Member Info for PL75

Not sure, best ask Rolly

The commercial model doesn’t make the margins explicit for the production phase but does suggest 18% for pre production. They’re effectively giving them the machinery for a quid and they’ve given them ‘funds’ pre production that will be recouped. It’s not clear if 18% is gross or net or how it relates to the maximum contract value. It appears to relate more to a margin on top of their costs, but let’s ignore that and calculate something else...

The two contracts total 1.5bn and the previous announcement said they would make up to 200m tests. This suggests about £7.50 a test which seems a sensible starting point. Applying 18% gives them about £1.35, Stifel’s 35% gives us £2.62. All seems reasonable, but it’s just a bit more wild speculation to throw in to the mix.

I don’t think any conclusions can be drawn as the two contracts are 95%+ identical. The difference is that GAD are related to Mologic. Both contracts reference a mysterious test developer. Yes, it could be us, might well be us, why not, it is us... no inferences can firmly be drawn yet though.

We definitely have a contract with Mologic and GAD produced our CV batches and are currently pumping out the first commercial batches, for now, that’ll do. It’ll get CE marked ‘shortly’ and we’ll see what happens next. Given the quality of the test and the level of demand, we’ll certainly sell them. If the govt want a few too, why not. If they don’t due to the obstructive PD gatekeepers, never mind

The ODios contract still references the test developer...

Perhaps talk to them about it, thankfully we don’t have to suffer having a child run a Twitter account #InClassicColinWeDontTrust

They been working together for some time according to PresAl, certainly before the collaboration was announced. Is it us? Yeah, feck it, why not?

Quick question on the logic though... why aren’t the same clauses in the ODious contract? Perhaps because they’re making Mologic tests and they have a CE mark themselves? Weird situation with ODious making Mologic, but Mologic contracting with GAD to make ours. We’d still take the bulk of the volume. Perhaps they read this BB and they’ve gone with my idea of using the 100% sensitive game changer test for green light and want to have a different 100% specific test for red light second confirmatory tests - oh hang on, according to the IFU, it’s not 100%....

Dunno, I’ve blocked that clown blackbird who just posts complete cr’p.

Those clauses are for the supplier, not the test developer. Given the supplier is using govt machines and standard components, there’s not much ip for them to be concerned about

So the ‘test developer’ with the magic IP remains a mystery....

In other news ODious have made sure to p’ss on the bonfire by tweeting that nowt’s changed #ClassicColin

GAD are. ODious are just providing the drinks service

Look at how rubbish the performance data is... :-)

Stifel suggested margins of 35% on revenues of mid single digits per test, there’s a clue for you. Using those margins, £1.50 is conservative. Your desired £100m revenue can be banked with 20m tests at a very conservative £5 a test. Do you think we’ll manage that? Bear in mind the significant demand in Europe and the minimum suggestion of 5m per month production. Plenty numbers for you to think about there. You should try putting numbers together, not just plucking arbitrary ones out your posterior.

Rolly, those manufacturer contracts are the maximum values. Ask ODX how much they made from their pointless antibody test contract. If you believe they’ll end up getting £1.4bn, what planet are you on to think that the owners of the IP will end up with only £50m. The levels of stupid on this board continue to dazzle and amaze me...

For a company that’s just revealed £3.6m revenue for 17 months, you don’t think the current market cap will be justified when bringing in £50m for an initial contract with more to come, whilst also transitioning in to a clinical stage biotech? You think an additional £50m makes a difference? Deals starting to arrive will be a massive step for what was a tiny company.

The first deal(s) will be small as our initial capacity will be small. We’re not going to sign a deal for a billion tests if we can only initially supply at 5m a month. Chances are we’ll not know both the number of tests and the revenue anyway as that immediately means losing the ability to negotiate

Fascinating expert level stuff Rolly. I’m assuming you do this kind of analysis professionally?

Just to confirm, you think that £100m is good because it sounds nice, but £50m is bad because it’s smaller? You think the former will get us to £5, but the latter will see the SP suffer? So, the share price is currently on a knife edge due to a difference of £50m revenue? By the way, the market cap moved by £50m today...

The protection of IP absolutely screams affimers. I think it's us, it could be us. Wonder if it's us?

Correct. Bit weird though eh? Mologic are named, yet not named but have entered in to a contract with 'someone' to access their IP, perhaps 'someone' aren't listed on Page 40 as they're a third party and have a separate contract with Mologic.

That was freaky Mikey...

Is the lack of redaction for Mologic in 3.1.10 a mistake?

Mologic are redacted on page 40. Given the alphabetical order, it’s pretty pointless :-D