure they can always secure the content that is the life blood of the business and it was to avoid using an equity solution that would dilute investors. They mentioned on track for profitability as expected.
Takeover code restricts any detail on the sale process, but with the m&a that has been happening in the space a sale at some point soon still likely. In the meantime, the company are on track and improve with each update.

Page 5 of United States - April 13 - May 10
https://www.tritondigital.com/resources/podcast-reports

For sure the undervaluation is obvious and will be factored into the offer price in the current sales process.

Wondery raised £15mm and ranked 4th
Valuation in the $100s of Millions
hxxps://www.crunchbase.com/organization/wondery#section-overview

Audioboom 6th and currently $30 million based on the share price

Audioboom undervalued?

It's moving because Triton have released reports showing Audioboom as top 6 for Podcasting Networks above Fox, NBC etc...
https://www.tritondigital.com/resources/podcast-reports

Share price up 9%. Maybe someone knows something is about to happen?

Unlikely to be relevant now. Sales process well under way with heavy hitting M&A firm in the US. buyout appears to be imminent?

Wow Cipro - Thinking small at £3. Most recent comparable M&A (similar revs etc..) was at $200mm. That would be £14 for Boom. Perhaps not that high in this market, but considering Candy who could block a shareholding with his stake is probably averaged at £2.50-3.00. Common sense suggested minimum of £4 buyout. The recent RNSs are carefully worded, but if they are publicly saying good interest, it's most likely going well. Either way the share price is a steal right now.

Chairman's comment in the last RNS
"A number of interested parties are actively engaged in the process, and currently potential buyer interest in Audioboom suggests the process will stay the course"
Seems unlikely the Chairman would say something like this so publicly if a sale wasn't highly likely very soon. My guess, it's quite far down the line

It doesn't take much to think of over 10 large companies who want into this space. Boom is a quick way in. $200mm+ my guess

Good points. If you look at recent M&A in the space. £10 a share seems likely.